The Chicago Bears are 8-3 and lead the NFC North division going into Thanksgiving. Yes, you read that correctly and no, Jay Cutler is not the quarterback anymore. After escaping a Week 12 bout with the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-28, it looks like second-year passer Caleb Williams has finally stepped into his role as franchise QB. But is this season just a Windy City mirage akin to the over-exceeding Washington Commanders of yesteryear?
That's yet to be seen but with six games remaining this year, Chicago has an opportunity to set itself up for a solid spot in the playoffs and that could open up a unique opportunity. Let's evaluate that best-case scenario.
How high of a seed could the Chicago Bears clinch in the NFC?
Mathematically, the Bears are still in contention for the No. 1 seed in the NFC but there's a lot of football left and multiple teams that would need to have near-collapses for that to happen. As things currently sit, Chicago holds the three-seed as leaders of the NFC North trailing only the Los Angeles Rams (9-2) and Philadelphia Eagles (8-3).
Here's what Chicago's schedule looks like to close out the season. It'll have three all-important divisional games on deck that will decide whether it enters the playoff bracket as a top-four seed or a wild card.
Week 13 @ Philadelphia
Week 14 @ Green Bay
Week 15 vs. Cleveland
Week 16 vs. Green Bay
Week 17 @ San Francisco
Week 18 vs. Detroit
That's a stretch of games that could either yield enough wins to shoot the Bears into the No. 1 seed or tank them outside the field altogether. Based on the way they've been able to just find ways to win, I'm inclined to lean towards the former.
Realistically, Chicago gets three to four wins from this stretch. Specifically, I think they split with Green Bay and beat both Cleveland and San Francisco. The Philadelphia and Detroit games are toss-ups because if the Eagles that blew a 21-point lead to Dallas and the Lions that needed to claw its way to an overtime win over the New York Giants show up, Chicago has a legitimate chance of going 5-1. If the defending Super Bowl champions and the Lions fourth quarter defense show up, then the Bears are staring at 3-3 to finish the year.
Finishing .500 wouldn't be a terrible thing but Chicago's potential division crown would be contingent on the Packers and Lions each falling victim to the Vikings down the stretch. That seems unlikely. A sweep of the Packers by the Bears should wrap things up for them in the North.
How deep can the Bears go in the NFC playoffs?
Let's say the Bears average out to a 4-2 finish, splitting with Green Bay and beating one of either the Lions or Eagles to clinch the NFC North. For the sake of argument, that should earn them no lower than the No. 3 seed in the conference bracket.
They would then get to host a Wild Card round game, which will be a big advantage if their opponent is a warm weather team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or San Francisco 49ers. Either of those contests would be winnable and Chicago could realistically advance to the Divisional round.
Next would likely be a date with another division winner, probably the Eagles. This is where Chicago's road would come to an end. It would be very tough to go on the road to Philadelphia, not because of the weather but with how well that team seems to play when everything is on the line.
Just winning a single playoff game a year removed from going 5-12 would be a huge achievement. Even if Chicago falls to a wild card spot, there's a significant chance it could go on the road to a place like Green Bay or the winner of the NFC South and advance.
The Bears are building something special and this year's postseason could be our first taste of that potential success.