Let me paint you a word picture of an NFL team: The team is a legacy organization in the AFC that has had a bit of a mixed bag over the decade or two. Said bag is not necessarily bad, and is even highlighted by Super Bowl success, but as of late the team has had trouble identifying a proper successor to a legendary quarterback. However, by the halfway point of this season, they've sneakily risen to the top of their division (and the AFC), largely on the back of a strong running game (133.6 yards per contest, sixth in the league) and a stingy, if not spectacular, defense (only 18.4 points allowed per game, top three in total yards allowed).
I'm not talking about Mike Tomlin's Steelers (and in fact, under Aaron Rodgers they've largely flipped the above stereotype this season). No, I'm talking about the Denver Broncos, who sit atop the AFC amidst a real sophomore slump from their quarterback Bo Nix, who — according to data presented by NFL analyst Steve Patton — has left the most food on the metaphorical table among all starting QBs through the halfway point of the season. According to the data presented by Patton, Nix trails only rookie Cam Ward and Atlanta's Michael Penix, Jr. (who is basically a rookie himself) in misses caused by uncatchable passes, and laps the field in total missed yards (over 750). Ward has only missed just above 500 total yards himself, and he's the one who's been sacked 38 times through nine weeks (first in the NFL).
Franchise QB? Bo Nix isn't even mid. https://t.co/aj0gWUL2rR pic.twitter.com/iCpTZe2RS6
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) November 5, 2025
Patton's post on X presenting the data would imply that this is damning evidence against Nix as a franchise QB. After he turned heads in his rookie season (let's put a pin in that for now), some would say Nix is in the middle of a sophomore slump, even as the Broncos surge.
But is 2025 actually a sophomore slump for Nix? Let's get some context into his season thus far.
Defining the slump, and how it defines the Broncos as a whole in turn
Let's rewind to the 2024 season. Nix's rookie campaign was defined by one common thread: his improvement over the second half of the season. And the narrative is true, especially if you compare the touchdown totals from Weeks 1-7 (five total) to the last 10 games of the season (24). Over that same stretch, his averaged quarterback rating (76.76 for the first seven weeks versus 104.57 for the last 10) also pops.
But diving deeper into the stats, you'll see less of a trend in Nix's rookie season, and more of a scatterplot. His most efficient games, where his QB rating crossed the 100-point mark, were largely against defenses that were among the easiest to pass against: the Panthers, Falcons, and Raiders. His signature regular season finisher against Kansas City (4 TDs) looks impressive until you remember that the Chiefs were basically sitting all of their stars, including on defense. And his other two efficiency outliers — one against the Chargers, and his other matchup with the Chiefs — came with two of Nix's lowest average depths of target of the year. And for reference, in that game against the Chargers, RB Javonte Williams was Nix's leading receiver by a pretty wide margin.
This is not to say that Nix wasn't impressive then, nor that he is markedly less so this season, especially in a vacuum. I just think that the hype around Bo Nix's rookie year, particularly its second half, is just a little overblown. Nothing that Nix has done has been as egregious efficiency-wise as his first two games were last season — he just hasn't had a "pop" game like the two "big ones" he had last year against the Chiefs' second stringers or against the way-sadder Panthers.
Sure, Nix has dipped a bit in 2025 across the board, at least as a passer (he's currently on pace, however, for more rushing yards and touchdowns). But selling the story of Nix not being a franchise quarterback, or even him entering a dip, is disingenuous. For the most part, Nix is simply who he was last season. On Thursday Night Football against the Raiders, Nix threw for 150 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. It wasn't impressive, but it was enough to win.
What I will buy, however, is that Nix is facing a dip relative to the expectations he set up, especially over the last three regular season games over his rookie year. Many hoped — expected — Bo Nix to pop, and the fact that he's largely treaded water individually is especially damning when fellow 2024 rookie classmate Drake Maye is entering MVP conversations. For comparisons' sake, Nix has 1,976 passing yards through nine weeks to Maye's 2,285, and on nearly 70 more attempts total to boot. He's completing about 13% less of his passes, and on nearly three fewer yards per attempt.
But comparison is the thief of joy. And I'm sure Broncos fans are happy to have Bo Nix where he's at while the team is literally on top of the league. And most importantly, he's still showing plenty of flashes of greatness, especially when it counts. Is he Denver's MVP? No.
But Bo Nix is still young, still has time, and is still a franchise quarterback.