It's the middle of August, which means it's time for fantasy football managers to say things like, I think we're undervaluing Deebo Samuel in drafts. And, hey, that's not the craziest proposition. Samuel was traded to the Commanders this offseason and according to Fantasy Pros, Samuel's average draft position is No. 83. That does feel low for a guy who's going to get loads of opportunity with Commanders young star QB Jayden Daniels — who Samuel is quickly developing chemistry wtih, according to Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic:
"Daniels’ connection with Deebo Samuel is already there, a product of their reps before practices, conversations between series and budding friendship off the field. “From there, it’s kind of just grown each and every day,” Daniels said. The sight of Daniels hitting Samuel on a deep ball, or Samuel breaking through a pair of defenders on a crosser, has become common in training camp — the primary bright spot amid growing concern about the Commanders’ receiving corps."
Samuel is WR1 in Washington by default
At his peak, we've seen Samuel be a game-breaking wide receiver. In 2021, he caught over 1400 yards, rushed for nearly 400 more and scored 14 total touchdowns. That's about as valuable as a player can get, especially on a fantasy roster. In the years since then, though, injuries and a smaller role in San Francisco have made him less viable as a weekly starting option. He hasn't cleared 1000 yards in any year since then, topping out at 892 in 2023; in conjunction with his seven touchdowns that year, that's far from a slouch, but it's not representative of his talent, either.
So, how much should you buy into the offseason conversation that Samuel is ready for a breakout 2025? We often hear stories like this about athletes whose careers have taken a downturn. Sometimes they're legit and the player does have a resurgence. Sometimes... not as much, and whatever offseason workout regimen they claim to be on doesn't translate to the field.
On the scale of "believable offseason hype," I do think Samuel's falls closer to "legitimate" than "propoganda." A new offensive scheme, a quarterback who's close to joining the elites of the league and a clean slate of health are all real reasons to get excited. You probably shouldn't be the manager who takes Samuel in the third round because, "Just trust me," but a "reach" on Samuel could pay dividends.
Oh God, I may have fallen for it yet again. But I can't help it. I've talked myself into Deebo Samuel in 2025.
Terry McLaurin's holdout impacts Samuel greatly
If Terry McLaurin and the Commanders settle their differences and agree on a contract before the season starts... well, that changes the outlook for Samuel pretty drastically. With McLaurin in the picture, Samuel is a clear second option for Daniels. That's still worth a flier, by all means, but the upside is limited considerably.
If McLaurin's holdout continues, though... could Samuel emulate McLaurin's 2024 season or something close to it? Around 80 catches, nearly 1100 yards and 13 touchdowns? It doesn't seem impossible, especially when looking at the rest of the Commanders receiver core, which is extremely thin.