The Week 4 fireworks are over, the dust has settled on upsets and a Sunday Night duel for the ages, and a new week of NFL dawns. Injuries are starting to take their toll, divisions are slowly shaping into a blurry playoff picture, and contenders are jostling into place as the weather begins to turn.
These are three overreactions and hot takes to Week 4 of the NFL season...that ring a little close to home.
1. The Ravens are cooked
Let's start here: injured as they are, the Baltimore Ravens defense should not have let Kansas City put up 37 points on them. Through four weeks, the Ravens have let through the most points per game in the entire league, and over 400 yards per game. It is getting to the point where the Bills' and Lions' wins over them look less superhuman than anything. But it gets worse. Their defense, already at the bottom of the league, is now down a whopping seven starters for the near future, including stars Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey, and Kyle Van Noy.
And if you were hoping Baltimore's offense could pick up the slack, think again, because Lamar Jackson also left Week 4 with a hamstring injury. Even if he doesn't miss time, that injury could affect Jackson's mobility, his biggest tool, in a massive way going forward. And it already has: Jackson has finally fallen to the butter finger curse that was placed on Derrick Henry, posting a fumble and interception after not turning the ball over at all after three weeks. Henry, meanwhile, rushed for only 42 yards in total.
At 1-3, conventional wisdom says that the Ravens can turn things around -- they won the AFC North last year after starting 0-2, after all. You could even explain away their losses to the Bills and Lions, two true Super Bowl contenders, and the Chiefs, who Lamar Jackson is only 1-6 in his career against. But that defense has dates with the Rams, Packers, Vikings, and Patriots (yes, the top 12 scoring offense of the Patriots) coming up, a Browns team that is probably salivating at the thought of their newly-vulnerable offense (Detroit sacked Lamar seven times in Week 3), and the division-leading Steelers led by a surprisingly decent Aaron Rodgers. I don't think it's too early to call it:
The Ravens are not contenders this season, and will miss the playoffs.
2. The Chiefs will win the AFC West...again
And on the other end, to quote the second-greatest meth cook in fictional history: "He can't keep getting away with this!"
If it's not an otherworldly offense, it's their defense. If it's not their defense, it's situational football *cough*the refs*cough*. And if it's not situational football, or luck, it's simple attrition and the concept of the last man standing. Despite what the Ravens have shown, the Kansas City Chiefs have proven time and again that all they need is a single poke to be woken up. And Patrick Mahomes has indeed been woken up, throwing for 270 yards and 4 TDs, all to different receivers, and none of which were Travis Kelce nor his most-targeted of the day Xavier Worthy (5/8). Between him and their defense, the Chiefs can more than survive until Rashee Rice's return.
And Week 4 wasn't about them. Week 4 was about the Chargers not just Charger-ing, but also losing both of their starting tackles in a stunning upset loss to the Giants. Meanwhile, the Broncos have not delivered on the promise they showed in the back half of 2024, and the Raiders are...the Raiders.
The Chiefs will survive to the post-season once more.
3. The Eagles will not make it back to the Super Bowl
No, I do not believe that the Philadelphia Eagles are a bad team, nor do I think that they are suffering a Super Bowl hangover, at least not in the traditional sense. I do think, however, that their version of rope-a-dope could come back to bite them because of how stupid good the NFC West is.
The gauntlet of the NFL has now shifted. The Cowboys have proven that Green Bay can get caught in a shootout against the right matchup, leaving every NFC division largely decided on a champion. But there are three 3-1 teams in the West, and while the 49ers are flirting with disaster with their injuries (take notes, Baltimore), Robert Saleh's scheming on one and and Christian McCaffrey's brilliance on the other makes them a threat until the defense or McCaffrey's line of skill position blood sacrifices are simply depleted. In LA, Matt Stafford has a triple-crown candidate in Puka Nacua leading a duo of himself and Davante Adams, and LA's defense is posting top 10 numbers through four weeks. And finally, Sam Darnold looks like the real deal after his time in Minnesota resuscitated his career, and Seattle's defense has quietly allowed the second-least points per game in the entire NFL.
Philadelphia's game of tush pushing and grinding out time of possession with a lead is working so far, and when they've needed to open things up in the air, they've proven very capable of such. But Saquon Barkley has disappointed through four weeks, and once the playoffs start, that on-switch will be way harder to flip. If Philadelphia doesn't take the season seriously, barring injury, they could find themselves sucker punched by anyone -- and in that case, the NFC West will cruise to a Super Bowl appearance.