ESPN came out today with its ranking of every roster in the NFL. It's a comprehensive list from some of the Worldwide Leader's top football minds, and by and large, it's a great read and an excellent way to get back into "football mode" with training camp upon us.
The Chicago Bears settled in at No. 15 on that list, and while I don't think it's completely unfair, especially given that the Bears went 5-12 last year to essentially finish 23rd in the league, I do believe that the Monsters of the Midway deserve to be higher than the middle of the pack. At the very least, I believe they'll be better than the 15th-best team in the league this year when everything is taken into account.
There's been a lot of change in Chicago this offseason, and I believe that's why the Bears were ranked in no man's land. Very few people want to look foolish on an unproven commodity — If that weren't the case, we'd all be Bitcoin billionaires by now. The Bears have a new coaching staff and a lot of youth in key positions, so the safe bet is to put them in the middle. This doesn't give much fuel to the haters that expect the worst, nor should it really rankle the optimists who view the world through navy-and-orange-tinted glasses.
I'm one of those optimists, and no, I'm not rankled. I don't mind going out on a limb though, and so I present my three reasons why the Bears will be better than this ranking suggests.
3. Ben Johnson is a huge upgrade over Matt Eberflus
Matt Eberflus was not a good head coach, and it's not because he didn't have players. His career 14-32 record is proof of that, especially given the way Ryan Poles has been able to upgrade the roster throughout the time the two shared together.
Eberflus was conservative as a tactician on both sides of the ball. That's no way to let your players shine. His in-game decision-making was historically bad, costing the Bears games left and right last year. I'd go down the list but I can't imagine any self-respecting Bears fan wants to relive the week-in, week-out torture of tasting defeat when victory was so close at hand.
I believe that Ben Johnson will be a phenomenal coach. I really do. He's already shown an emphasis on personal accountability from everyone in the organization in a way in which the toothless Eberflus never did. Beyond that, we have ample proof that he's one of the more brilliant offensive minds in the league. The Bears are not going to be throwing the same screen pass three times in a row or running many halfback dives on 2nd and 10.
ESPN was tasked with measuring the rosters of each team, and so the coaches aren't taken into account. I would argue that they should be, because good coaches make players better, and bad coaches make them worse. ESPN is judging someone like DJ Moore, for instance, on what he did last year while on board an obviously sinking ship. We know what Moore can do, and with an offensive maestro designing and calling the plays, I have no doubt that we'll see a much better version of him this year.
Even if you aren't willing to take the leap with me in saying that Johnson will be a phenomenal coach, I think we can all agree that there isn't a plausible scenario in which he's worse than Eberflus. At worst, he'll still be a modest upgrade, with the potential for much more.
ESPN doesn't want to make that leap just yet, and I can hardly blame them. If there's one thing the Bears have been good at in recent years, it's shin-kicking anyone who has been foolish enough to believe in them. This kind of feels like betting on black because the roulette wheel has come up red five times in a row, but I'd rather be too early than too late on it. The arrow is finally pointing up.
2. Caleb Williams is going to take the league by storm this year
This one goes hand-in-hand with what I wrote about Johnson, but it deserves its own section. Caleb Williams was drafted No. 1 overall just over a year ago after one of the most prolific college careers we've seen. He won the Heisman Trophy and was touted by many as a generational prospect. What changed, exactly?
Williams has gotten ragged on for his rookie year performance, but I think the hate is coming from the same kinds of people who took issue with him painting his nails. For anybody who actually watched the games, it was clear that he's a special player.
Williams played behind a bad offensive line all last year, and he was complemented by a mediocre running game. The Bears had one of the worst run defenses in the league, yet still he engineered multiple fourth-quarter comebacks to put the team in position to win. Nearly every time, that opportunity was stolen by bad defense and worse coaching.
Everyone remembers Jayden Daniels' Hail Mary to beat the Bears in Week 8, a result that lies at the feet of Eberflus and Tyrique Stevenson. Few remember that Williams drove the Bears down the field to steal a late lead with what should have been a game-winning drive before that fateful play.
Not every one of the 68 sacks that Williams took last year can be blamed on the offensive line, and he's even admitted that to the press. Too often he held the ball in the hopes of hitting a home run, when a single would have been a perfectly fine outcome. That's something that rookies do, especially when they're playing under three different offensive coordinators in a 17-game stretch. Now in Year 2 with a confident and aggressive play-caller, Williams will no longer have to go out of his way to hunt for explosive plays. They'll be diagrammed for him.
Despite all the sacks, Williams still showed an ability to use his legs, whether by scrambling away from pressure and finding a man downfield or by getting loose and running. He rushed for 489 yards, the seventh-highest total among all quarterbacks last year. More importantly, he threw for over 3,500 yards, a Bears rookie record and the fifth-highest single-season total in franchise history. He also displayed an ability to protect the ball that went well beyond his years, as he threw only six interceptions despite starting every game.
I get not wanting to place a second-year quarterback not named Jayden Daniels in the upper echelon of NFL signal-callers, but Caleb is going to kill it this year and prove why he was the No.1 pick. The offensive line in front of him is light years better, and he's surrounded by young skill position talent. I'm especially excited to see how he and Rome Odunze are able to further develop their connection now that Rome is the undisputed No. 2 receiver on the roster behind Moore.
Think about attending a dinner party at someone's house where the roof was leaking during a violent rainstorm. You're not going to remember if the food was any good, right? Williams cooked up some good stuff last year, but there was too much mess around him to notice. That won't happen again.
1. The defense has added enough pieces to hold its own this year
I'm not expecting the Bears to be close to any of the vintage defenses we've seen over the years, but unlike last year, I don't think they'll be a bunch of traffic cones out there.
I mentioned above how the Bears were putrid against the run last year, but they've taken measures to fix that by signing Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo and drafting Shemar Turner in the second round. I'm excited to see what Turner can become, and I'm hopeful that Odeyingbo can unlock his potential. The move I'm most excited about, though, is the Jarrett signing.
Jarrett is a pro's pro that I can't imagine will be okay with anchoring a bottom-five defense. He's a vet that will hold the young guys accountable, and he still has enough left in the tank to be a dependable player on the field. Next to Gervon Dexter, who has quietly established himself as one of the better young D-tackles in the league, he'll give the Bears a much higher floor in the trenches than they had last year.
The Bears also have a dynamite secondary. Jaylon Johnson is still criminally underappreciated as a shutdown corner (ESPN ranked him eighth among all cornerbacks last week, a real slap in the face to someone who has made two straight Pro Bowls). Kyler Gordon might be the best and most dynamic nickelback in the league. When healthy, which he seems to be heading into the season, Jaquan Brisker is an outstanding safety who was having a career year before a concussion knocked him out last season. Tyrique Stevenson is bound to bounce back, and even if he doesn't, Terell Smith is really, really good.
Dennis Allen will run a much more aggressive defensive scheme than Eberflus did. No longer will the Bears sit back and allow teams to slowly march down the field on them.
It comes down to simple math for me when looking at these roster rankings. I have the Bears fielding a middle-of-the-pack defense and a top-10 offense. Cairo Santos is an average kicker when balancing out his accuracy with his lack of a big leg, while Tory Taylor should be a top-10 punter in his second year.
Put all three position groups together, and the Bears should be in the 11-13 range with the potential to go even higher if the young guys really pop. Come at me, ESPN. We'll see who's right.