NFL Week 11 picks, predictions for every game (Straight-Up and ATS): Can Bills stop the Chiefs?

The Kansas City Chiefs performed another Houdini act, the Dallas Cowboys are even more of a disaster when Dak Prescott isn't on the field (who would've thought!), the Pittsburgh Steelers won a classic with the Washington Commanders, and the Detroit Lions kept winning despite Jared Goff throwing five picks. Just another week in this crazy league is now behind us, but now we move on and into our NFL Week 11 predictions.

Speaking of those aforementioned Chiefs, on Sunday, they'll renew the Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes rivalry with another showdown against the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City is obviously the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL entering Week 11. However, Allen and the Bills have been getting hot and, perhaps more importantly, have dominated this rivalry in this decade in the regular season. Will they hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season?

We'll unpack that and the rest of our picks this week as we dive into our full NFL Week 11 predictions after another great week. Let's keep it rolling!

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2024 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 84-52 (Last Week: 11-3) | ATS Record: 75-61-0 (Last Week: 11-3)

NFL Week 11 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

Teams on bye in NFL Week 11: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Despite the headliners of Chiefs-Bills, Ravens-Steelers and even Packers-Bears (not to mention a sneaky awesome Bengals-Chargers game on Sunday Night Football), there is a ton of intrigue around the rest of the NFL Week 11 slate.

How will the Falcons rebound after a brutal loss to the Saints, especially on the road against a Broncos team also reeling after the blocked field goal loss? Was the Sam Darnold revertigo last week, even in a Vikings win, the start of a trend or are the Titans the cure? Can Drake Maye and the Patriots keep shocking teams by surprise, this time the Rams? Obviously, we're leaning on the Falcons, Vikings and Pats (against the spread, at least) to do just that but it's going to be fascinating to see.

Toughest NFL Week 11 predictions to make

Chiefs at Bills (-2.5)

Obviously, this is a tough matchup. On one hand, the Chiefs have not lost this season, so why would we think that would start now? At the same time, the Bills also come into this matchup short-handed as Keon Coleman has already been ruled out and Amari Cooper has missed the last two games. And yet, I keep coming back to this game being in Buffalo and just the Bills having looked crisper of late.

I do think that Josh Allen and the Bills offense will find the right ways to attack Steve Spagnuolo's defense, especially with a need still present opposite Trent McDuffie in the secondary. Meanwhile, the Buffalo defense should be able to find success against a Chiefs offense that just doesn't look right at this point. So I'm going with the Bills, but I'd be lying if I said it felt comfortable going against Kansas City at this point.

Falcons (+2.5) at Broncos

As I mentioned, you have a Falcons team that ostensibly laid an egg against the rival Saints now going across the country to face a Broncos team that probably should've beaten the rival Chiefs last week. And yet, I'm going with Atlanta to get the win on the road.

One thing that is both infuriating but also potentially advantageous when trying to predict the Falcons is that they might just simply be incredibly volatile. Their best weeks look among the most impressive in the NFL and their worst weeks are on the opposite end of that spectrum. Denver, on the other hand, pretty much is who it is at this point. The Broncos will play great defense, be relatively consistent on offense behind Bo Nix, and keep games close. But in this particularly matchup with motivation to get off the mat, I like the Falcons volatility a bit more.

Easiest NFL Week 11 pick on the board

Texans (-7.5) at Cowboys

Yes, the Cowboys are starting Cooper Rush again; yes, the sun won't be a problem this week; yes, the defense got Micah Parsons back and still got torched by the Eagles. Somehow, none of this is why I'm looking at this matchup with the Texans and thinking that Houston is going to blow out Dallas inside Jerry Jones' curtainless monstrosity on Monday night.

Perhaps the biggest issue with America's Team that isn't getting the same publicity is the offensive line. Now you're asking that unit to protect a backup quarterback with no run game of consequence behind him from Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter? Dallas' offense might not even be close to functional in this game and, while the Texans offense has shown some warts, the Cowboys won't have enough to take advantage of any shortcoming from Houston in that department.