The Seattle Seahawks went for two in overtime against the Rams on Thursday night, with Sam Darnold's completed pass to Eric Saubert sealing the victory for Seattle. That win puts Seattle in the No. 1 spot in the NFC at the moment, but its position there is no guarantee in a tight NFC playoff picture. Seattle still needs to win out to assure itself of home-field advantage and the NFC's lone first-round bye. That won't be easy, as the Panthers and 49ers remain on the schedule. Both of those are good teams, and losing to either puts the team in a tricky spot.
In fact, The Athletic's projections give Seattle just a 30 percent chance of getting the No. 1 seed if it loses to the Panthers, and a 17 percent chance if it loses to the 49ers. (Losing to both would be guaranteed to send the team to the Wild Card.) Let's look at what the other No. 1 seed contenders need to do to steal the top seed away from Seattle.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have to win out. The loss on Thursday night was a huge, huge impediment in the team's hopes of landing the No. 1 seed, and even winning out would only give the team about a one-in-three shot at that seed.
The Rams need help here. Going 2-0 is in their control, but everything else is outside of it. First, Seattle has to lose a game. Two losses would be best, but one could be fine. Los Angeles should have the common opponent tiebreaker.
The issue here is that the Rams also need the 49ers to lose one of their final three games. San Francisco has a tough schedule ahead, so that should happen, but the Rams have no control over it.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco has a game remaining against Seattle, so the 49ers actually control their own destiny as well: win out, and the 49ers are NFC West champions.
That's it. There's a slight chance the 49ers could get the No. 1 seed if they go 2-1 to end the season, but not much of a chance. A loss to the Colts followed by wins over Chicago and Seattle would only give the team a little under a 10 percent chance to get the top seed. A 2-1 record with the loss to Seattle would eliminate the team from No. 1 seed contention.
Chicago Bears
Meanwhile, the Bears actually have a very good shot to earn the No. 1 seed, but it requires three wins in a row over three very good teams: Green Bay, San Francisco and Detroit.
Drop one of those and Chicago's chances of earning the top seed become very, very small, but not impossible. Win all three, and the path gets very simple: Seattle needs to lose one of its remaining games, and the Bears would win the No. 1 seed because of the conference record tiebreaker.
It's definitely possible, but it's maybe a little improbable considering who Chicago still has to play. Don't count Ben Johnson's team out, though.
Do any other teams have a chance at the No. 1 seed?
Yes, but those scenarios are unlikely. Green Bay could take the top seed if it wins out, but would need a lot of help: four other games have to go a certain way, including some unlikely results like a Falcons win over the Rams.