It's been quite some time since Kansas City Chiefs superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been an elite fantasy football asset, let alone a decent one. Despite regularly being drafted early, he's finished just at or outside the top 10 at his position in points per game (PPG) in consecutive campaigns. Folks are now avoiding him entirely, but should they be?
The pendulum has swung so far to the "fade Mahomes" side of the argument that you could argue he's now being underrated. Yes, it's been a disappointing past couple of seasons, but few possess the combination of floor and ceiling that the three-time Super Bowl champion does. With that in mind, did managers overcorrect his value, or is it justified?
Where is Patrick Mahomes ranked among QBs in fantasy football?
Mahomes is currently the overall QB6, according to FantasyPros' consensus rankings. In other words, the fantasy community is treating him as a mid-tier QB1 and essentially a set-and-forget option at this stage in the offseason. Yet, as previously alluded to, Kansas City's franchise signal-caller has been far from that over the past two seasons.
Why are we turning a blind eye to Mahomes' shortcomings as a fantasy weapon in recent years? Have the circumstances in Kansas City changed? Are folks confident in him bouncing back? Or is this simply a matter of name recognition playing a factor in the face of the NFL's draft stock?
After finishing fourth, sixth and fourth in air yards from 2020 to 2022, Mahomes has been 14th and 15th in 2023 and 2024. Is there any reason for the Chiefs to take a different approach in 2025? All they've done during this stretch is go 26-8 en route to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, including one title.
If game script and their shoddy, new-look offensive line allow, maybe Mahomes and the Chiefs can let it rip more. After all, rising second-year wideout Xavier Worthy was brought in to be the deep threat they've lacked since trading All-Pro Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. Wide receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown are tracking to be fully healthy after a season-ending knee injury and nagging shoulder issue, respectively.
However, the Chiefs boast one of the best defenses in football, which should remain the case this upcoming year, headlined by future Hall of Famer Chris Jones. While Mahomes has voiced a desire to bring back the "explosive" element of their offense, Steve Spagnuolo's stop unit may prevent that from happening. Kansas City isn't built to get in shootouts, which doesn't bode well for Mahomes' fantasy outlook.
Last season, Mahomes finished 26th in yards per attempt (6.8), which yielded the eighth-highest expected FPPG among QBs (19.1), though he only averaged 18.4. It speaks to the low-upside, dink-and-dunk nature of Kansas City's passing attack. So, managers may want to think twice when looking at his QB6 price tag; that's too rich for our blood.