The NFL has become such an omnipresent part of our lives that it can be difficult to think about the game beyond what's right in front of our face. There's football on Thursday, Sunday and Monday, and endless coverage of it every day in between.
Between our various fantasy teams, survivor pools and DraftKings accounts, there's scarcely time to keep track of our own favorite teams, let alone think about any big picture ideas around the league. We all love football, but who has time for that?
I'm certainly guilty of not always seeing the forest for the trees when it comes to following the NFL, and so I'm trying to take a step back and use a wider scope every now and then. With that in mind, I thought it would pay to think about some big picture questions that this week's slate of games could answer. We have three weeks' worth of evidence to go on, but what could we find out from these games about how the rest of the season will play out?
Is this really the way the AFC South is going to go?
If there's one division that has not gone at all the way people expected, it's the AFC South. The Houston Texans were prohibitive favorites in the preseason, but they're now 0-3, with an offense that looks completely broken.
Perhaps more shocking still is that the Indianapolis Colts, led by unlikely hero Daniel Jones, are undefeated. The Colts have scored 103 points in three games behind Jones' mistake-free play and the explosive running of Jonathan Taylor, etching themselves into the history books for only punting a single time in the first three weeks.
Shane Steichen was on most preseason hot seat lists, but he looks like a genius for giving Jones the starting QB nod over the athletically gifted but erratic Anthony Richardson. Jones has been phenomenal, resurrecting his career while putting three games between his team and the preseason favorites.
Not everyone is sold on the Colts just yet, because two of their wins came against the Dolphins and Titans, while the other, over the Broncos, happened due to a controversial penalty call after Indy missed a potential game-winning field goal. Sunday's game at the Rams should reveal if the first three games were fool's gold, or if the Colts are here to stay.
The Texans, meanwhile, will host the Titans, which is about as reliable a slump-buster as there is. Tennessee is losing by over 14 points per game, and it's clear that top overall pick Cam Ward is going to have to take his lumps this year. For all of Houston's offensive woes, the defense has been as advertised. If they can't win this one easily, then we'll know this season is in trouble.
Lest anyone forget, the Jaguars are hanging around, too. The Jags beat the Texans in a divisional clash last week to move to 2-1, but now they'll travel to San Francisco to take on an undefeated Niners team that shoud have Brock Purdy back. Even if he can't go though, that's no guarantee of success for Jacksonville, because they've already lost to Bengals backup Jake Browning in Week 2. Mac Jones has done a great job in steering the ship in Purdy's absence, so either way, this should be a good one.
The Texans are too talented to be this bad for long, so the Colts and Jags need to keep stacking wins to keep the distance between them.
Sophomore quarterback stock watch
Nothing drives more NFL discussion than the sport's most difficult position: quarterback. And though guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are justifiably featured in those conversations, to me, it's more fascinating to discuss the young quarterbacks who are still trying to find their way in the league. Those former MVPs are what they are, the standard-bearers of the league. For the young guys, there's a much wider range of outcomes.
Last year's quarterback class is one of the most talked-about in recent memory, which makes sense considering six guys were taken in the top 12 picks. By the end of last year, there was a pretty clear picture of where each guy stood. Jayden Daniels was incredible in running away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He led the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game by doing the same thing that won him the Heisman at LSU: looking like a young Lamar Jackson that could burn a defense with his arm and legs.
Bo Nix, the sixth quarterback taken, was surprisingly second in the pecking order. He justified Sean Payton's faith in him by leading the Broncos to the playoffs while showcasing the accuracy and decision-making that made him so successful at Oregon.
It was a mixed bag of a year for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Williams was the top overall pick, and though he should be commended for surviving being sacked 68 times and limiting turnovers, his rookie year was marked by the Bears firing their coaching staff and at one point losing 10 straight games. Maye got his first start in Week 6, and like Williams, showed flashes of potential mixed with inconsistency. Coming into this year, he too had a new set of coaches teaching him.
JJ McCarthy missed all of last year with a torn meniscus, and it wasn't until late in the year that Michael Penix Jr. finally got his first start. Their rookie year report cards certainly have a grade of incomplete.
Heading into this season, all six of these now-sophomore quarterbacks were the unquestioned starter on their respective teams. Not all of them have taken the job and run with it, though.
McCarthy was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week to open the season, which was a bit odd since through three quarters he did next to nothing. A fourth-quarter comeback win over the Bears not only won him the award, it had the talking heads gushing as they praised what a gamer he was.
The sentiment surrounding McCarthy two weeks later is decidedly different. He laid an egg against the Falcons in Week 2, this time through all four quarters, in a close loss. Then he missed Week 3 with a sprained ankle, and the Vikings came out and annihilated the Bengals by 38 without him.
