It feels like this happens every year, but the NFL season is once again flying by. This weekend marks the halfway point of the 18-week regular season, meaning teams with an interest in making the playoffs had better start stacking wins together soon.
Many people around the country have begun to experience that autumn chill in the air, or as it's better known on the gridiron, football weather. We're not quite there yet, but we shouldn't be far off from seeing players' breath in the huddles and those giant heaters on the sidelines. This is when the men are separated from the boys, making it a perfect week for teams to make their moves to the top of the standings.
Viewers at home have a slightly fuller slate to enjoy this week compared to last. Only four teams are on bye compared to six a week ago, and at the very least, the action should be more competitive by default. Ten of the 13 games last week were decided by 14 points or more, and other than the Dolphins destroying the Falcons, it was a good time to be a favorite.
There are a few on-paper mismatches on the schedule this week, but there are also a lot of games that should be close. Here are four bold predictions that could actually happen.
Aidan Hutchinson celebrates his new extension with a three-sack day on JJ McCarthy
Aidan Hutchinson just signed a four-year, $180-million extension that includes $141 million of guaranteed money, a record for a non-quarterback. Sounds like something worth celebrating, and what better way than to spend a Sunday afternoon at home than terrorizing a divisional opponent?
JJ McCarthy started the first two games of the year for the Vikings, but he's been on the bench since Week 3 nursing an ankle sprain — or at least that's what the official word is. Fans are under the impression that McCarthy's uninspired play led to a soft benching, but the Vikings have no choice but to turn to him now that Carson Wentz has suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.
McCarthy couldn't pick a much worse spot to come back, because the Lions offense can score with the best of them. To keep up, he'll have to avoid Hutchinson, whose streak of five straight games with a sack and four straight with a forced fumble came to an end against the Bucs last week. He'll be hungry to get back on track, even if it means taking down McCarthy, his fellow Michigan man.
McCarthy has played one good quarter of football in two career regular-season games. It will take much more than that to hang around in this one. Expect Hutchinson to have a monster day, and the Lions to win big.
Jonathan Taylor strengthens his MVP campaign with another 150 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers
In reality, we know that a non-quarterback has virtually no chance of winning the MVP in the modern NFL, but Jonathan Taylor is making an extremely strong case anyway. He leads the league in carries, yards and touchdowns, and he's the best player on what has to be considered the best team in the league right now.
Taylor already has 1,056 yards from scrimmage, and he's set up to add to that in a big way against a Steelers defense that is mostly living off past reputation. Pittsburgh ranks 24th in the league in DVOA against the run, and only the Cowboys give up more first downs per game. Against a dynamic Colts offense that ranks first in the league in yards and second in first downs, that's a recipe for disaster.
The Steelers have given up 100-yard games this year to Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown. All due respect to those players, but they're not Jonathan Taylor. They've also given up at least 30 points four times in seven games. That will continue on Sunday with another huge day from Taylor in a Colts rout.
The Texans end Denver's five-game winning streak and get themselves into the Wild Card conversation
The Texans started the season with a whimper by getting off to an 0-3 start. Typically that all but eliminates a team from playoff contention, but they've worked their way back into the race with three wins in their last four games. With the exception of a loss on Monday Night Football to the Seahawks in Week 7, the offense has finally come alive, and last week CJ Stroud had his first 300-yard game in over a year.
Stroud is expected to have his top receiver back for this game, as Nico Collins is on track to clear concussion protocol after missing the win over the Niners. The Broncos have a phenomenal pass defense led by superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II, but last year's AP Defensive Player of the Year will miss this game and possibly more with a pectoral strain. That's a real double whammy for the Broncos, and it's going to make a huge difference.
The Texans also have an outstanding defense, and Bo Nix will find the sledding a lot tougher against them than he did against the league-worst Cowboys (or the non-fighting Matt Eberfluses, as they've become known). Nix has had the luxury of facing five of the bottom seven teams in defensive DVOA this year, and no team ranked better than 12th. The Texans are No. 1.
I'll admit that the possibility of Nik Bonitto tearing through a bad Texans offensive line is a scary thought, but the Texans are 2-1 at home with their only loss coming on a Baker Mayfield game-winning drive, and the Broncos are 1-2 on the road with their only win being a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback against the Eagles. This game shouldn't have many points, but the Texans should be able to pull through and set themselves up for a run in the second half of the season.
The Chiefs flip the regular-season script against the Bills
The Chiefs and the Bills have become the NFL's premier rivalry, for good reason. You've got Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen, Kansas City BBQ versus Buffalo wings and Travis Kelce's New Heights versus a fanbase that likes to jump through tables from great heights.
These two teams just can't avoid each other, and the outcome has largely been determined by when they meet. Since the Bills drafted Allen in 2018, they've beaten the Chiefs four out of five times in the regular season, but have endured heartbreak after heartbreak in the playoffs, losing all four meetings.
If the Bills want to break their longtime Super Bowl curse, they'll need to go through the Chiefs to do it. Maybe an unorthodox way of finally getting over the hump is to lose in the regular season to flip the script. I can't speak to what will happen if they face off in the playoffs again, but this week, it feels like the Chiefs are in a better spot.
It looks like the Buffalo defense is getting Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard and Maxwell Hairston back, but that won't cover for the loss of Ed Oliver, who is on IR after surgery to repair a torn bicep. Rashee Rice's return makes this Chiefs offense truly scary, but it's actually been a rejuvenated Travis Kelce who has been making big plays every week.
Through a quirk of the schedule, the Chiefs have only played two true road games, splitting them with the Giants and the Jaguars. The Blls have been weirdly unimpressive at home, losing to the Patriots and escaping late against the Ravens, Dolphins and Saints.
This is easily the game of the week, but I'm not convinced that the Bills are back simply because they destroyed an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team after a bye. The Chiefs overcame a rough start to return to their Super Bowl form, and they're the team that nobody wants to face right now.