Week 5 is set to begin tonight with an NFC West showdown between the 49ers and Rams. NFL fans are just hoping to see a competitive game, a possibility that has gotten more remote as the Niners have ruled so many players out with injuries.
Whether or not Thursday Night Football turns out to be a dud, this weekend's games are looking spicy, with matchups between contenders, wannabe contenders and teams just hoping to avoid rock bottom. Better yet, these games are looking very unpredictable, so thoughts and prayers to everyone out there who's still alive in their survivor pools.
As readers of this weekly column know, we don't just welcome unpredictability, we celebrate it. If there's anything the NFL has taught us over the years, it's that you can be someone who breaks down tape for 80 hours a week or somebody who parachutes in every Sunday with a plate of buffalo wings and a six-pack, and you still have about the same odds of prognosticating what's going to happen on the field. Football is the best unscripted show on TV, but even by the NFL's chaotic standards, this week's slate is especially difficult to forecast. We're going to try anyway. Here are four bold predictions that might actually come true.
Breece Hall and Justin Fields combine for 200 yards on the ground as the Jets get their first win against the Cowboys
I predicted that the Jets would get their first win against the Dolphins last week, leading to the end of Mike McDaniel's time in South Beach, and that did not happen. Any self-respecting Jets fan could have told me not to put my faith in Gang Green, but you know what? I'm coming back for seconds. Call it foolish, call it hubris because I actually hit two out of four of my predictions (thank you Jaxson Dart and Ashton Jeanty), but here we go.
The Cowboys have the worst defense in football. They're giving up over 297 yards per game through the air, over 30 yards more than the next closest team. Their run defense is ranked 21st, and they'd certainly give up more on the ground if opposing teams didn't know they could throw at will. Cowboys fans are feeling the same feelings about Matt Eberflus that Bears fans went through the last few years.
The Jets may still be winless, but I think they finally understand that they have to get the ball in Garrett Wilson's hands. Dallas has nobody to stop him 1-on-1, so expect double- and triple-teams all game. Wilson will still get his, but what he'll really do is open up the run game for Breece Hall and Justin Fields. I'm expecting a monster day from each, with over 200 yards combined on the ground.
The Jets are going to grind the Cowboys to dust with long drive after long drive. Time of possession is going to be lopsided, and the Cowboys, who are still without Ceedee Lamb and are coming off a grueling and emotional 40-40 tie on Sunday Night Football against Micah Parsons and the Packers, just won't have enough to keep up. Aaron Glenn gets his first win as the Jets take it 30-20.
Cooper Rush helps the Ravens steady the ship by beating the Texans
Speaking of former Cowboys, Cooper Rush is in line to start for the 1-3 Ravens as Lamar Jackson nurses a hamstring injury. Baltimore hasn't come out and admitted that Jackson will be out yet, but the writing is on the wall.
Rush was 9-13 for 52 yards against the Chiefs last week after he subbed in for the two-time MVP, and he'll have to take on another tough defense when the Texans come to town. Houston is actually favored in this game due to Jackson's expected absence and their shutout win over the abysmal Titans last week, but I'm picking the Ravens to get a much-needed win.
Both team will be desperate to avoid dropping to 1-4, and if the game was in Houston, I might feel differently. Here though, I think Rush will manage the game by playing mistake-free football. The Ravens will employ a Derrick Henry-heavy gameplan, something which is never a bad idea, and as DeMeco Ryans stacks the box to stop the bruising back, Rush will find some openings to Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers down the field.
Rush proved when he was with the Cowboys that he can play competently, and there's not much to indicate that C.J. Stroud, at least behind his ineffective offensive line, is any better at this point in time. This one is going to be an ugly one in the 17-13 range, but Rush will do just enough to help the Ravens survive without their superstar QB.
Jayden Daniels returns with a bang as Chargers fans begin to panic
The Commanders-Chargers game has a lot in common with Texans-Ravens. This matchup will also be influenced by a dual-threat quarterback who's been dealing with an injury, only here, Jayden Daniels is a full go after missing the last two weeks.
Like the Texans, the Chargers have offensive line problems. The Giants harassed Justin Herbert all game on Sunday, because not only are the Chargers missing Rashawn Slater for the year after he ruptured his patellar tendon in August, not only were they without Mekhi Becton because of a concussion, they also lost last year's first-round pick Joe Alt to an ankle sprain.
Alt is expected to miss this week and possibly more time after that, which is really going to hurt Herbert's chances of repeating the MVP form he showed in the first three weeks. On the other side of the ball, there's no Khalil Mack to help chase down Daniels. Jaxson Dart didn't exactly light it up in the passing game last week, but he ran for 54 yards on 10 carries. Imagine what Daniels will be able to do with two weeks of rest?
The Chargers already have three wins within the division, but the Broncos and Chiefs have both looked much more formidable lately. If they lose this game to the Commanders then it may be time to worry.
The Patriots put a real scare into the Bills before falling just short
This is going to be the third primetime game the Bills have played in the first five weeks, and they've all come at home. That's a pretty cushy schedule for a first-place team, but though they've gotten wins in their previous two, it's not like they're blowing teams off the field.
Week 1 was the epic comeback win over the Ravens, an amazing game but one that doesn't look quite as impressive now that Baltimore has fallen to 1-3. In Week 3 the Bills beat the Dolphins by 10, but that game was tied halfway through the fourth quarter.
As long as the Bills have Josh Allen, they can beat anybody. I definitely wouldn't want to bet against them. But I think Allen is covering for what otherwise is a pretty flawed team, one that's not nearly as dominant as their undefeated record would suggest.
The Patriots are tough and looking better by the week. They annihilated the Panthers on Sunday after Carolina had put a 30-0 stomping on the Falcons a week earlier. Drake Maye has looked more and more comfortable, and the defense, which got Christian Gonzalez back last week, has been solid for most of the year. If not for a turnover-filled comedy of errors against the Steelers in Week 3, New England would be 3-1.
I really feel like this is going to be a game that comes down to the wire. The Patriots are allowing the second-fewest yards per game on the ground, so they should be able to hold James Cook in check. Stefon Diggs will be motivated to stick it to his old team (he caught six balls for 82 yards as his Texans beat the Bills last year), and Maye will acquit himself well for the second time in his young career at Highmark Stadium.
Last year Maye threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns in his one game against the Bills, but he turned it over twice. One was a pick in the end zone, the other was a fumble that Buffalo returned for a touchdown. Still, the Patriots were a much worse team then, and they only lost by three.
I wouldn't be shocked if New England found a way to pull off the upset, but at the very least, I think they'll give the Bills all they can handle. I foresee multiple lead changes in the fourth quarter, with Allen directing a game-winning drive in the final minute to escape and stay unbeaten.