We are officially a third of the way through the NFL season. My first instinct was to say that time has flown for the teams having all the fun, but a quick check of the standings shows that this season has been a grind for just about everyone. There are no undefeated teams left already, and only the Colts and Bucs have one loss without a tie.
Indy has been the surprise story of the year, but it took everything they had to beat Jacoby Brissett last week, so it's not as if they're really living the high life. Nor are the Bucs, who have survived a never-ending string of injuries and late fourth-quarter deficits thanks to the superhuman abilities of Baker Mayfield.
It's clear that there's no dominant team this year, which makes the league more unpredictable than ever. Remember the days when the Chiefs or the Patriots would just blow teams out every week? Now there's almost no such thing as an easy win. A team that looked great one week can completely fall apart the next, and vice versa.
Last week's bold predictions were a great success, if I do say so myself. Baker went hog wild again, the Bills face-planted for the second straight week in primetime, and the Bears got revenge on the Commanders for last season's Hail Mary. A perfect four out of four was in reach if the refs had gone out of their way just a little more to stick it to the Patriots in New Orleans, but in fairness, the zebras were the main reason that game was close, so I can't complain too much about missing my Saints upset pick.
Good times seldom last in the NFL, but let's hope they can continue for at least another week with these bold predictions.
Carson Wentz hands his old team a three-game losing streak
Is it too early to panic about the Eagles? If the answer is yes after losses to the Broncos and Giants, then that will certainly change when the Vikings and their old buddy Carson Wentz knock them down to 4-3.
Things are unraveling in Philly. Even when the defending champs were winning, nobody seemed like they were having all that much fun — not Saquon Barkley, who is well off last season's record pace, and certainly not anyone involved in what has become an anemic passing game. If the NFL was giving out senior superlatives like in the high school yearbook, then AJ Brown and Devonta Smith would be the co-winners of the "Most Likely to Fight Their Quarterback" award.
The Eagles haven't beaten a team by more than seven points yet this season, and now they're heading to Minnesota to face a well-coached team coming off a bye. That's not a recipe for a bounce-back game, even if Carson Wentz isn't exactly on the level of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford or Baker Mayfield, all of whom the Eagles beat to start the year. Wentz can make plays with his legs though, just as Bo Nix and Jaxson Dart did the last two weeks, and there has to be a part of him that wants to stick it to his old team after they cut him loose in favor of Jalen Hurts.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has had an extra week to dial up all kinds of exotic nonsense to throw at Hurts and Philly's bland, tired offense. The Eagles are on a mini bye of their own after last Thursday night's stinker at the Giants, but this feels like a situation that's going to get worse before it gets better.
This is a game where Saquon should get 25+ carries to take advantage of the Vikings' 24th-ranked run defense. The Eagles will lean on him, but I don't think it will be enough. Vikings in a close, ugly one.
People begin to wonder if the Colts are actually good
As mentioned above, the Colts have been the feel-good story of the year. Shane Steichen has gone from the hot seat to a Coach of the Year candidate, Daniel Jones has resurrected his career and Jonathan Taylor looks like the best back in the league.
I hate to rain on anybody's parade, but I don't see the Colts being able to keep this up. They survived by the skin of their teeth last week against an Arizona team that always seems to find a way to lose, and the other four wins they've stacked up aren't exactly against a murderer's row. They beat the Broncos on a horrendous leverage call that gave their kicker a mulligan after his game-winning field goal attempt missed, and their other three victims — the Dolphins, Titans and Raiders — are a combined 4-14.
This week presents a fascinating test, because I wouldn't say anybody is really high on the Chargers right now. The offensive line is decimated, and after a 3-0 start, a 1-2 record against the Giants, Commanders and Dolphins was less than ideal. Still, it feels like as long as L.A. has Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, they always have a chance. They stole a win from Miami last week, which again, is not impressive on its own, but it was the kind of game I think we'll see them play a lot in the coming weeks, a back-and-forth affair where the last team with the ball takes it. If Herbert has it in his hands, he's earned the benefit of the doubt by this point.
Taylor could have another big day against the Chargers' mediocre run D, but Kimani Vidal broke out last week to fill the void left in the Chargers' backfield when Omarion Hampton went on IR. He can run it, and he gives Herbert another option in the passing game, a vital one since he's unlikely to get much time behind that line. He'll help the Chargers keep pace.
I'll give the Colts credit if they can travel to the West Coast and win this one, but I think the Chargers pull it out in another high-scoring thriller.
CeeDee Lamb's return isn't enough to get the Cowboys back in the win column
The Cowboys have been a pretty easy team to sum up this year. In short — offense good, defense bad. Dak Prescott would be getting MVP consideration if Matt Eberflus' defense was halfway functional, but without Micah Parsons (who admittedly hasn't been tearing it up yet in Green Bay), the Cowboys haven't been able to stop anybody.
CeeDee Lamb is back this week after an ankle sprain caused him to miss multiple games. His return will be a welcome one, but the offense has scored 104 points the last three weeks without him. How much higher can they go?
The Commanders played a sloppy game Monday night against the Bears, a shocking development since they've taken such good care of the ball since Jayden Daniels arrived last year. Dallas' only hope to stop them is turnovers, but the Cowboys have only forced four in six games and will be without Trevon Diggs. The Commanders will have it drilled into their heads by Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury all week that they need to hang onto the football, and since they'll be playing in the domed confines of AT&T Stadium and not in the wet conditions they faced on Monday night, they'll have a much easier time of it.
Washington is on short rest, and they'll again be without Terry McLaurin, which is probably why the Cowboys are slight favorites. The Commanders are only 3-3, but in each of their previous two losses, they've bounced back with a 17-point win. I don't think they'll blow the Cowboys out quite that badly, but I think they'll win by two scores as they get back on track and re-establish themselves as postseason contenders.
The Lions bounce back with a vengeance after their convincing loss to the Chiefs
All that talk of the Lions being NFC favorites came to a quicker stop last week than Andy Reid slamming on the brakes when he sees a new barbeque joint. We can talk about the way Patrick Mahomes looked like his old explosive self or the uncharacteristic key drop by Amon-Ra St. Brown, but when it comes down to it, the Chiefs just busted the Lions up in a statement win.
Frustration boiled over for Lions safety Brian Branch after the game, as he instigated a brawl with Chiefs receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Branch appealed his one-game suspension but lost, meaning he'll be out of action against Baker Mayfield, who is averaging over 256 yards per game through the air and two passing touchdowns despite being without two or three of his top targets every game.
Baker isn't a guy you want to face shorthanded, but I believe in Dan Campbell's ability to rally the troops. The Lions interrupted their normal diet of kneecaps to force down a rare helping of humble pie in Kansas City, and you can bet that Campbell is holding nothing back in practice this week to remind them of all they did wrong.
The Bucs have been playing with fire all year, but thanks to Baker, they've almost always found a way to come out as unburnt as Daenerys Targaryen. Their only loss was against the Eagles, and even in that one, they fought back from a 24-3 deficit to give the defending champs a late scare. That kind of heart attack style is unsustainable, and there aren't many tougher situations I can think of than having to go into Detroit on Monday night, let alone without Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin in uniform. Baker is a magician, but even he doesn't have enough tricks to keep this one close by himself. If this one ends up 35-17 Lions, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.