NFL trade grades: It's time to admit the Aaron Rodgers deal was a heist

If things never turn out how you think they will, then don't they technically always turn out the way you think they will? Is that deep?

Anyway, the Aaron Rodgers era in New York has been far more dramatic off the field and far less productive on the field than even the most cynical of Jets fans dreaded. That might not actually be true because the most cynical Jets fan is probably a really scary person, but you know what I mean.

We're about 20 months removed from the trade which sent Rodgers from Green Bay to New York, and with today's news from Ian Rapoport that Rodgers is a "long-shot" to return as New York's quarterback in 2025, that trade can be viewed more totally. Sure, some of the draft picks involved became players who can still develop and grow, but for the most part, we know the results of this blockbuster. They look really good for Green Bay.

NFL Trade Grades: Will McDonald Saves This Trade From Being a Full Robbery

Jets fans, we're going to start with a positive here: Will McDonald IV is really good. The former Iowa State Cyclone was snagged by New York with the first-round pick that Green Bay sent in the deal as kind of a "sure, take it" pick. In his second season, McDonald has posted 8 sacks and 2 forced fumbles, playing like a reliable presence on the edge for New York.

Okay, sorry, I'm all out of good news. Because the main piece of this trade — Rodgers himself — was an enormous disappointment. Some of that isn't his fault (we're not going to blame someone for tearing their Achilles) but when he returned this season, his on-field play and the needless drama he brought to this locker room this season were some of the main cultprits in the Jets season tanking.

The Packers got a haul in the Aaron Rodgers trade

Green Bay, manwhile, is loving this trade almost two years later. Strangely enough, the best asset on paper — New York's 2023 first-round pick (No. 13 overall) isn't the pick that is paying the most dividends for Green Bay. That pick was used on Lukas Van Ness, a defensive end who has been a backup for the Packers to this point in his career. At a few points this season, Van Ness has flashed the edge-rushing ability that made him an early first-round pick last season, but the production for his career has been a letdown.

The second round pick Green Bay got in last year's draft was used on Luke Musgrave, a tight end from Pac-2 powerhouse Oregon State, who posted an extremely promising rookie season, only to miss most of 2024 due to ankle surgery. Still, Musgrave should return in 2025 as one of Jordan Love's favorite targets.

Green Bay also got a second-round pick in the 2024 Draft in the trade, which it actually traded (only moving down 4 spots, so we're still going to count this as the pick acquired from New York) on linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out of Texas A&M. He's been an immediate difference-maker for the Packers defense, showing a versatility that defensive coordinators swoon over.

Evan Williams, a safety from Oregon, has shown potential lock-down abilities as a rookie, too. He was drafted with the 111th pick in this year's draft, another one that Green Bay received from New York.

All in all, this is a roaring win for Green Bay, and it could have been in consideration for best (or worst, depending on who you ask) trade of all time if the Packers drafted Will McDonald IV with that No. 13 pick in the 2023 Draft. So, if you think about, the Packers actually did the Jets a favor there.

But adding a tight end who can pass and block, a linebacker who can do everything, a safety who flies to the ball on every play, and getting Aaron Rodgers off your team is still a great trade, even if it could have been better.

New York is saved by McDonald's production from an F in this trade, but not by much; Rodgers has been a disaster and now the Jets are tasked with finding another franchise quarterback for 2025 and beyond.

New York Jets trade grade: D+
Green Bay Packers trade grade: B