Spoiler: These props are going over. In total, these numbers equal 4,681 yards between Jalen Hurts throwing the ball and Saquon Barkley running it. Last season, those two combined for 4,908 yards. The Philadelphia Eagles offense isn’t going to be that much less efficient in 2025 than it was in 2024… right?
All of these props come down to two questions: What do you think the Eagles' offensive identity is going to be this season? Are they going to stick to what worked last season and ride Saquon Barkley’s legs or pull a change-a-roo?
All signs point to more passing for the Eagles
Keep in mind that last season, Barkley was essentially on a two-year deal, and the team ran him into the ground. Not only did that make sense, but it also worked incredibly well.
This offseason, the Eagles extended Barkley and dumped a shipping container full of cash in his front yard. It would make sense for the Eagles to give him a relative break and move the ball through the air more.
That’s not to say that they’re going to flip the script and go from a 55.7% run rate to a 35% run rate, but even if they throw the ball 80 more times, those passing and receiving numbers are going to skyrocket. That’s especially true if defenses sell out to stop Barkley like the Chiefs did in the Super Bowl.
All of lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, July 11.
Jalen Hurts Regular Season Passing Yards: 3200.5 yards
Jalen Hurts had his lowest passing yardage as a starter last season with 2,903 yards. In a vacuum, that makes the 3,200.5 seem pretty steep… but then you remember that the Eagles were the most run-heavy offense in the entire league, and he only threw the ball 361 times. That makes the 3,200.5 a lot more interesting.
For what it’s worth, in 2022 and in 2023, Jalen Hurts threw the ball for 3,701 yards and 3,858 yards. When this passing game clicks the way that we know it can, Jalen Hurts has the potential to steam roll past 3,200 yards.
Saquon Barkley Regular Season rushing yards: 1450.5 yards
This number seems unbelievably low, but it kind of makes sense. In his career, Barkley has only run for over 1,450 yards once, and that was last season… But that’s where the sense-making ends.
This total implies that Barkley is only going to rush for 72% of what he rushed for last year; in other words, he’s going to have almost a 30% decrease in production. Barring injuries, that seems crazy.
It’s not a perfect example, but think about 2023 with D’Andre Swift. That season, the Eagles had a 45% run rate, Jalen Hurts threw the ball a career high 538 times, and Swift still had 1,049 rushing yards… in a broken offense.
If your job is to run the ball in Jeff Stoutland’s run game, you’re going to have the opportunity to get mega-yards. That’s even more true when you’re the best running back in the world. I think Barkley hits the over, even if he does have 50 to 70 fewer carries than he did last season.
A.J. Brown Regular Season Receiving Yards: 1100.5 yards
When I saw this number, I had to look up ‘A.J. Brown Firework accident’ because again, this number seems very low. He’s good, so this number doesn’t just seem low; it is low.
Last season, A.J. Brown had 1,079 receiving yards, and he only played in 13 games, and (to fully beat this dead horse) he was on the team that had the lowest pass rate. That was the second-fewest receptions and the third-highest yardage in his career. The guy is still phenomenal, and I imagine that he’s going to go back to being the focal point of the offense (or maybe just more of a focal point).
Even if he does miss some time, he’ll still be able to bury 1100.5 yards. In 2022, he hit over 1,100 receiving yards in Week 15, and in 2023, he did it in Week 13. This is wild.
DeVonta Smith Regular Season Receiving Yards: 850.5 yards
As a rookie wide receiver, lined up opposite Jalen Reagor, and playing with first-year starter Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith had 916 receiving yards. In 2022, that number shot up to 1,196. It was 1,066 in 2023, and then 833 in 2024… while playing only 13 games.
DeVonta Smith is a tough dude. He’s only missed four games because of injuries. In 2023, it was one game because he got rolled up while blocking for an equally stupid and meaningless screen. In 2024, it was one game because of a concussion from a super dirty play in New Orleans, and then two more games because of an aggravated hammy. The dude is incredibly durable.
If DeVonta Smith is alive, he’s going to play football, and if DeVonta Smith is playing football, he’s going to have over 850.5 receiving yards. Last year was a fluke, and it’s crazy that sportsbooks are looking at last year like it’s the new norm. The disrespect here is on a professional level, and it’s disgusting.
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