Each offseason, the NFL MVP discussion starts with the familiar names— Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson. In reality, MVP races often take surprising turns. Whether it’s Josh Allen winning in 2024, or Lamar Jackson’s electric season in 2019, under-the-radar stars have a habit of stealing the spotlight.
In 2025, four players — Justin Herbert, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Baker Mayfield enter the MVP conversation with momentum and storylines strong enough to break through the traditional quarterback ceiling. After standout 2024 seasons, these players are poised for even greater heights in the year ahead.
4. QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
2024 stats: 3,870 passing yards (9th), 23 TDs (12th), 3 INTs, 64.8 QBR (11th)
Justin Herbert has been one of the league’s most talented quarterbacks since entering the NFL, but team success has often eluded him. In 2024, the Chargers finished 11-6 and made the playoffs under first year head coach Jim Harbaugh. Their season ended however with a Wild Card loss to the Houston Texans, but 2025 brings a renewed hope.
The Chargers are now expected to mirror Harbaugh’s old school 49ers blueprint: tough run game, efficient passing game, and situational mastery. Herbert’s poise and arm strength match perfectly with this approach. The Chargers have rising second year wideout Ladd McConkey and also sighed Najee Harris in free agency. The Chargers also drafted Omari Hampton from North Carolina in the first round and then drafted wide receiver Tre Harris from Ole Miss to add to their arsenal.
If the Chargers' upgraded run game takes pressure off Herbert and the defense steps up. 12+ wins is realistic. Pair that with 4,500 yards, 30+ TDs, and another season of low turnovers, and Herbert will be impossible to ignore in MVP voting.
3. WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
2024 Stats: 127 catches (1st), 1,708 (1st), 17 TDs (1st)
Ja’Marr Chase was undeniably the best wide receiver in football last season. He captured the elusive receiving triple crown— leading the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns— and routinely torched defenses even when doubled or schemed against.
Some fans may forget that Joe Burrow was healthy the entire 2024 season, but Cincinnati’s issues came on the other side of the ball. The defense was one of the worst in football last season and struggled to close out tight games. As a result, the Bengals underachieved with a 9-8 record and missed the playoffs.
Still, Chase was unstoppable. His combination of route precision, explosive YAC (yards after catch), and elite body control makes him a quarterback dream. And with Chase signing a new contract along with Higgins and Burrow being more focused, the Bengals offense is poised to regain elite status.
If Chase repeats as the league leader in receiving categories and the Bengals finish 10-7 or better, he’ll be more than just an MVP dark horse— he’ll be a favorite, especially as voters look beyond quarterbacks.
2. WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
2024 Stats: 103 catches (6th), 1,533 yards (2nd), 10 TDs (T-6th)
Justin Jefferson’s 2024 season was the definition of excellence under pressure. Coming back from an injury riddled 2023 season, Jefferson was back to his normal self and dominating defenses week in and week out with his explosiveness and outstanding skill set.
His connection with former Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold all throughout 2024 was electric. Jefferson averaged 14.9 yards per reception and had 4 games over 120 receiving yards, In the Viking Wild Card loss to the Rams however, he only posted 5 receptions for 58 receiving yards.
Kevin O’Connell’s offense is built to funnel volume to Jefferson, and with a full season of J.J McCarthy who is expected to take the reins after missing all of 2024 with a knee injury and the Vikings offense are very excited from what they have seen from McCarthy, 2,000 receiving yards isn’t out of the question for Jefferson especially if the connection with McCarthy is on point.
If Jefferson leads the league in receiving and pushes the Vikings to a 10+ win season, he’ll be one of the rare wideouts with a real shot at MVP— a feat not seen since Jerry Rice in his prime
1. Baker Mayfield — QB, Tampa Bay Buccaners
2024 Stats: 4,500 yards(3rd) , 41 TDs(T-2nd), 16 INTs, 71.4% completion
Perhaps the msot surprising candidate of all, Baker Mayfield has continued his resurgence in his NFL career. His numbers weren’t just solid, they were elite. He threw for 4,500 yards which was third in the NFL and then had 41 touchdowns which was 2nd of all quarterbacks and finished top five in passer rating. The Bucs won the NFC South and earned a playoff berth, though they fell to the Commanders in the Wild Card round.
Mayfield’s chemistry with Mike Evan’s and Chris Godwin gave Tampa one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the league. The Buccaneers also drafted Ohio State standout receiver Emeka Egbuka in the first round to add another weapon for Baker and this offense. He delivered in big moments, including game-winning drives and crucial late-season victories that clinched the division.
What makes Mayfield’s candidacy so intriguing is the narrative. He’s been doubted since leaving Cleveland, was on two different teams in 2022, and then finally found a home in Tampa. If he delivers another 4,000+, 35+ TD season while leading the Bucs to an 11+ win campaign, voters will not just the stats, but the redemption arc.
What each dark horse MVP candidate needs in 2025
- Justin Herbert: Improve win total to 11+ while keeping INTs low and TDs high
- Ja'Marr Chase: Repeat as league’s top WR and help Bengals return to contention
- Justin Jefferson: Lead the league in yards/TDs, and push Minnesota to a top NFC Seed
- Baker Mayfield: Maintain elite efficiency, limit turnovers, pass for another 4,500 yards and 35+ TDs, and lead the Bucs to an 11+ win season.
In a league obsessed with quarterbacks, two receivers— both from LSU Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson— are proving they can command MVP level impact. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield are poised to rewrite narratives around winning and resilience.
While Mahomes, Allen and Jackson will always be in the hunt, don’t be surprised if the 2025 MVP trophy ends up in the hands of one of these four dark horses. They’re already producing at elite levels— and now, the storylines, systems, and expectations are lining up.
The spotlight is theirs to seize.