Don't do it, Cowboys fans. I'm begging you. Don't get hyped up about this upcoming NFL season. Don't believe that this is your year. Don't do this to yourselves. We've seen this story before, and we all know how it ends.
If it seems impossible for fans of a squad known as "America's Team" to not be loud, confident and bombastic, that's because history has proven that it is. The Cowboys are the most prestigious franchise in the NFL, and have been since Tom Landry and Roger Staubach were winning Super Bowls in the '70s. That moniker was only reinforced two decades later as Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin reclaimed the league's top billing. How 'bout them Cowboys?
If Dallas has been the league's most popular and famous franchise, then the past three decades have been the equivalent of Tom Hanks following up his back-to-back Oscar wins for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump with 30 years of direct-to-VHS and direct-to-DVD slop.
The Cowboys haven't even reached an NFC title game since they won the Super Bowl in 1995. They've had some good regular seasons, to be sure, but have always flamed out in the playoffs. Even three straight 12-5 seasons from 2021-23 yielded nothing more than one postseason win and three early exits.
Being known as competent but ultimately unthreatening is a status that some of the league's most moribund franchises would aspire to, but when you're the Dallas Cowboys, that's not enough, and it's certainly not enough to go 7-10 and miss the playoffs entirely, as they did last year. That disappointing season resulted in the team mutually parting ways with head coach Mike McCarthy after five seasons.
While the Bears and Patriots energized their fanbases by hiring Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel, respectively, the Cowboys' coaching search inspired little confidence. Deion Sanders was rumored to make the leap from college back to Big D, a move which would have broken sports Twitter (though we can debate whether it would have been a smart move for either the Cowboys or Sanders himself). In the end, Jerry Jones went with a very un-Cowboys choice when he promoted offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to be the team's new head coach.
Jones has been known for choosing the splashy move over the right one, so perhaps the Schottenheimer hire is a sign that he's finally learning from past mistakes. Conversely, it could be indicative that Cowboys head coach is no longer the prestigious job it once was.
Nevertheless, Cowboys fans have slowly but surely, just as they do every year around this time, begun to talk themselves into a big season.
Why might the Cowboys improve from a year ago?
McCarthy was nothing if not solid, but his ceiling was limited. It remains to be seen if Schottenheimer differs from his old boss, but there are some reasons that people such as Troy Aikman believe that the Cowboys are going to surprise some people.
The biggest one is injuries. Dallas only got half a season from Dak Prescott, as he tore his hamstring in Week 9. Nearly the entire offensive line was hurt at some point in the season, and former All-Pro corner Trevon Diggs had his season cut short by yet another catastrophic knee injury. DeMarcus Lawrence missed nearly the entire year with a Lisfranc injury. Micah Parsons was kept off the field for multiple weeks by a high ankle sprain. DeMarvion Overshown tore everything in his right knee later in the year.
Getting those players back will at least give the Cowboys a chance to compete, as will new arrivals such as George Pickens and Javonte Williams, both of whom were acquired via trade. The Cowboys also got positive reviews for their draft haul, which included 12th-overall pick Tyler Booker of Alabama, an interior lineman who is expected to fill Zack Martin's shoes after the seven-time First Team All-Pro retired in March. Boston College edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku was a great value in the second round and should help to replace Lawrence's production after he left for Seattle.
Here's why Cowboys fans need to calm down
The NFL is undoubtedly more interesting when the Cowboys are good, but there are more reasons to be skeptical of a bounce-back than there are to be confident. For one, Schottenheimer is totally unproven as a head coach, and other than one aberrational year in 2023, his offenses have been mediocre or worse.
There's no guarantee that Johnson and Vrabel will find success in their new jobs, but there's a reason they were so sought-after. Schottenheimer feels like what Jerry Jones settled for because he needed more time to work on his scene from Landman.
Prescott's return from his hamstring injury is also uninspiring. We've all gotten tired of the debate by now over whether he's elite or just a Kirk Cousins doppelganger, but while he's certainly an improvement over Cooper Rush, he's proven throughout his nine years in the league that he can't take a team to the promised land. Expecting him to do it now after another leg injury is the definition of insanity.
As for fans who are excited to watch George Pickens catch passes alongside Ceedee Lamb, keep in mind that most receivers don't thrive after the Steelers trade them away (look to Santonio Holmes, Antonio Brown and Chase Claypool for proof). Pickens has major work ethic and maturity issues, and there's no reason to believe they'll be cured with a change of scenery.
Then there's the schedule, which ranks as the fifth-toughest in the league. The Cowboys are now clearly behind the Super Bowl champion Eagles and the NFC runner-up Commanders, and their final seven weeks are an absolute gauntlet, with dates against the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Chargers and Commanders all in a row.
Add it all up and you have a recipe for another middling season, and that's if the roster stays relatively healthy. If Prescott or Parsons goes down, things could get ugly. So please, Cowboys fans. Don't set yourself up for more crushing disappointment. Go in with low expectations, and if they come true, you won't get hurt again.