Quarterback Sam Darnold is going to the Super Bowl (as a starter) and you'd be hard pressed to find any fan or pundit that could've predicted it would happen with the Seattle Seahawks when he was first drafted third overall in 2018. Darnold flamed out with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers before eventually landing with Minnesota Vikings in 2024. Minnesota benefitted from Darnold's resurgence that year but decided his career-best numbers were a one-off situation that ended in a playoff collapse.
So, instead of investing in his progress and rolling with him another season, the Vikings decided it was time for QB of the future J.J. McCarthy (who was essentially a second-year rookie in 2025) to take the reins. At the conclusion of this season, the Vikings posted five fewer wins than in 2024 and missed the postseason altogether after McCarthy was only able to log 10 games. Despite those results, Minnesota doesn't deserve the blame its getting for letting Darnold walk.
The Vikings' fortunes weren't made or broken by Sam Darnold
Even if the Vikings decided to bring back Sam Darnold for the 2025 season, there was no guarantee Minnesota would've made the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. Even with Darnold at the helm last year, he led them to 14 wins and still fell short in the Wild Card round.
That win total would've earned Minnesota its first NFC North title since 2022 and, for the sake of argument, the No. 1 seed in the conference (since Seattle got it with 14 wins of their own in reality). But if you consider the butterfly effect, Darnold would not make the same in-game decisions he did with Seattle in our reality and probably make different mistakes.
But from a purely football viewpoint, Minnesota's roster was not nearly as talented as Seattle's this season. Justin Jefferson had a down season - although it could be argued that was from a lack of targets by McCarthy - and head coach Kevin O'Connell's system is vastly different from Mike MacDonald's.
The wild card in this situation is Minnesota's defense. They averaged fewer offensive yards surrendered than Seattle overall but didn't turn on the jets until late in the year. The Seahawks were more consistent on that side of the ball, providing superb run support for the already red-hot offense.
On top of the on-field differences, Minnesota would've had to commit to Darnold being a long-term starter and that would've interfered with O'Connell's clear vision of McCarthy taking over his project. O'Connell rolled the dice on McCarthy in the first round in 2023, lost early with the youngster missing the entire season due to injury, but that's when Darnold emerged as an entirely new QB. Without that opportunity, Darnold and Seattle are not playing in Super Bowl LX.
So, let's not play the "what if" game, Vikings fans. Your coach made the bed, and now the team has to lay in it. There could still be a high ceiling with McCarthy under center, especially if the offense were to add one more weapon and boost the offensive line.
You were meant to be with Darnold for the time you had, you just weren't meant for forever — or in this case, a long-awaited Super Bowl run.