As the season turns and the NFL's regular season winds to a stop, the race for the league's most-coveted piece of single-player hardware heats up.
And unique to this year, the race seems extremely tight. Between the historic might of the Los Angeles Rams' offense, the sheer improbability of the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers making it into the 2025 playoff picture, the history being made on Cleveland's defensive line, and the annual greatness of Hailee Steinfeld's husband, the 2025 MVP race is truly anybody's guess -- especially after a momentous Week 15. Here are all of the frontrunners and the cases for and against each's MVP bid:
Honorable Mentions:
Myles Garrett
In any other season, Myles Garrett's record-breaking 26-sack pace would make him the clear-cut frontrunner for the award. However, no player has ever won the MVP award with a losing record, much less a non-quarterback, and the Browns are on pace to earn a top five pick in 2026. Free the man.
Jonathan Taylor
If only Daniel Jones had not torn his ACL in Week 14, if only the Colts had not fallen apart to finish the season, if only, if only, if only... Similarly to Myles Garrett, Jonathan Taylor's incredible 2025 season (1,443 rushing yards, 103.1 yards per game, 16 rush TDs) is largely a tragedy, but for a different reason. The Colts were poised to do what New England is doing, but injuries have torn them apart.
Jordan Love
ESPN's Bill Barnwell made a compelling case for Jordan Love's MVP candidacy, in that he is the offensive driver of a division leader, an advanced stats darling, and an overcomer of injuries and an uninspiring receiving corps. However, Love simply hasn't popped as much as the top three quarterbacks leading the MVP race.
Matthew Stafford
Case for:
The first thing to look out for in Matthew Stafford's MVP case is his absurd production through the season thus far. Going into Week 15, his 35 touchdowns outpaced the rest of the quarterback field by a comfortable margin of nine. And even a horrific game against the less-than-stellar Panthers passing defense in Week 14 couldn't dampen his season thus far too much, more likely than not saying more about Carolina as a team overall than the Rams. Los Angeles still has the most explosive offense in the league, it is helmed by arguably the league's best thrower of the football this year, and if that isn't enough to move you, there is also the legacy argument in Stafford's favor -- the storyline of him garnering MVP attention for literally the first time in his career is compelling.
Case against:
Stafford's case against his MVP candidacy is an odd reversal of his favorables. Yes, a TD/INT ratio of above 7:1 is historic, but that game against the Panthers rendered him and the Rams' offense mortal, if in nothing less than in the eyes of the voting public. Likewise, the narrative of his late-career surge can also bite back, as this is also the most loaded offense in the NFL outside of him.
Davante Adams almost laps the rest of the receiving field in red zone production (14 receiving TDs), Puka Nacua is jostling for a top five finish in total receiving yards, and only the Lions duo of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams match the duo's placement atop the reception touchdown leaderboard. Kyren Williams finds himself atop several rushing leaderboards, the Rams' scoring defense is a top three unit in the league, and all of that mixed together makes a team that's almost so well-rounded as to be a detriment to any singular MVP case. And with a field as stacked and tight as this race is, you only need one slip-up like the one against Carolina in Week 14 to open the door for someone else to take the throne.
Drake Maye
Case for:
And with the door that Stafford left open, we have the frontrunner from the AFC. Drake "Drake Maye" Maye finds himself throwing to a relatively underwhelming receiving corps, and yet only trails Dak Prescott in total passing yards (3,412) and yards per game (262.5), while also leading a Patriots team that was not supposed to lead the AFC East for a few more years, at least. Maye's narrative isn't just that he and New England are ahead of schedule -- they are what most expected Bo Nix and Denver to do after the 2024 season, but with a worse roster.
Case Against:
Then Week 15 happened. Right now, the race atop the 2025 MVP is a three-man affair, and the third name in it shares Maye's division. The Patriots have racked the wins up enough, but they have been been on an insanely weak schedule, with contests against the Bills bookending a stretch where the toughest team New England has faced has been a depleted and reeling Buccaneers team. Buffalo hasn't gone away, and Week 15 was sneakily a sneaky test for a young team riding a bit of a high.
