The most competitive race in the NFL right now is in the NFC West, where the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are tied at the top with matching 11-3 records while the San Francisco 49ers are breathing down their necks at 10-4. The league's playoff picture could be heavily impacted by who wins the best division in football, with all three teams scoring wins in Week 15 to set the stage for a critical Thursday night showdown in Seattle between the Seahawks and Rams.
The Rams have a leg up at the moment thanks to a head-to-head win over the Seahawks at SoFi Stadium in Week 11, and a victory at Lumen Field on Thursday would give them a season sweep. The 49ers are still lurking as well, having split their season series with the Rams and getting one more crack at Seattle in Week 18 after earning a victory over Sam Darnold and company back in Week 1. Let's take a look at some playoff scenarios for all three teams still vying for the NFC West title.
NFC West Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 16
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have the inside track on the NFC West crown thanks to their head-to-head victory over Seattle and their one-game lead over the 49ers, who still have to deal with the Colts and Bears before getting the Seahawks in Week 18. Sweeping Seattle on Thursday night would give them a 95 percent chance to lock up the NFC West according to The Athletic's NFL Playoff Simulator, with one win in their final two games (at Atlanta on Monday night and hosting Arizona in Week 18) sealing the deal.
Winning against Seattle but then dropping the final two games would open the door to get passed by the Seahawks, who could win their final two games against Carolina and San Francisco to finish with a better overall record than the Rams. The 49ers could also run the table in this scenario and swipe the division from the Rams on the strength of a better divisional record.
Seattle Seahawks
The path to the NFC West crown for Seattle is entirely contingent on winning on Thursday night. Falling to Los Angeles again would drop the Seahawks' NFC West odds down to 1 percent, as they would need to finish with a better overall record than the Rams to avoid losing the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Winning the rematch and ensuring a season split bumps the Seahawks' division title odds up to 53 percent, and they would have the inside track on the NFC West if they run the table. The Rams would be favored to win their final two games against Atlanta and Arizona, but the Seahawks would still come out on top with a 14-3 record as opposed to 13-4 for Los Angeles.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are still in the hunt here so we can discuss their path too, which essentially requires them to win out and get help to end up in a tie with Seattle for the division. A Rams' win essentially boxes out the 49ers, who would need Los Angeles to lose to Arizona in Week 18 to have a shot to win the division on a tiebreaker.
Either way, the math is strongly in favor of all three NFC West teams reaching the postseason, but the division path will largely be shaped by the result of Thursday night's critical showdown in Seattle.