Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have faced each other nine times on an NFL football field. The overall record is incredibly close, with Mahomes holding a slim 5-4 edge. Try telling that to a Bills fan though, because while Buffalo holds a 4-1 regular season lead in that time, the Chiefs have always found a way to win in January with the season on the line, often in the most painful way possible for a Bills fanbase that is used to getting hurt.
These rivals will meet again on Sunday, and both come into the game fresh off blowout wins the week before. The Bills came out of their bye and slaughtered the Panthers 40-9, while the Chiefs had an easy time on Monday Night Football with a 28-7 win over the Commanders.
It's tough to read too much into either of those results, because both the Panthers and Commanders were playing their backup quarterbacks. Neither Bobby Babich nor Steve Spagnuolo needed to break a sweat as their defenses limited Andy Dalton and Marcus Mariota to single digits, but they have their work cut out for them this week.
Allen is fresh off his first MVP season, and he should be well-rested after the bye and letting James Cook do most of the work last week. Mahomes has three MVPs of his own, and with his 2,099 passing yards (second in the league) and 17 passing touchdowns (tied for first), he's looking to reclaim the mantle as the best quarterback in the NFL. He's certainly been helped in this endeavor by the return of Rashee Rice two weeks ago, and the continued strong play from Travis Kelce, who has proven that reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated.
It's big news any time the Chiefs and Bills face off. This is *the* marquee matchup in the NFL right now, and both teams look like they're going to figure prominently into the AFC playoff picture once again. The Bills were the league's last undefeated team and are 5-2, while the Chiefs overcame a rough start to win five of their last six and get to 5-3.
The Chiefs' playoff success has made this a one-sided rivalry
Let's take a quick look at each meeting between these two teams since Allen and Mahomes have been the starters, before sizing up Sunday's game and figuring out who has the upper hand right now.
Date | Location | Round | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
10/19/20 | Buffalo | Regular season | Chiefs 26-17 |
1/24/21 | Kansas City | AFC Championship | Chiefs 38-24 |
10/10/21 | Kansas City | Regular season | Bills 38-20 |
1/23/22 | Kansas City | AFC Divisional | Chiefs 42-36 (OT) |
10/16/22 | Kansas City | Regular season | Bills 24-20 |
12/10/23 | Kansas City | Regular season | Bills 20-17 |
1/21/24 | Buffalo | AFC Divisional | Chiefs 27-24 |
11/27/24 | Buffalo | Regular season | Bills 30-21 |
1/26/25 | Kansas City | AFC Championship | Chiefs 32-29 |
There have been so many classic games on this list, especially in the playoffs. Who can forget the back-and-forth masterclass from Mahomes and Allen in the 2022 divisional round? Three lead changes in the final two minutes culminated with the Chiefs getting in range for a game-tying field goal in the final 13 seconds, then winning the coin toss in overtime and driving down the field to win the game.
The past two playoff meetings have been worthy encores, with the Chiefs marching into Buffalo in 2024 and getting a win after Bills kicker Tyler Bass missed a game-tying field goal in the final two minutes. This past season's playoff matchup followed a similar script, with the Chiefs taking a late lead and benefiting from a Bills miscue, this time when Dalton Kincaid dropped a pass at the two-minute warning that would have given Buffalo a first down and allowed them a chance to continue driving for the tie or the win.
Mahomes and Allen have both played at historic levels in these playoff games. They've each tossed nine touchdowns in the four matchups, and Allen's intercepton in the 2021 AFC title game is the only one either has thrown. He's also fumbled five times but lost none, while Mahomes lost the only fumble he's had.
Mahomes has the edge in passing yards at 290.75 to Allen's 259.75, while Allen's 66.75 yards rushing per game bests Mahomes' 34.0, though Mahomes does have three rushing touchdowns to Allen's two.
Who has the edge on Sunday?
Sunday's game is in Buffalo, but FanDuel has the road Chiefs as slight 1.5-point favorites. Given the recent form of both teams, that seems fair. We mentioned above how each team blew out inferior teams last week, but before that, the Chiefs have looked like the better squad by a pretty significant margin.
Beginning with Week 3's win over the Giants, Kansas City is 5-1 and averaging over 29 points per game. Other than a loss to the Jaguars on Monday Night Football on October 6 that's looking flukier by the week, their defense hasn't allowed over 20 points in a game since Week 1.
The Bills have been going the opposite direction after their 4-0 start. They lost a Sunday night game at home to the division rival Patriots in what turned out to be Drake Maye's coming out party, then they had their worst offensive performance in eons the following week in a 24-14 loss at Atlanta.
Buffalo is the more banged-up team. Defensive tackle DaQuan Jones has already been ruled out for the third game in a row with a calf strain, while Josh Palmer and Shaq Thompson will also be on the sidelines. No doubt the biggest loss is Ed Oliver, who tore his bicep against the Panthers last week and was placed on IR.
Even without Oliver, the Bills have done a good job of getting to the quarterback this year. They rank fifth in the league with over three sacks per game, and with Mahomes absorbing three sacks twice in the last three weeks, they have to feel like they can make things tough on him. What they haven't done is stop the run, as they currently rank at or near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed, yards after contact and rushing touchdowns given up. That's good news for Kareem Hunt, who should get the bulk of the carries with Isiah Pacheco on the shelf with an MCL sprain.
Buffalo ran all over Carolina last week, but they'll be hard pressed to do it this week. Kansas City's defense has been dominant, holding the Commanders and Raiders to 355 combined yards of offense. Even more impressive is the way they held down the Lions' potent attack in Week 6, frustrating Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and company all night en route to a 30-17 win.
The Highmark Stadium crowd will be as rowdy as ever on Sunday, but at this moment in time, the Chiefs feel like the better team. Both teams could really use the win, as they're both in the unfamiliar position of not leading their respective divisions. The Chiefs are better offensively and defensively right now, so they're the pick in a close one.
The history these two teams share shows us that what happens in the regular season isn't indicative of what will happen in the playoffs. If the Bills lose this one, they shouldn't despair just yet, because they'll likely be much healthier if they get a January rematch. This season has shifted from where it once was, as people were writing Kansas City's obituary after the first couple of weeks, while the Bills were everyone's Super Bowl favorite. Just like one of their classic games where they swap multiple fourth-quarter leads, our perception of these two teams figures to change another time or two before the season is done.