And just like Stafford's game against Caroina, Maye did not pass (14-of-23 passing, 155 yards, 1 INT, 1 rush TD). In fact, if it wasn't for the Bills' porous run defense and TreVeyon Henderson's big day (14 attempts, 148 yards, 2 TDs), the 35-31 loss could have been a lot worse. More on the other side of the football just below.
Josh Allen
Case for:
He is the best quarterback in the NFL. With Lamar Jackson injured, there is no singular quarterback that any team would rather build around. And boy, oh boy, did Allen prove that in Week 15 (19/28 passing, 193 yardds, 3 TDs). That performance was against not only the division-leading Patriots, but against another MVP frontrunner, and, in many ways, what could end up being a younger version of Allen himself.
The game was a microcosm of the Bills' season in general: they got beat the ground (246 rushing yards, four TDs allowed, long of 65 yards) while relying on chunk plays and their own powerful rushing game (107 rushing yards, 3 total TDs) to come from behind. And with one of the worst receiving corps in the league, Josh Allen still showed out as the AFC's quarterback to beat this season. Think about this: Allen threw for three (!) touchdowns on the day, and not a single one of his receivers was targeted more than five times. In fact, the three touchdowns went to his backup tight end (2) and running back (1).
This is a man turning lemons into lemonade almost on his own. With all of the Bills' problems, he is still top three in completion percentage (70.1%), yards per attempt (8.2), and top ten in yards per game (237.2) among full-time starters. He also leads the league in total touchdowns (37). If the MVP really stands for what its acronym speaks to, there is likely no single player in the NFL more valuable than Josh Allen.
Case against:
Allen also happens to be among the league leaders in interceptions (10). And for all of the Bills' receiving struggles, this season has also marked the absolute ascendance of running back James Cook (1,415 yards, 101.1 yards per game). On top of that, Allen's transcendent efficiency and perfection from 2024 has not proved to be all that sustainable in 2025: his interception rate has doubled year over year (1.2 percent to 2.6 percent) and his sack rate has tripled from 2.8 percent to 7.6 percent. These could be attributed to how much the Bills' offense simply relies on Allen's gifts to carry them, but just like Stafford and Maye, anything less than perfection among this crop of MVP hopefuls simply opens the door for someone else to rotate in and take their spot.
Christian McCaffrey
Case for:
If we're talking about the Patriots being ahead of schedule, how about the San Francisco 49ers? They're not necessarily ahead of schedule, but any other team with their rash of injuries would be forgiven for hanging the season up. And yet, they are 9-4 in the NFC West, are comfortably holding onto the NFC's last Wild Card spot, and have done so without their best defensive player and much of their receiving corps throughout essentially the entire season.
You can chalk that up to two things: incredible coaching and a 2,000 total yard pace from Christian McCaffrey. He is on pace for his second campaign with at least 1,000 yards each as a runner and receiver. Not only that, but his 85 receptions through Week 15 rank fourth -- not among running backs, but in the NFL. In fact, Jahmyr Gibbs has the next-most receptions among all RBs, and McCaffrey outpaces him by 27. And that's with Mac Jones throwing him the ball for extended periods of time. Alongside Josh Allen and Drake Maye, McCaffrey might be the single-most truly valuable player in the league.
Case against:
The MVP is a quarterback trophy -- sadly, it is as simple as that. The last non-QB to win the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012, and while running backs historically have the best odds to win among all non-QB's, position only counts for seven MVP winners since 1957. And the narrative around this year seems to be much of the same: who will win the round-robin of perfection between Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, and Josh Allen. And to break into that fraternity, you need to be absolutely historic.
Truly, if the Browns had any shot of winning the AFC North, Myles Garrett would have the best shot out of the field of non-QBs to become a frontrunner for the award. And sadly, you have to dig a bit deeper than the box score for McCaffrey's historic 2025 campaign. But it's there, and as long as the Niners keep winning, he could pull off the upset.