NFL Draft 2026: Realistic expectations for all 32 first-round picks

Even though they were both wide receivers who were drafted in the first round, it’s not fair to compare Carnell Tate and Omar Cooper Jr. to each other. Tate is coming into a situation where he’s going to be WR1 and has a quarterback, whereas Cooper is going into a WR2 role and his quarterback is a broken JUGS machine mounted to a wheelchair. 

The plan here is to set realistic expectations of what a successful rookie season is for all of the 2026 first-round draft picks. That means going through all of the first-round picks, going back to the 2016 draft, and finding guys who are in similar situations as the 2026 guys.

I looked at the production numbers of those similar guys, got an average, and set that as a rough benchmark for what a successful season would be for this class of rookies … And as always, the numbers don’t mean everything, but they do mean something.

The Rookie Benchmarks

For the top 10 picks, the grading system is a little different. Those guys, ideally, were drafted where they were because they were the ten best players available. That means we’re not going to be finding a goal for them based on their scenario. Instead, it’ll be based purely on other guys who play the same position and were drafted around the same time as them. 

Stats aren’t really a thing for offensive linemen, which is largely what makes those guys so noble and awesome. When it comes to guards, the main thing we care about for this piece is their availability. That means we’re looking at the number of games they started as a rookie, and their snap count (not percentage). 

When we’re looking at offensive tackles, we’re going to look at the number of sacks and pressures they allowed (via PFF) as well as the playing time. Every other number I used for this came from  Pro Football Reference.

No. 1 Fernando Mendoza, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

Quarterbacks who were drafted first overall have largely had pretty bad rookie seasons, but it’s not their fault because teams that are willing to draft a quarterback first overall are terrible as a whole. 

Since 2016, the first-overall quarterbacks are Caw Ward, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield. 

A successful rookie season for Fernando Mendoza means that he doesn’t play a single snap of football. No one in their right mind is trying to say that Mendoza is going to be the next Patrick Mahomes, but he is set up to have that kind of developmental year. 

The Raiders signed Kirk Cousins back in April. The plan has to be for him to start and play for as long as humanly possible. The Raiders are set up for failure this season. If they can just make it through to 2027 with Mendoza soaking as much in as possible behind one of the NFL’s premier veteran quarterbacks, much better things are going to happen down the road. 

However, if he does have to play, the mark is a 61.2% completion rate, a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3:2, and 3.1 sacks per game. That’s going to be tough with a bottom-three wide receiver room, but if he can do better than the guys before him, we might be looking at a real dude. 

No. 2 David Bailey, OLB, New York Jets

We’re setting Davis Bailey’s bar based on the first defensive end/edge rusher who was taken, but not if they were taken first overall. That last part is just to take Myles Garrett out of the equation. 

He didn’t have as great a rookie year as you would expect (because he missed six games), but taking him out is just out of respect for how awesome he is.

We’re looking at Will Anderson, Aidan Hutchinson, Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Bradley Chubb, Solomon Thomas, Joey Bosa, and Dante Fowler.

The more impressive thing is that Anderson, Young, and both Bosas were all Defensive Rookies of the Year. If Bailey can get the production and affect quarterbacks at this average level, it’d be sweet, but being the DROY is kind of the norm for guys drafted in his spot.

No. 3 Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are dumb. They had a billion problems with their roster, and they spent the third-overall pick on a luxury. Regardless, we have to grade this … and it’s not going to be fair to Jeremiyah Love. 

It would be nice to set his bar based on other running backs who were drafted into a scenario like his (read: a bad offense and sub-par offensive line), but too bad … he’s getting compared to all of the first running backs who were drafted in the top 10. That’s Ashton Jeanty, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Ezekiel Elliott

The guys before Love set the bar very high. And unfortunately for him, he’s coming into a situation closer to Ashton Jeanty than any of the other three guys. To make matters worse, both Barkley and Zeke won Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

If Love could hit 1,238 rushing yards in his rookie season, that’d be the most regular-season rushing yards by a Cardinals running back since David Johnson’s 1,239 in 2016.

No. 4 Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans

Carnell Tate is in elite company because, typically, wide receivers who are drafted at the top of their class have gone on to do some pretty sick things … Typically, but not always.

For his benchmark, we’ll look at Marvin Harrison Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, Corey Davis, and Amari Cooper; wide receivers who have been drafted in the top five of their classes.

It really seems like Tate is going to be a real deal … but even if he’s not, at least he’s going to have a better rookie season than Corey Davis. He missed five games with a messed-up Hammy, but it was still bad even if you consider that.

No. 5 Arvell Reese, LB, New York Giants

In case you forgot, Arvell Reese has the potential to be both an inside linebacker and an EDGE. It would be very dumb for the Giants to have him play both rather than develop at just one spot … but they’ll probably run him out there as both.

