3 reasons the Kyler Murray era will be better than the Sam Darnold era

If you’re waiting for a long-term quarterback in Minnesota, you’re going to be waiting for a while. It’s looking a whole lot like the Vikings are just going to cycle through guys, rehab them, and ship them off to somewhere else. The next man up is Kyler Murray.

In 2026, that’s not a name that’s going to get your blood pumping… But didn’t you feel the same way about Sam Darnold in 2024? They’re not so different in that way, those two guys.

If you squint, tilt your head, and huff Freon, you’ll see a world where Kevin O’Connell can get the Murray-Vikings to a better spot than the Darnold-Vikings. 

Kyler Murray isn’t bad

Let’s set the base level for what we’re looking at here: Kyler Murray doesn’t stink. He’s not good, but he doesn’t stink. On the other hand, when Sam Darnold went to the Vikings? Buddy, he stunk. 

Darnold came in after those two bad years in Carolina, and then his pseudo-rehab year in San Francisco, where he started just one game in Week 18. Plain and simple, he was bad. 

Murray, on the other hand, has been perfectly fine as a whole. He hasn’t been terrible, and he hasn’t been good; he’s right smack dab in the middle. He’s not a terrible passer, but he’s serviceable. He’s not a powerhouse of a runner, but he’s shifty, quick, and explosive.

It’s been a minute since we’ve seen it, but Murray has played at a high level in the past. From 2019 to 2021, he was pretty solid in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense… but as things go with Kingsbury, it petered out spectacularly at the end. 

Kyler Murray has real mobility

The Vikings have been really bad at running the ball under Kevin O’Connell. Take a look at some of the rushing stats over the past four seasons and where they rank in the league:
(RY = Rush Yards, EPA/R = Expected Points Added per Rush)

It’s not a shocker that the best season that they had, efficiency-wise, was last season with J.J. McCarthy. He couldn’t throw the ball worth a hoot, but he was pretty juicy when he tucked it and ran. That was something the Vikings haven't had in a hot minute.

Now, it’s no secret that O’Connell would rather air the ball out rather than have a gutting running game; that’s kind of his whole thing. BUT you have to imagine that he’d like to be able to run the ball with some kind of efficiency, and he just has not been able to do that with any kind of consistency.

One way to do that is by having a quarterback who is a plus-one in the running game. That’s to say, a quarterback who is a real running threat. Think Kirk Cousins: he’s a statue, so the defense only has to worry about 10 players on the field. Think Lamar Jackson: he’s the epitome of mobile, and defenses have to worry about all 11 people on the field. 

In theory, that plus-one in the running game loosens up defenses, makes them a teensy bit more hesitant, and opens up the run game. Thus, more efficiency on the ground. 

Kyler Murray can be that plus-one in Minnesota, which would give that offense a new gear on the ground and allow them to control the clock in a way O’Connell has never had before.

He just generates completion

Let’s say O’Connell doesn’t care about what Murray can add to the running game. Let’s say that he’s just going to stick to his guns and air the ball out no matter what and get the ball to Justin Jefferson and the rest of the pass catchers. If that’s the case, Kyler Murray will deliver the ball.

Again, for reference, the O’Connell Vikings have been above league average in completion percentage. Since he took over in 2022, his quarterbacks have had a completion percentage of 65.7 percent, which is 1.12 percentage points higher than the NFL’s average over that time. 

Going into this season, Murray has a career completion percentage of 67.1 percent. Going into his year with the Vikings, Darnold had a career completion percentage of 59.75 percent.

Even if you consider that Darnold was set up for failure during his time with the Jets and the Panthers, that difference of 7.35 percentage points is remarkable. If you put that into the context of the 2025 season, that’s roughly the difference between Dak Prescott (67.3 percent) and Cam Ward (58.1 percent). 

If you’re going to be a team that not only prefers, but demands, that the ball gets moved primarily with a lethal passing game, getting a guy who has proven that he’ll get the ball to his receivers is a must.

He protects the ball

There isn’t a perfect way to see how good a quarterback is at protecting the ball, but the way I do it is by looking at interception-to-dropback ratios. Based on that, Kyler Murray is really good at protecting the ball.

For reference, Caleb Williams is the best with interceptions on 0.99 percent of his dropbacks. Behind him is Cam Ward with 1.13 percent. Kyler Murray, over the past four seasons, is ranked 18th with a 1.68 percent ratio.

That’s a lot better than what the Vikings have been dealing with. In 2025, J.J. McCarthy was throwing interceptions at a 4.17 percent rate (which is crazy, even if it’s a small sample size). And in 2024, Sam Darnold had a 1.93 percent rate.

That’s still pretty good, but if you can get a guy who is historically better at avoiding turnovers, you’ll take that. For what it’s worth: Darnold has 18 career multi-interception games, and Murray has 14. 

It’s important not to let the bad stuff compound on itself … which, in a nutshell, has kind of been the story of the Vikings as a franchise for the better part of this millennium.

The bottom line of this whole thing is that Kyler Murray has more tools in his body and has a significantly higher upside as a quarterback than Sam Darnold. Now it’s up to Kevin O’Connell to show his bum season with J.J. McCarthy was a fluke and that he truly can get the best out of his signal caller …

... You know, or else 2026 is going to be just another year where Vikings fans watch their hopes and dreams disappear in a late-season collapse. No pressure, Kev. 

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