The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-1 heading into Week 6, and finally favored by the oddsmakers to win the AFC North. That is not a position most pundits expected Pittsburgh to be in this early in the season, but given the collapsing division around them, it shouldn't be all that surprising. The Baltimore Ravens fell to 1-5 last week thanks to loss to the Rams heading into their bye. The Bengals are 2-4, still reeling from losing Joe Burrow to what could be a season-ending injury when all is said and done. And the Browns are in rebuild mode, as their visit to Pittsburgh on Sunday did not go according to plan.
Team | Record |
|---|---|
Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-1 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 2-4 |
Baltimore Ravens | 1-5 |
Cleveland Browns | 1-5 |
What the Steelers have that those teams don't is a clean bill of health. While the injuries will come, as they do every season, the question is how big of a division lead Pittsburgh can build before the effects of an early bye week start to show, or the likes of Lamar Jackson return to the Ravens, who were favored to run away with the AFC North before the season.
While Pittsburgh took care of business on Sunday – and Myles Garrett went missing in the process – Mike Tomlin will face a familiar foe on a short week this Thursday night. The Bengals may be shorthanded, but they have time on their side.
Mike Tomlin-coached teams don't perform well on a short week
When Mike Tomlin's Steelers have time to prepare for their opponent – hence, a full week – they're usually up to the task. Tomlin, as most of these readers surely know, hasn't finished under .500 in his coaching career so far. As much as I make fun of this statistic since the Steelers also haven't won a postseason game in nearly a decade, it is impressive. Tomlin has led some questionable Steelers teams to winning records and the playoffs. That includes the end of Ben Roethlisberger's career and the start of Kenny Pickett's. Yet, if we're looking for a true crack in Tomlin's resume, it's the Steelers performance in Thursday Night Football games, especially on the road.
Tomlin is 2-9 career in road Thursday night games since he was hired in 2007. That's a .182 winning percentage. In comparison, the rest of the NFL has a .431 winning percentage in road Thursday night games. Here are the results, and I must warn Steelers fans, they aren't pretty.
Year | Steelers opponent | Final score |
|---|---|---|
2007 | Rams | W, 41-24 |
2009 | Browns | L, 13-6 |
2012 | Titans | L, 26-23 |
2013 | Ravens | L, 22-20 |
2014 | Ravens | L, 26-6 |
2015 | Patriots | L, 28-21 |
2016 | Colts | W, 28-7 |
2019 | Browns | L, 21-7 |
2021 | Vikings | L, 36-28 |
2022 | Browns | L, 29-17 |
2024 | Browns | L, 29-14 |
That's jarring to look at, and includes losses to some really bad teams including the Browns four times over. In AFC North road games on Thursday night, the Steelers have a combined record of 0-6 under Tomlin. To make matters worse, the Bengals have won five of their last six Thursday night games at home. The metrics are setting the Steelers up for disaster.
The stats favor the Bengals, but Steelers have no excuse
Sure, it's a short week and the statistics are stacked against Pittsburgh, but Tomlin's Steelers are out of excuses. Tomlin-coached teams are typically due at least one inexcusable loss to a losing team per season, if not more. The Bengals would make a lot of sense, as they just acquired longtime Pittsburgh rival Joe Flacco, and have been quite successful hosting Thursday night games on a short week. So far, the Bengals are saying all the right things – including Ja'Marr Chase suggesting Pittsburgh is going to 'raw dog' Cincinnati – while Tomlin spent his press conference wondering why Browns GM Andrew Berry traded Flacco to a division rival.
"To be honest, it was shocking to me," Tomlin said Monday. "Andrew Berry must be a lot smarter than me or us because it doesn't make sense to me to trade a quarterback that you think enough of to make your opening-day starter to a division opponent that's hurting in that area, but that's just my personal feelings."
Tomlin doubled down on his shot Cleveland's way – which came after a 23-9 home win over the Browns – by praising Flacco and the Bengals for acquiring him.
"It certainly made sense from Cincinnati's perspective," Tomlin said. "... He can throw the football, and he's always been able to throw the football -- arm strength, arm accuracy, anticipatory passer, fluid movement through progressions. That's always been his game."
Flacco struggled against the Packers last week, but he also had just a few days to prepare. Given his familiarity with the Steelers defense and the cohesiveness he is forming with Bengals wide receivers like Chase and Tee Higgins, this game could be a lot closer than the experts think.
For Pittsburgh, it's a chance to put even more distance between themselves and the rest of the AFC North. They best not miss.