The only player that we can really compare him to is Micah Parsons. In his rookie season, he was doing the same thing that Reese is expected to do. 

It’s not really fair to say that Parsons’s rookie year is the end-all be-all for this type of player. So, in an attempt to be a little realistic, let’s knock 30% off of each of those numbers. That means Reese’s benchmark should be 59 tackles, 9 sacks, 21 QB hits, and 14 TFLs … and that’s still a whole lot. 

No. 6 Mansoor Delane, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

During the draft, the Chiefs traded up to take the first cornerback, so we’re setting Mansoor Delane’s goal based on other top-15 cornerbacks who were the first one drafted in their respective classes. 

That means it’s Devon Witherspoon, Derek Stingley Jr., Jaycee Horn, Jeff Okudah, Denzel Ward, Marshon Lattimore, and Jalen Ramsey … Those are some names.

Delane looks like just about as perfect a cornerback prospect as you'll get. If there’s one issue with this, it’s that after a handful of good games at the beginning of the season, Delane will stop getting tested by quarterbacks, and they’ll just start throwing away from him and at Nohl Williams. PBUs and interception opportunities would drop, but you’ll take a lack of stats if it means a wide receiver gets put in prison.

No. 7 Sonny Styles, LB, Washington Commanders

Unlike Reese, Sonny Styles is a regular-old, pure inside linebacker. Those guys typically don’t get drafted in the top-10 … But the ones that we’re looking at are Isaiah Simmons, Devin White, and Roquan Smith. 

There are some inherent problems with setting a benchmark for a linebacker. The biggest one is that they’re asked to do different things in different defenses; However, the mechanics are roughly the same: tackle, cover, and disrupt. 

If you’re drafting a stereotypical linebacker like Styles this early, he had better give you those stereotypical numbers like White and Smith … and not the numbers from a safety/linebacker hybrid like Simmons.

No. 8 Jordyn Tyson, WR, New Orleans Saints

Jordyn Tyson should probably be compared to first-round wide receivers who were drafted by teams that already have a WR1 … But he was drafted in the top-10, so that overshadows his circumstances. For fairness, we are going to take out the wide receivers who were drafted in the top five.

The guys setting the bar are Tetairoa McMillian, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Mike Williams, John Ross, and Kevin White.

The last three guys are helping drop that goal pretty low, but you still have to include them because bad seasons happen. If Tyson can stay healthy and Tyler Shough keeps spinning it the way he did at the end of 2025, the numbers are absolutely doable, even with Chris Olave.

No. 9 Spencer Fano, OT, Cleveland Browns

The Browns had to rebuild their entire offensive line this offseason, and the young building block they added at tackle was Spencer Fano. He was the first offensive tackle picked in the draft, so he’s getting compared to Will Campbell, Joe Alt, Paris Johnson, Ikem Ekwonu, Penei Sewell, Jedrick Wills Jr., Mike McGlinchey, and Ronnie Stanley. 

Cam Robinson was the Browns’ left tackle last season, and he allowed eight sacks and 40 pressures. It’s going to be phenomenal for Cleveland if Fano can come in and play even at an average level. 

No. 10 Francis Mauigoa, OT, New York Giants

Francis Mauigoa will probably eventually be one of the Giants' tackles, but right now, they are in a pretty solid spot with Jermaine Eluemunor and Andrew Thomas. That means he’ll probably end up getting the job at right guard. For him, the important thing is just to get reps. 

It’s tough to set a benchmark for a tackle playing a different position, so we’re going to use the same tackles that we used for Spencer Fano: Will Campbell, Joe Alt, Paris Johnson, Ikem Ekwonu, Penei Sewell, Jedrick Wills Jr., Mike McGlinchey, and Ronnie Stanley.

A successful season for Mauigoa means staying healthy, playing, and developing. If he’s able to get some rookie snaps at either tackle (preferably right), that’s just icing on the cake. 

No. 11 Caleb Downs, S, Dallas Cowboys

There’s been some very, very mixed results for the first safeties who were drafted in the first round, and it makes sense. Like linebackers, these guys have incredibly different jobs based on their schemes, and in the past five seasons, the two-high shell has made it even more different. 

So for Caleb Downs goals, we’re looking at stats that cover a bunch of different things. Snaps for his availability, missed tackle percentage for his tackling ability, completion percentage for his coverage chops, and the air yards allowed on completions for (roughly) how good they are deep. This isn’t perfect, but it’s a good start.

We’re looking at Kyle Hamilton, Darnell Savage Jr., Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jamal Adams, and Karl Joseph.

