The Miami Dolphins were the NFL's definition of mediocrity last season. They went 8-9 in the regular season which is as close as you can get to a .500 record in a 17-game slate. Most fans will point to Tua Tagovailo's injury as the root of the team's problems but the issues for head coach Mike McDaniel go deeper than the quarterback position.
Consider the reality that Miami only went 6-5 in Tagovailoa's 11 starts. It is not as if the Dolphins were lighting the world on fire with their starting quarterback in the lineup. On the season, the offense only managed to score a shade over 20 points per game. That was only good for 22nd in the NFL and must improve in 2025 if this team is going to make any noise in a very competitive division.
The defense, in sharp contrast, was 10th in the league in terms of points allowed and might have even more talent to work with. First-round pick Kenneth Grant should give the team's front another player who can help stuff the run and rush the passer. The big trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick should give much-needed leadership to a new group of starting defensive backs.
The formula for success for the Dolphins in 2025 is clear. The defense has to remain a top-10 unit and the offense needs to join them. If that happens, Miami could be a dark horse Super Bowl team. The outcome of the following three bold predictions could go a long way towards determining the team's fate.
1. Tua Tagovailoa will play in at least 14 games
Tagovailoa does not have the physical profile of a player who can take big hits and stay on the field. He's been guilty of taking unnecessary risks at various points in his career. Part of this prediction prices in the idea that reality has dawned on the former first-round signal caller.
The rest of this prediction hinges on the two new offensive guards that Miami acquired in the offseason. James Daniels is not a star, but if he stays healthy he should give the team's interior a major boost. Team officials are hopeful that second round pick Jonah Saviinea can also serve as an uprade at left guard.
Daniels, in particular, should be able to provide the offense more balance in the run game. De'Von Achane is not a bruiser in the interior but he can turn inside seams into explosive plays. Daniels' physicality should also help the Dolphins offense improve their third down efficiency.
A little more maturity plus a more balanced attack should keep Tagovailoa healthy more often. He's not going to be healthy for a full 17-game schedule but playing in 14 games would be a win for the Dolphins.
2. The team's most productive tight end is not on the current roster
The team's decision to lure Darren Waller out of retirement reeks of desperation. It would be a great story if he found a way to be a competent starter in 2025 but the odds are stacked against that sort of Hollywood story emerging in south Florida.
In fairness to Waller, it's no as if the options behind him on the team's depth chart inspire any confidence. The likes of Julian Hill and Pharoah Cooper are not exactly lining themselves up for Pro Bowl bids anytime soon.
That cold reality will force the Dolphins to scour the waiver wire for a new tight end as teams make their final preseason cuts. Waller might find a way to contribute but he won't be the No. 1 option for very long. An upgrade will be secured in the coming weeks.
3. Tyreek Hill won't get a trade and will go over 1,200 yards receiving
Tyreek Hill is going to cause drama for the Dolphins at various points this season. That will not stop him from being the team's No. 1 receiver as he plays his age-30 season.
The former Chiefs star has lost a step but that still leaves him with more than enough speed to trouble opposing defensive backs. Tagovailoa still throws a great deep ball when he receivers proper protection. That's why it's easy to see Hill having a bounceback campaign.
None of this should change the probability that 2025 is Hill's last season in a Dolphins uniform. It just means he'll be leaving Miami on a bit of a high note. Lock him in for 1,200 yards on just under 100 catches on the season.