Despite the NFL being a league driven by parity, there is usually a clear distinction between teams who are playing to win the Super Bowl, when compared to teams who are only hoping to get there. I say it every year. There are eight teams at the start of each season who can realistically win it. There are another 16 who have varying dreams about maybe getting to one. Then, there are the other guys.
Beneath the upper echelon and the middle 16 lie eight teams who are not expected to do much this season. To be quite frank, I am still high on the future of a handful of these teams. I just know that their path toward scaling Mt. Lombardi is too steep to realistically navigate. If any of these eight teams end up winning the Super Bowl this season, consider me absolutely stunned. Let's make the playoffs first.
For some, that is the realistic goal. For others, it may only be a pipe dream. Yes, there are teams occupying the middle 16 in my estimation that could be knocked down to this quadrant, but they seem to have a little bit more upside working for them, or at least in the eyes of the bookmaker over in Las Vegas. A few of these teams may end up being mislabeled, but I doubt any will hold a big parade.
Behold! The eight NFL teams that do not even have to play a game for me to cross them off officially.
8. Carolina Panthers
While I am quite bullish on the Carolina Panthers' upside heading into this season, so much has to go right for them to semi-realistically to come out of the NFC. They could push Atlanta and Tampa Bay in the division, but I highly doubt both will flounder en route to a Panthers' divisional crown. Furthermore, the Panthers still do not have the offensive line or the defense to go on a wild postseason run just yet.
This team's strength lies in their head coach Dave Canales, as well as the passing game he and general manager Dan Morgan are trying to build around third-year pro Bryce Young. If Carolina is to have one of those special seasons in Panthers history, Young needs to play at a Pro Bowl level. Furthermore, where is their game-changing playmaker in the middle of their defense? They need one!
Carolina is only championship-caliber when it has a hall-of-fame player in the defensive front-seven.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
While I could be convinced of the Jacksonville Jaguars outscoring everyone in the division en route to an AFC South championship, I am safely crossing them off for three reasons. That would be first-time head coach Liam Coen, fifth-year starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and above all else, the wacky football culture that always seems to plague this franchise under Shahid Khan's ownership.
If this team does win the division, it will be with an upstart offense that excites us. My question is if the defense has enough horses to keep pace with the opposition should they go up-tempo. Coen left Tampa Bay under strange circumstances. He may be a brilliant play-caller, but he does not feel like a head coach to me. Lawrence is more of a trailer than a tractor under center. This team is too chaotic.
Water needs to find its level in Jacksonville first before we can put them among fringe contenders.
6. Tennessee Titans
Shockingly, I am way too high on the Tennessee Titans this season. I actually have them winning the AFC South with a 9-8 record. While it has something to do with Cam Ward finding his groove in his rookie season with second-year head coach Brian Callahan, it may have more to do with me not really liking any team in the AFC South all that much for that matter. Someone has to win the division, right?
In the event Tennessee does win the division, the Titans will almost certainly be the No. 4 seed. They will get torn to shreds at home between whoever does not win the AFC North between Baltimore and Cincinnati. Ward and Callahan may be the two building blocks worth investing in when it comes to the Titans. I know ownership is a negative under Amy Adams Strunk. I do not trust Mike Borgonzi just yet.
In an absolute best-case scenario, Tennessee has an AFC Divisional Round exit ceiling for this year.
5. New York Jets
At some point, the New York Jets are going to end their NFL worst playoff drought streak. In a way, I am kind of rooting for that to happen this year. Aaron Glenn is giving off the right kind of vibes as a first-time head coach, or at least for now. While it remains to be seen what Darren Mougey becomes as a general manager, this is all about me not trusting Justin Fields as an NFL franchise quarterback.
Whether he has been hurt or not, the guy is simply too erratic to have long-term success in the league. For him to achieve all he can, he needs to have a loaded roster around him, just like he did at Ohio State. He was unable to beat out Jake Fromm at Georgia for a reason. I will never forget that. Until the Jets get a serious starter at quarterback, their league-worst playoff absence will continue.
New York could be the second-best team in the AFC East, but this is only a one playoff team division.
4. Indianapolis Colts
As is the case with the New York Jets, until the Indianapolis Colts get a real answer at quarterback, there is no reason to think they will be winning a Super Bowl, much less making the playoffs. It has been over a decade since they last won the AFC South, a division they used to dominate during its first decade-plus off existence. For now, it will be Daniel Jones vs. Anthony Richardson this summer.
Admittedly, this is the one team in the AFC South I am the most down on. I can envision scenarios in which Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee can all win a division crown. Indianapolis comes up forth in that department every single time for me. With the passing of late owner Jim Irsay, this is an NFL franchise I need to wait and see on before investing any more of my time into. They are so mediocre.
The sooner the Colts realize that Richardson is not their franchise savior, the better off they will be.
3. Cleveland Browns
For as much as I like the partnership of Kevin Stefanski as head coach and Andrew Berry as general manager, perpetual chaos never fully leaves the Cleveland Browns organization. In the first week of August, they have, I kid you not, four quarterbacks vying for the starting job. While I know what Joe Flacco is capable of, it is only a first-round playoff exit quarterbacking this team as it is constructed.
My biggest concern with the Browns is not actually their roster, nor is it the often kooky ownership associated with Jimmy Haslam. It has everything to do with the division they play in. I have Baltimore as my early Super Bowl champion. Cincinnati is poised to end a two-year playoff drought this season. While I do not trust Pittsburgh at all this year, they always win at least nine games under Mike Tomlin.
Even if they did massively surprise everyone, the Browns only have a one-and-done playoff ceiling.
2. New York Giants
If there are two teams in the NFC that are not making the playoffs, the first one I will touch on is the New York Giants. They may have a few young pieces I like, most notably rookie linebacker Abdul Carter and second-year wide receiver Malik Nabers, but I cannot for the life of me understand why head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen were given another season on the job.
In a best-case scenario, this team could be a year away from being a year away. The benchmark would be how we looked at the Carolina Panthers last year or the Arizona Cardinals two years ago. Now is the time to get on the Cardinals' bandwagon. You can be an early arriver on the Panthers if you want. Unless you live in The Tri-State Area, now is not the time to be hopping aboard the Giants' yet.
If this team wins any more than six games this season, then I will be completely stunned by that mark.
1. New Orleans Saints
It was always going to be the New Orleans Saints. You have three unproven quarterbacks on your roster in the wake of Derek Carr abruptly retiring. This is the first year Kellen Moore will be a head coach, as well as Doug Nussmeier's first time being an NFL offensive coordinator. This team has an aging roster that is not ready to compete with the likes of Atlanta, Carolina and Tampa Bay in division.
While I think there is a chance like the New York Giants where they could lay a strong foundation of building blocks for the season to come. This is not a playoff team under any capacity. Unless the entire NFC South completely disappoints, I do not see the Saints taking part in a playoff game for at least three more seasons. They need to figure out it Tyler Shough, or whoever, can play ball or not.
Mickey Loomis kicked the can as far as he could, but the Saints are clearly entering a major rebuild.