If Downs is the player that he’s been propped up to be, he shouldn’t get targeted. That means his completion percentage might be high, but the air yards should be relatively low. Just like with the Chiefs and Mansoor Delane, you'll take that for a rookie season ... making plays can come later.

No. 12 Kadyn Proctor, OT, Miami Dolphins

It looks like the Dolphins are doing the same thing the Giants are doing with Francis Mauigoa: draft a tackle and play him as a guard until he’s ready/needed to move to tackle. It’s not a terrible plan. 

So just like with Mauigoa, Proctor's goal is going to be set by playing time. The difference is that we’ll be using offensive linemen who aren’t exclusively tackles and were picked between 10th and 20th overall in their drafts.

That’s Tyler Booker, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Peter Skoronski, Kenyon Green, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Chris Lindstrom, and Laremy Tunsil.

Proctor has the highest bust potential of any of the first-round offensive linemen that were drafted in 2026 … but he’s also got a massive upside. This year needs to be about him getting on the field, staying on the field, and then being awesome. Anything less than that is going to be rough for a rebuilding Dolphins franchise.

No. 13 Ty Simpson, QB, Los Angeles Rams

We’ll just pass over Ty Simpson. He was drafted to be a backup quarterback, and we’re not going to waste our time with it. 

No. 14 Olaivavega Ioane, G, Baltimore Ravens

Vega Ioane was the only pure guard drafted in the first round. That makes it pretty cut-and-dry when it comes to the people who are setting the bar. It’s Donovan Jackson, Kenyon Green, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Cesar Ruiz, Chris Lindstrom, Quenton Nelson, Joshua Garnett.

The Ravens drafting Ioane was very safe, and this is a very safe projection. Hell, it’s probably even sandbagging a little bit. He should be ready to roll and slide in perfectly, and injuries aside, he should be good for the whole season as a starting caliber player. There’s no reason he shouldn’t blow this goal out of the water. 

No. 15 Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

None of these comparisons are going to be perfect because Rueben Bain is an odd cat. He’s incredibly physical, but then there’s the whole ‘he’s built like a T-Rex’ thing going on. We’re not going to focus on his build, but more on the position that he’s playing and where he was drafted. 

We’re basing this on Jalon Walker, Laiatu Latu, Will McDonald, K’Lavon Chaisson, Brian Burns, Marcus Davenport, and Derek Barnett.

There’s been some very mixed results for this group of guys. As long as Bain can stay on the field (and his mega short arms aren’t an issue), it seems like he should be able to be above average, right? Four sacks? 24 tackles? Those should metaphorically fall in his lap.

No. 16 Kenyon Sadiq, TE, New York Jets

We’re going to move the goalposts for Kenyon Sadiq and the Jets. Yes, he was the first tight end taken off the board, but he’s coming to a team that also has a young tight end in Mason Taylor. 

That means we’re not going to compare him to Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren. They were drafted in the first round, but they came onto teams that had established veterans. Instead, we’re looking at Brock Bowers, Hayden Hurst, and David Njoku.

With Brock Bowers on one side of the spectrum, Hayden Hurst on the complete opposite side, and David Njoku pretty much smack dab in the middle, it’s not crazy to think Sadiq could hit this goal.

The obvious problem is that Geno Smith is the one throwing the football … But that might make it even more impressive. 

No. 17 Blake Miller, OT, Detroit Lions

The Lions' offensive line was in trouble at the beginning of the offseason, so they drafted Blake Miller and signed Larry Borom in free agency. Even though Borom signed a teensy one-year deal, Dan Campbell has said that these two guys are going to compete for the starting job at right tackle (with Penei Sewell moving to left tackle).

Maybe that’s just coach speak, but Campbell does seem like a pretty authentic guy; maybe there’s some realness to that competition. 

So first of all, Miller needs to win that starting job. That’s different than Borom losing it. After that, Miller needs to keep it. 

Then he can start getting compared to other mid-first round tackles like Amarius Mims, Broderick Jones, Trevor Penning, Tristan Wirfs, Kolton Miller, and Taylor Decker.

It’s easy to say that an NFL offense is only going to be as good as its offensive line, but that's especially true for the Lions offense with Jared Goff. 12 starts and 808 snaps might be the average for guys like Miller, but they desperately need him to be closer to a rookie Taylor Decker … which is convenient because that’s who he’s (kind of) replacing. 

No. 18 Caleb Banks, DT, Minnesota Vikings

It’s not Caleb Banks’ fault that the top of the 2026 draft class wasn’t loaded with good defensive tackles, and it’s not his fault that he was the first defensive tackle to get drafted … But we’ve got to set his goal somewhere. 

To make it a little fairer, we’re using Byron Murphy II, Jordan Davis, Vita Vea, and Sheldon Rankins; guys who were the first DTs drafted in their class, and they were also outside of the top-10. 