It's fair to wonder if the Vikings have remorse over giving the keys to McCarthy when they could have brought Sam Darnold back. Darnold was shaky in his first game with the Seahawks, but he's been superb since in leading them to three straight wins. McCarthy has looked so bad in seven of his eight quarters that people are actually asking the question of whether Carson Wentz should start in his place even once McCarthy's ankle is 100 percent.
Penix is in a similar boat after a dreadful performance against the Panthers last week. Carolina's defense shut the Falcons out in a 30-0 win, forcing two Penix interceptions while holding him to a 50 percent completion percentage. Things got so bad that the young lefty was pulled in the fourth quarter for Kirk Cousins.
Penix got a vote of confidence from Raheem Morris after the game, and he'll again start this week against the Commanders. We could have had a Class of 2024 battle between Penix and Daniels, but it was announced today that Daniels will miss his second straight week of action. Penix needs a better performance than he mustered against the Panthers, but at least he'll be at home for this one.
Daniels' stock watch is on hold as he awaits his return from a knee sprain, but the man taken before him in the draft, Caleb Williams, is beginning to show signs of fulfilling his promise. Williams deserves his share of the blame for that Week 1 loss to the Vikings that got away, but he's looked better in each start since. You wouldn't know it based on the lopsided score against the Lions in Week 2, but he played well in directing three touchdown drives. The Bears' defense couldn't stop a nosebleed, and the offensive line couldn't stop committing penalties, otherwise his efforts would have been more properly recognized.
Last week's game against the Cowboys was Williams' coming out party. He hit four different receivers for touchdowns while falling just short of 300 yards passing, earning his first NFC Offensive Player of the Week award in the process. Some people were already questioning the match between Williams and his new head coach Ben Johnson after training camp and one game, but they're much quieter now. If he can light up the Raiders too, the bandwagon could fill up in a hurry.
Lastly, there are Nix and Maye, both of whom have underwhelmed so far in leading their teams to 1-2 starts. Nix played well in a heartbreaking Week 2 loss to the Colts, but he kept the sorry Titans around in Week 1 with two picks and a lost fumble while averaging only 4.4 yards per attempt. He was also outclassed by Justin Herbert last week, though the Broncos' defense and running game gave them a chance to win.
Maye hasn't been able to shake the prevailing sentiment that he's talented but prone to making big mistakes. It wasn't all his fault that the Patriots lost to the Steelers last week (I'm looking at you Rhamondre Stevenson), but his interception in the end zone was just one of many killer New England mistakes.
Maye is taking a beating behind a bad offensive line, but he isn't helping himself by taking a lot of unnecessary hits when he runs the ball. This week could be his chance to shine, though, as the Panthers are coming to town. Carolina shocked the world by shutting out the Falcons last week, but that was just as much a product of Atlanta's ineptitude than a sign that the Panthers all of a sudden have a fearsome defense.
Maye was really good in a Week 2 win against the Dolphins, and the first step to proving he can be the guy in New England is to stack performances like that together, especially against lower-ranked teams like the Panthers.
Who is the favorite in the NFC?
The marquee game of the day is Ravens-Chiefs. That one is compelling because of the long, mostly one-sided history between those teams, but also because the loser will fall to 1-3. I'm more interested in what's happening in the NFC, however.
The Eagles are the defending champs, and they're 3-0 in the early part of their title defense. It should always be sunny, but all is not as well as it would seem. The offense has looked listless through three weeks, only snapping out of it once the it faced a big second-half deficit against the Rams last week.
Sunday's game will tell us what we need to know about whether the Eagles are taking this seriously or just coasting until they can flip the switch when they need to. The Bucs have absolutely owned the Eagles in recent years, winning their last two matchups by a combined score of 65-25. Tampa has been bitten hard by the injury bug, but Baker Mayfield has pulled them out of the fire with three straight game-winning drives.
This is our only matchup of 3-0 teams, and it will go a long way toward determining who should be the NFC favorite. It's not the only one that will, though. The Lions have looked fantastic the last two weeks after a slog of a loss to the Packers in Week 1, and I'm interested to see how they handle a Browns team that knocked Matt LaFleur's group from the ranks of the unbeaten with a walk-off field goal last week. At home, with an offense that has scored 90 points the last two weeks, the Lions should roll.
The Packers were the bandwagon team of the first two weeks. They pulled off a blockbuster deal for Micah Parsons, beat the defending NFC North champion Lions handily, then did the same to the Commanders. All those good vibes came crashing down with last week's shocking upset loss in Cleveland, but the Cheeseheads have a chance to juice up the hype train in Parsons' return to Dallas this week. Emotions will be running high, but on paper, Green Bay is the better team, especially now that they have one of the best edge rushers in the game and Dallas doesn't.
Caleb Williams torched the Cowboys last week, and if Jordan Love wants to be taken seriously, he needs to do the same. Anything less than an easy win for Green Bay could make those first two weeks feel like a mirage.