NFL Combine fact or fiction: Makai Lemon, Caleb Downs rumors and more

The NFL Combine might as well be renamed to the NFL Rumor Brewhouse. Every year, NFL Draft hopefuls flock to Indianapolis along with coaches, scouts, team officials and media. Every year, that collection of human beings results in a Pandora's box of rumors being let out into the world. The challenge is figuring out what's real and what's not.

After a week full of talk and chatter, we're pulling apart the threads to get to the bottom of things.

Makai Lemon bombed his interviews: Fiction until proven otherwise

Makai Lemon was the main character of the NFL Combine. Much like Twitter, you don't actually want to be the main character. The issue for the USC wide receiver was two-fold. First, a clip from his interviews with the media went viral because he...well...looked bizarrely intense.

Having an interview go viral is pretty harmless, especially since Lemon didn't say anything wrong. He just looked like the snake from the jungle book.

The harmful stuff came later when former Steelers lineman Breiden Fehoko, draft analyst Robinson L. Wittmore and Jets insider Chris Nimbley suggested Lemon bombed his in-person interviews with teams. If Wittmore is to be believed, multiple teams even took him off their draft boards.

The question is whether you believe Wittmore and the others. I'm not calling anyone a liar, but no undeniably reputable source has indicated there's fire behind this smoke. Wittmore is a self-proclaimed draft expert with less than 2,000 followers on X and no apparent links to a credible outlet. Fehoko traffics in rumors based on his connections within the sport, but his credibility is suspect. As for Nimbley, he is in media as a Jets beat writer, but he doesn't break news on this scale.

It would be different if there were hints from the likes of Adam Schefter or Ian Rapoport that teams had concerns about Lemon because of his interviews. Teams supposedly had concerns about Caleb Williams and the Combine. That clearly didn't mean much.

As it stands, Dan Brugler's post-Combine mock draft for The Athletic still has Lemon as the second wide receiver off the board at No. 16. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has him going No. 13. ESPN's Jordan Reid even has the Jets moving up to No. 12 to go get the Biletnikoff winner. If his stock was actually down, the most reputable publications out there would reflect that.

Caleb Downs' medical concerns are a red flag: Fiction

NFL fans, especially ones of teams in need of a safety, got a bit of a shock during the Combine when Daft on Draft’s Cory Kinnan reported that medical testing revealed some red flags around Ohio State's Caleb Downs. According to Kinnan, testing revealed a partially torn meniscus and potentially degenerative ACL. The former is a minor issue. The latter could have serious implications.

Whether or not there was a flag on his ACL, it doesn't seem like teams are concerned in the slightest. Pat McAfee reported on Tuesday that no one around the league was sounding alarm bells.

As McAfee points out, the Combine is ripe for rumors with ulterior motives. Many a player has been denigrated behind the scenes in a bid to inject doubt into other teams' minds. If the doubt sticks, said player could fall into the lap of whatever team started the rumor in the first place.

The difference between the Downs rumors and the Lemon rumors is getting such a clear rebuttal from multiple teams.

Ty Simpson is QB2: Fact

Alabama's Ty Simpson declared for the NFL Draft despite significant uncertainty around his stock. He's got talent, but very little college experience. And that experience was hit and miss. Had Dante Moore or Trinidad Chambliss entered the draft pool, Simpson might have found himself clinging to a spot in the top five quarterbacks available. Instead, he entered the Combine with the chance to solidify his place as QB2 behind Fernando Mendoza. And he effectively did that.

Simpson impressed enough during on-field workouts to convince most that he's the second-best QB on the board. Beyond that, he flipped the question of his draft stock from "Is he QB2?" to "Is he a first rounder?"

Ian Rapoport suggested during the Combine that Simpson's most likely landing spot is the back half of the first round. His presence could even entice a QB-needy team to move up into the first to get him.

Carnell Tate's 40-yard dash is a problem: Fiction-ish

Carnell Tate's 40-yard dash supplied one of the great mysteries of the Combine. What did he actually run? The official electronic time clocked him at 4.52 seconds. That's the answer right? Well, it's not so simple, because NFL executives and GMs doing their own hand timing on site had him between 4.45 and 4.47, according to Adam Schefter. Schefter even supplied receipts when Mike Florio suggested he was pushing propaganda for Tate's agent, Drew Rosenhaus.

It might not seem like much, but the gap between 4.45 and 4.52 is significant, particularly for the presumptive WR1. The vast majority of first round receivers who ran at the Combine produced times near or faster than 4.45. If that 4.52 mark is to be believed, Tate would be the slowest receiver to be selected in the top 10 since Justin Blackmon in 2012.

A 4.52 isn't "slow" for a receiver. Many receivers with similar testing have gone on to have good if not great careers. However, to be taken first off the board at your position, scouts expect elite physical testing.

It would matter a whole lot less if Tate had the size to make up for a slower 40. However, he measured in at 6-foot-2, 192 pounds. Not exactly standout numbers.

So it's not really the 40 that's the issue. It's the unimpressive 40 paired with the uninspiring frame. According to NFL.com, his Combine Athleticism Score was 40th among wide receivers. Getting outrun by 6-foot-4 receivers like Ted Hurst, Ja'Kobi Lane and Colbie Young isn't ideal for a guy looking to get picked in the top 10.

But this is also a great time to talk about physical testing. The Combine exists to get people's mouths watering, but nothing compares to tape. And Tate's tape is better than just about everyone's. His game doesn't rely on speed or size. Any team that passes on him because his speed out of a three-point stance in shorts wasn't blazing fast is asking to be ridiculed.

Diego Pavia's stock is dropping: Fact...But not for attitude reasons

Diego Pavia lost the Heisman Trophy race, lost the press conference afterwards and seems to have lost the NFL Combine too. It's been a tough few months for a guy who dragged Vanderbilt kicking and screaming to their winningest period in...ever.

Pavia's brash personality is front and center when discussing his stock. People don't like the way he talks. They don't find his jokes endearing. They find his confidence off-putting.

Basically, Pavia is this year's Shedeur Sanders. A productive college quarterback who doesn't seem to understand where he actually lands in the pecking order.

The thing is, Pavia's personality isn't the actual problem. In fact, coaches almost certainly love his tenacity and approach to the game. As for in front of the cameras, he could have turned up to the Combine with a halo over his head and Tim Tebow's personality and his stock still would have fallen.

Why? He's 5-foot-10. It's really that simple. Only two quarterbacks in the past 10 years were drafted at that height: Bryce Young and Kyler Murray, who both overcame their height with elite arm talent, athleticism and potential for development. Put simply, unless you're close to generational talent, you're not getting drafted at 5-foot-10. Hell, you're not making an NFL roster, full stop.

Pavia's stock was already limited. The Combine was only ever going to do one thing: Confirm his height, i.e. confirm his biggest flaw. His on-field workouts could have been perfect (they weren't) and he'd still come away with a mark against him. And he didn't even try to mitigate the height issue by showing off his speed. Choosing not to run a 40-yard dash says a lot about whether that kind of testing would have helped him either.

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