On Thursday night, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell to 7-7 on the season after a 29-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Back-to-back losses to the two teams at the bottom of the NFC South have crashed Tampa back to earth, and what looked at one point like a runaway division for Baker Mayfield and company is now not even in Tampa's control, as the Carolina Panthers have one fewer loss and now control their own fate in the NFC playoff picture.
That's not to say Tampa's about to fully collapse and miss the postseason entirely, but it does mean that what was once a foregone conclusion is now anything but. Tampa has to start winning games — especially its two upcoming games against a surging Carolina Panthers team. Here's how the Buccaneers can still make it to the postseason.
Buccaneers make the playoffs by winning the NFC South IF...
Tampa Bay | Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
Week 15 | vs. Atlanta (Loss) | at New Orleans |
Week 16 | at Carolina | vs Tampa Bay |
Week 17 | at Miami | vs Seattle |
Week 18 | vs Carolina | at Tampa Bay |
Here's the good news for Tampa: the Buccaneers will play the Panthers twice. That gives the team two chances to beat Carolina head-to-head. Win both, and the Buccaneers have the tiebreaker. They'd also hand two defeats to Carolina in the process, so the tiebreaker wouldn't even end up mattering at that point. With just one other game left outside of the head-to-head meetings, the Buccaneers would be in over the Panthers even if Carolina wins its other two and the Buccaneers lose to Miami.
The more interesting scenario is a split of those games. The second tiebreaker would then go to win-loss record in divisional games. Right now, Carolina is 2-1 in divisional games and Tampa is 2-2. With a split, Tampa would finish 3-3 in the division. Carolina, meanwhile, would clinch the divisional tiebreaker with a win this week against the Saints, because then a split of the two Carolina-Tampa games would put the Panthers at 4-2 in the division. So, the Buccaneers really need to win both of those.
If New Orleans upsets Carolina this weekend, then there's a chance we go to a third tiebreaker: best win-loss record in common games. With the loss on Thursday, Tampa is now 5-5 in such games and Carolina is 4-5. Again, the Saints-Panthers game this weekend is huge, because a win there would tie the common record up. What that would mean: the Week 17 games for both teams would matter a lot. Tampa faces Miami while Carolina faces Seattle. Those are common opponents, and if the two teams go into that week tied in common opponents, one team winning and the other losing would give the winning side the tiebreaker.
Beyond that, we get into conference games, then strength of victory, and so on and so on. I'm not going to bore y'all with details here, but suffice it to say this: if Tampa wants to win the NFC South, it needs to sweep the Panthers.
Buccaneers can get a wildcard spot in the playoffs IF...
They don't. I mean, there might be a weird scenario where it could happen, but I've been messing around with ESPN's playoff predictor tool for a little bit here and I'm not finding a combination of results, since for the Buccaneers to be in the Wild Card race, they'd need a loss to the Panthers to eliminate them from NFC South contention.
I could sit here and keep messing around, but I think one thing is clear: if the Buccaneers want to make the playoffs, the only realistic path is to sweep the Carolina Panthers over the final three weeks of the NFL season.