The Minnesota Vikings were one of the most surprising teams in the NFL last year en route to a 14-3 regular season record. That did not the team's front office from making a big change at quarterback heading into 2025. J.J. McCarthy will enter the campaign as the team's starter after missing his rookie campaign due to injury. The transition from Sam Darnold to McCarthy will do more to tell the tale of the Vikings season than anything else.
Of course, the move to install McCarthy as the team's starter isn't the only business Minnesota conducted in the offseason. On offense, they worked hard to reconstruct the interior of the line charged with protecting their young quarterback. Ryan Kelly and Will Fries were two of the team's biggest free agent acquisitions. Spending a first-round pick on guard Landon Jackson was aimed to give McCarthy clean interior pockets to work with.
The changes for the Vikings' defense were not as stark. The team deserves credit for finding a way to keep Byron Murphy in the fold after he hit the open market. Landing former premium draft pick Jeff Okudah could turn into one of the smartest moves of the offseason. Minnesota's defense might not give up the fifth fewest points in the NFL again, but another top-10 finish should be in the cards.
Vikings fans might not want to hear that 2025 looks like a season of transition for their favorite team. The outcome of the following three bold predictions should portend whether or not the Vikings can compete for an NFC North title this year.
1. J.J. McCarthy will throw fewer interceptions than Sam Darnold did
Darnold put up big numbers for Minnesota's offense in 2024 but he did throw the ball to the opposition on 12 occasions. That was not a troubling number given how often he was asked to throw the ball but it's something the coaching staff needs to cut down on with McCarthy at the helm.
Expect the Vikings to try to ease McCarthy into the cauldron of pro football by leaning more on the ground game than they did last season. Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason and Ty Chandler should all see plenty of carries while their new quarterback finds his feet.
The team's passing attack will also become more conservative without an experienced signal-caller. McCarthy will take some shots down the seam but don't look for him to take risks on the outside. That should naturally allow him to cut down on some of the risky throws that cost Darnold turnovers a year ago.
The problem with this prediction is that it cuts both ways. McCarthy won' throw 12 interceptions but he also isn't going to get anywhere near the 35 touchdown passes that Darnold put up. Overall he's going to be a significant downgrade in his first reason season.
2. Aaron Jones will not lead the team in rushing attempts
Jones absorbed 255 carries for Minnesota in his age-29 season. That helped his team win 14 regular-season games but it also wore the veteran back down before the postseason arrived.
Part of this prediction is based on the coaching staff trying to better manage Jones' workload. The aforementioned duo of Mason and Chandler should be able to chop a healthy chunk of Joones' carries away from him during the regular season.
The darker side of this prediction is that Jones is hitting an age where a lot of NFL running backs start to experience a great deal of age-related regression. A drop in efficiency could also lead to his offensive coaching staff looking to diversify their ground attack.
3. Dallas Turner will put up at least eight sacks
The Vikings gave up a king's ransom to position themselves to take Dallas Turner in last year's draft. It's safe to assume they were hoping for more than three sacks in the edge rusher's rookie season.
Instead, it was veteran Andrew Van Ginkel who provided his defense with real venom from the outside. This year it's time for Turner to start to pay off as a productive outside linebacker. He has all the physical tools required to succeed at the pro level and it's reasonable to think he should experience a big jump in productivity in his second season.
The end result will see Turner join Van Ginkel as a guy who can potentially notch double-digit sacks when things break right for him. His development can help the Vikings' defense make up for their likely drop in offensive production. If he turns into a legitimate star it could change the ceiling for his team in 2025.