Take a snapshot at any point during any NFL season, and you'll see the entire gamut of emotions encapsulated within the league's 32 fan bases. From "We're so back" to "It's so over," the NFL is a zero-sum game that necessitates that there are winners and losers.
In late July, that's not the case. Every fanbase is willing to talk themselves into a promising future, no matter how unlikely it may be to outside observers or how many times history has taught them that no, this year is not your year. Maybe Barack Obama came up with The Audacity of Hope from being a Bears fan.
While there are some hopeless teams for whom scrabbling their way out of the basement would be considered a success, there are others who have their sights set on Levi's Stadium, the site of Super Bowl LX in February. Many teams believe they have what it takes to get there, but only two will actually make it. That means that much of the hope we see right now as fans breathlessly hang on every training camp development will ultimately be for naught.
At some point in the season, the balloon will be popped for every team but one. I figure, why delay the inevitable? Lets rip the band-aid off right now for four teams who currently believe that they're contenders, but who will get a heaping helping of heartbreak before it's all said and done. Here goes nothing.
4. Bengals will be doomed by bad vibes and and poor roster construction
If you wanted to make the argument that Joe Burrow is the best quarterback in football, I wouldn't have much of a rebuttal. If you put Ja'Marr Chase on a similar pedestal, I'd say, "Be my guest." Those two are legitimately fantastic.
Is there a world where Burrow and Chase hang 45 points on every defense they face and celebrate a Super Bowl win in the stadium of the team that kept them from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy twice in the '80s? Sure. But what's more likely — that, or the Bengals' laundry list of issues keeping them from reaching their potential?
Let's start with the vibes around this team, specifically as it pertains to the relationship between the front office and the players. Trey Hendrickson is taking a vacation rather than reporting to camp, because the Bengals have been jerking him around for months on a contract extension. This guy led the league in sacks last year, and while less accomplished players around the league are breaking the bank, he's still waiting on a fair deal.
If Hendrickson's situation is bad, first-round pick Shemar Stewart's is even worse. Stewart became the final first-rounder to sign his contract a few days ago, a delay brought on by the Bengals' oddly proprietary way they structure their contracts. The team tried to insert language into the deal that could void Stewart's guaranteed money, while also, per ESPN, offering him a lower training camp roster bonus than last year's first-rounder, Amarius Mims, who was taken one spot lower than Stewart.
The Bengals are not exactly known to have competent, or generous, ownership. It's rare that a team can overcome that and exceed expectations. There's also the issue of the defense, which is going to have trouble stopping anybody this year. Al Golden has replaced longtime DC Lou Anarumo, but there's just not a lot of talent on that side of the ball, especially if Hendrickson doesn't sign.
Cincy finished 25th in the league last year in both yards and points allowed. Instead of addressing the D in free agency though, they threw money at Chase, Tee Higgins and tight end Mike Gesicki. You can't run an NFL team like a fantasy team and hope to win.
If Burrow misses any time, this team is toaster than toast. Even if he stays upright behind an iffy offensive line and puts up another massive season, it's difficult to envision them being better than a Wild Card team with a short playoff lifespan.
3. Lions won't reach recent highs after coaching turnover
The Lions went 15-2 last year to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. A preponderance of injuries laid them low by the time the playoffs rolled around, though, and they were eliminated by the upstart Commanders in the Divisional Round.
Over 20 players ended up on injured reserve last year for Detroit, a figure no team could hope to overcome. The law of averages says the Lions will be healthier this year, and with budding superstar Aidan Hutchinson already back on the field, many fans are expecting this to finally be the season they break through and get to the Super Bowl.
I'm not sold, for a few reasons. First off is brain drain. Ben Johnson was the team's offensive coordinator for the past three years, and in that time he transformed the Lions into the league's scariest attack. He's now in Chicago after taking the Bears' head coaching job.
Aaron Glenn was Detroit's defensive coordinator since 2021, and he worked miracles in overcoming the ridiculous amount of injuries on his side of the ball. He's gone too after going back to his old stomping grounds as the Jets' new head coach.
