According to the current betting odds, the MVP favorites are Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Which, like...okay, cool. The two best healthy quarterbacks in the league are the two MVP favorites. Makes sense.
But those aren't the only candidates. There are unexpected dark horses lurking who could wind up with a viable shot at the award, and MVP isn't the only award where that's true. Could a late-round running back win Rookie of the Year? Could a guy who no one expected would play this year win Comeback Player of the Year? Maybe!
Here are six players who no one expected to be award contenders coming into the season but whose cases have to be taken seriously now.
Baker Mayfield - MVP
Remember when the Browns gave up on the best quarterback they've had since their 1999 relaunch? Well, he's now a bona fide MVP candidate with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Baker Mayfield has led the Bucs to a 5-1 record to start this season. Sure, they haven't been the "best" wins in the world, but the only real "gimme" win was against the Jets. Atlanta, Houston, Seattle and a Brock Purdy-less San Francisco team aren't world beaters, but they're still solid wins.
Mayfield has seen his completion percentage drop a bit this year, but that's been more than made up for by the huge drop in interceptions. Mayfield led the league in picks last year with 16, throwing one on 2.8 percent of his throws. He has just one interception in 2025, which came in the team's loss to the defending champion Eagles. He's also helped Tampa rank sixth in the NFL in points scored per game.
Drake Maye - MVP
There were plenty of people who thought 2025 would be a breakout season for Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, but there's also a big, big gap between "breakout" and "MVP candidate." Like...Maye being the 10th-best quarterback in the league would make sense. Maye leading his team to a 4-2 start and beating the Bills on the road? That might be a little outside of our original expectations.
Despite working with a questionable crew of receiving options, Maye has completed 73.2 percent of his pass attempts this season, with his lowest weekly completion percentage being 65.2 percent against the Raiders in the season opener. He's thrown 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions, with his touchdown rate going up and interception rate going down compared to his rookie year.
Is some of this because the coaching staff has schemed up easy throws for Maye? Sure — his 6.8 air yards per attempt rank just 30th in the league. Still, he deserves credit for executing on the plays.
Cam Skattebo - Offensive Rookie of the Year
Despite finishing fifth in Heisman voting last season, running back Cam Skattebo fell to the fourth round, likely due to concerns that he was too undersized to be an every-down back.
Six games into his Giants tenure, Skattebo is getting that every-down workload, and he's doing big things with it, rushing for five touchdowns already, including three of them in a 34-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles this past week.
The biggest impediment to Skattebo's OROY campaign is that Jaxson Dart will get a lot of the votes if the Giants manage to turn things around, but if Dart struggles while Skattebo keeps finding the end zone, he'll have a chance.
Carson Schwesinger - Defensive Rookie of the Year
When the Browns drafted UCLA linebacker Carson Schwesinger this year, it felt like a lot of people just...didn't really care? It felt like a reach, but not so egregious a reach for anyone to really call for heads, especially when the rest of Cleveland's draft was a confusing mess.
Schwesinger has proven to be one of the most productive defenders in this class. Sure, he doesn't have the juicy numbers in terms of sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions (one, zero and zero, respectively), but he does have 52 combined tackles already. He gives the Browns a reliable tackler in the run game and does have three tackles for loss already, so it's not like he's just standing in the middle of the field, waiting for someone to hit.
Devin Lloyd - Defensive Player of the Year
Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd entered this season with four career interceptions. He's already doubled that, including a huge 99-yard pick-six of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes that sealed a big win for the Jags and could go down as a key moment if the team wins the AFC South and ends up in a position for home-field in the playoffs.
The case against Lloyd is pretty easy to make: interceptions tend to be fluky, so there's no guarantee he gets more, and his lack of sacks and tackles shows that without the picks, he's not making as big of an impact.
And, like, okay, I get that. My counter, though, is that Lloyd has had a flair for The Moment this year, which is this unquantifiable thing. His interception against Mahomes showed that he has great instinct for where the ball is going to go. Who's to say that more interceptions aren't to come?
Darren Waller - Comeback Player of the Year
Darren Waller retired after the 2023 season, then unretired this offseason to join the Miami Dolphins, replacing Jonnu Smith, who was traded to the Steelers.
Waller was out to start the season, but made his return against the Jets, promptly catching two touchdowns. Three games into his comeback year and Waller already has four touchdown receptions.
Winning this award won't be easy. Coming back from retirement probably won't be valued as much as coming back from serious injury. Still, if Waller keeps scoring at least one touchdown every game, then his case will need to be taken seriously.