NFL Playoff predictions: Divisional Round picks straight-up and ATS
NFL Divisional Round Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Bills at Broncos (Sat.) | Bills | Bills +1.5 |
49ers at Seahawks (Sat.) | Seahawks | Seahawks -7 |
Texans at Patriots (Sun.) | Patriots | Patriots -3 |
Rams at Bears (Sun.) | Rams | Bears +3.5 |
2025-26 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 166-112 (Last Week: 5-1 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 131-144-3 (Last Week: 4-2 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
It honestly makes me a bit sad that we only get to make four picks this week. That melancholy is sure to be felt even deeper in my soul during conference championship week when there are only two games on the docket. Having said that, we should be in for quite an enjoyable Divisional Round, which will surely make some of those negative feelings and malaise go away.
Outside of 49ers-Seahawks — a game in which we'll unpack a bit more in a second — every one of these games has the feelings of what could be an absolute instant classic for the NFL Playoffs. The Bears and Rams feel like near polar opposites, and it's going to be fascinating to see how they match up, the same of which (perhaps even more so) is true of the Bills-Broncos clash. And don't sleep on the Texans-Patriots game as there's quite a lot going on with those two sides matching up.
But if you want some more thoughts, vibes, emotions, or anything of the sort for these four Divisional Round games, as always, I have them broken down into the toughest and easiest predictions from where I'm sitting on the week.
Toughest NFL Divisional Round predictions to make
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (+3.5)
I can't tell you how many times I went back and forth on this, so it shouldn't be surprising that I ultimately landed in the middle with the Bears covering as home underdogs, but the Rams advancing. But there's good reason to believe in both of these teams, and to think that this matchup could steal the show in the Divisional Round.
On one hand, the cold weather narrative about Matthew Stafford is somewhat overblown, especially considering that he's gone for 300+ yards with a 5-1 TD-INT ratio in two of his three starts in sub-40 degree temperatures with the Rams. At the same time, his career performance in such games is still, overall, substandard by his measure. That is to say, I'm struggling to know what to expect from the Rams signal-caller in chilly Chicago in the elements, even against a Bears defense that I remain less than confident in.
Where I ultimately landed, though, is that this will be more of a defensive struggle than some people might imagine. Something like 16-13 could end up being the final score as the cold mitigates some of LA's firepower, while the Rams defense is prepared to bottle up Caleb Williams and company. The Bears will have a chance, but I think they fall just short of the upset, though they still cover.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)
Given how dominant the Texans defense looked against Pittsburgh and how middling the Patriots appeared to be against the Chargers, I was honestly a bit shocked to see New England favored by the full field goal in this one, even playing in Foxborough. However, the more that I think about it, things do line up sneakily well for the Pats and Drake Maye to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship Game.
Admittedly, I don't expect much from the Pats offense in this matchup. That's no slight to Maye or Josh McDaniels, but, rather, a statement on how damn good the Houston defense is and how that unit can wreak havoc on just about any offense in the league. At the same time, I do believe the balance of the New England offense and the playmaking of Maye will allow them to get on the board, even if marginally.
But I'm actually looking at the Patriots defense against C.J. Stroud as the more crucial matchup in this Divisional Round clash. The Texans defense overshadowed the fact that Stroud was sub-pedestrian against the Steelers, while the New England defense had Justin Herbert in a complete blender. Mike Vrabel not only has the moxie to confuse and limit Stroud and the Texans offense, but the Pats defense is getting healthy at the right time with Christian Gonzalez looking ready to return. In the end, this should be another defensive struggle, but I like that to actually favor the Patriots instead of the Texans.
The easiest NFL Divisional Round picks to make
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
There's a part of me that feels foolish for discounting the 49ers to this degree, especially when I still can't quite get all the way there to trusting Sam Darnold in the playoffs. At the same time, my belief in the Seahawks defense and in Klint Kubiak as a whole still has me thinking that Seattle can dominate this game against San Francisco as the injuries continue to pile up.
Because Christian McCaffrey has still been able to find overall success, it's been muted that the 49ers have struggled to run the ball for most of the season. That's the worst thing that could happen to San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan in this matchup. If Mike Macdonald knows that the offense is largely one-dimensional right now, and is also now without George Kittle after his Achilles injury, that Seahawks defense is going to feast in this matchup.
More than that, the 49ers defense is getting more public love for holding the Eagles to 19 points than they really should. Not only did wind play a factor in that matchup, but Philadelphia's offense had been a problem for months coming into that game. The Seattle offense isn't perfect, but they have become stellar at just allowing their defense to control the action, which will ultimately end up being the story in this game.
Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Denver Broncos
Make no mistake, I still don't trust the Bills defense in the slightest, and I fully expect Sean Payton to have plenty dialed up with RJ Harvey and the Broncos rushing attack to exploit the glaring weakness for Buffalo. At the same time, I'm not going to doubt Josh Allen, even against Denver's truly elite defense, when it comes to the playoffs.
Allen has been playing out of his mind for a while now, including in the Wild Card win over Jacksonville last week. His receiving corps is lacking, James Cook has been inconsistent, and yet I still believe in the perennial MVP candidate to come through. Let's not act like we haven't seen him, through shear force of will, carry his Bills offense against defenses just as good as what the Broncos are going to throw at them on Saturday.
More than that, I still don't trust the Broncos offense as a whole. Yes, it's a good matchup for them (and any offense) at this point, and they should run the ball well. But when push comes to shove, I don't believe in Denver's young signal-caller to be able to ultimately keep up with Allen and the Buffalo offense. This won't be a blowout either way, but the playoff experience of the Bills will show up, especially in the quarterback play.