Johnson and Glenn were two of the hottest coaches on the market, and losing them is no small thing. In Johnson's place is John Morton, who served the past two years as the Broncos' passing game coordinator, but was a senior offensive assistant with the Lions in 2022. Kelvin Sheppard was promoted from within to replace Glenn after having coached the team's linebackers since 2021.
Morton and Sheppard could be great, but the odds are against them being as good or better than Johnson and Glenn. Will Jared Goff be as good with Morton calling the plays? He's experienced a career renaissance under Johnson, but betting on him to continue that under a new coordinator is risky.
Don't get me wrong — the Lions still have a top-three offensive line (even after Frank Ragnow's surprising retirement), and studs on both sides of the ball. They're going to be good, even if the new coaching staff takes some time to warm up. They play in a brutal division and have the third-toughest schedule in the league, though. I think their best chance at a Super Bowl has already passed them by, and any fans expecting anywhere close to 15-2 and/or a 1-seed again are in for a letdown.
2. The rest of the league has finally caught up to the Chiefs
Let's get spicy, shall we? The Chiefs have had a stranglehold over the league forever, but I think this is the year where they finally fall back to earth. Like the Lions, Kansas City went 15-2 last year, but whereas Detroit was dominant in most of their games, the Chiefs seemed to pull win after win out of, pardon the imagery, the deepest reaches of their butt.
Andy Reid's team was 11-0 in one-possession games last year. Dating back to 2023, they've won their last 17 one-score games. I'm not one of those people that thinks being clutch isn't a thing, but there's not a chance in the world they can keep that going.
A lot of people have lost a lot of money betting against Patrick Mahomes and company over the years, but to me, the Super Bowl beatdown at the hands of the Eagles is the moment when the rest of the NFL realized that the emperor has no clothes. I think that when we look back, last year's Chiefs campaign will be viewed as the last stand of an aging dynasty, and the beginning of the end.
That doesn't mean that the Chiefs are suddenly going to become a 5-12 team. With Andy Reid coaching and Mahomes at quarterback, the floor is significantly higher than that. But Travis Kelce looked old last year. All-Pro guard Joe Thuney was traded to the Bears for just a fourth-round pick. The defense was already really stout. Is there anywhere for it to go but down?
The AFC West is no joke this year. The Chargers are legit, the Broncos are a team on the rise, and even the Raiders have a new lease on life with Pete Carroll, Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty. The Bills and Ravens have been stymied by the Chiefs for years, and this feels like the year where they finally say enough is enough. Don't cry because it's over, Chiefs fans. Smile because it happened.
1. Is there a reason people like the 49ers other than an easy schedule?
The 49ers are projected to have the easiest strength of schedule in the league, and I think that's the only thing driving their status as playoff contenders. What else is there to love about this team?
The Niners play in a tough division. The Rams are going to be really good, and a lot of people are high on the Cardinals. Personally, I'm excited to see what the Seahawks can do with Sam Darnold and a defense that will be in its second year under head coach Mike Macdonald.
Brock Purdy finally got paid this offseason with a five-year, $265 million extension. To be clear, I'm a Purdy believer, but the weapons around him are seriously lacking compared to recent years. Deebo Samuel is in Washington. Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL. Jauan Jennings isn't happy about his contract status, plus he hurt his calf yesterday in camp. That's not all, either. Christian McCaffrey followed up two shockingly healthy seasons by playing only four games last year. George Kittle is still a beast, but he'll be getting a lot more double-teams.
San Fran's once-feared defense gave up 25.6 points per game last year. Only the Titans, Cowboys and Panthers were worse. Is bringing Robert Saleh back as the defensive coordinator after his failed stint with the Jets going to fix that? Color me skeptical.
FanDuel has the Niners' win total at 10.5 this year, and I don't see a reason beyond the easy schedule to believe they'll get there. That's not enough, and I'll take it a step further and say they won't even make the playoffs.