An important thing to remember with all of this is that it takes a second for most defensive tackles to really get going in the NFL, and that is especially true for guys who aren’t top-10 prospects. 

The most important number for Caleb Banks is the snap percentage. If he can get on the field and stay on the field (which is asking a lot given his foot injury), those other stats should come …

If the snap percentage is low, everyone who was down on Banks during the pre-draft process is going to be puffing their chests.

No. 19 Monroe Freeling, OT, Carolina Panthers

We’re going to give Monroe Freeling the same treatment as Blake Miller. He’s a mid-round tackle who is coming in and competing for the starting job. The difference is that Freeling’s battle is going to be tougher because it’s against Rasheed Walker, the free agent they just gave $10 million to. 

Regardless, we’re still looking at Amarius Mims, Broderick Jones, Trevor Penning, Tristan Wirfs, Kolton Miller, and Taylor Decker. 

It would be a good thing if Freeling won the job right away, but if he doesn’t and he spends a year as the Panthers swing tackle, that’s perfectly fine too. This isn’t a team that’s necessarily in win-or-die mode just yet, and a year where their first-round pick sits back and develops is totally cool.

No. 20 Makai Lemon, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

For Makai Lemon, we’re going to do what we didn’t do for Jordyn Tyson. We’re going to look at guys who were drafted later in the first round, and they join wide receiver rooms with certified WR1s. 

That’s Emeka Egbuka, Ricky Pearsall, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Jahan Dotson, Rashod Bateman, CeeDee Lamb, N’Keal Harry, Calvin Ridley, and Will Fuller.

The Eagles are losing A.J. Brown and getting an offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion. That means someone is going to get more targets, and it’ll be in an offensive scheme that has made many quarterbacks who are less talented than Jalen Hurts look like All-Pro players.

If Lemon’s ability to bounce off tacklers translates to the NFL, he should be blowing these numbers out of the water. 

No. 21 Max Iheanachor, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers

Max Iheanachor has a hell of an uphill battle because he’s a guy who should’ve been drafted by a team that doesn’t need him to start right away. He’s got a really good upside, but he doesn’t have that many starting reps under his belt … But the Steelers are going to need him to be ready to play in Week 1 if Broderick Jones doesn’t come back from his neck injury. 

The late-ish round tackles are Josh Conerly, Tyler Guyton, Anton Harrison, Tyler Smith, Christian Darrisaw, Isaiah Wilson, Andre Dillard, Isaiah Wynn, and Garett Bolles.

The bar for these late first-round tackles isn’t particularly high (thank you, Isaiah Wilson). That’s a good thing for Iheanachor and a bad thing for Pittsburgh. 

In a perfect world, one of the other guys on the depth chart starts the season and does a good job, then Iheanachor gets the starting job after their Week 9 bye.

No. 22 Akheem Mesidor, DE, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers used a first-round draft pick to get a 25-year-old … which is certainly a decision. On one hand, that means that he should be ready to play because he spent six years in college weight rooms. But on the other hand, that means he’s going to be 30 years old by the time his fifth-year option comes into play.

Regardless, we’re going to be comparing him to other Defensive Ends who were 25 years old when they got drafted in the first round. That means that you have to go aaaalllllllllll the way back to 1972 when the Lions drafted a fella by the name of Herb Orvis.

So … We’ll also skip Mesidor because his situation is just about as unprecedented as you could imagine. 

No. 23 Malachi Lawrence, DE, Dallas Cowboys

Compared to the Mesidor benchmark, Malachi Lawrence’s is significantly easier: Defensive ends drafted in the 20s. That’s James Pearce Jr., Chop Robinson, Myles Murphy, George Karlaftis, Payton Turner, Montez Sweat, and Taco Charlton.

The Cowboys desperately need Lawrence to get these numbers. Their pass rush turned to ash after they traded Micah Parsons last year … which was before the season started, hence their hilariously and historically bad defense.

For reference, their sack leaders last season were Jadeveon Clowney with 8.5  and James Houston with 5.5. By the way, Clowney isn’t on the team anymore. 

No. 24 KC Concepcion, WR, Cleveland Browns

We’re going to put KC Concepcion in the same book as Makai Lemon because the Browns already have Jerry Jeudy. We are going to narrow it a little bit because the Browns also have a terrible quarterback situation. That means it’s just Jahan Dotson and Will Fuller.

For the Browns, the 2026 season is about developing the talent around the quarterback, so they’ll be rocking when they get a new one in 2027.

It’s the Browns, so that won’t happen for some reason or another … but Concepcion’s got the juice to crush this goal and set a new benchmark for rookie wide receivers with terrible quarterbacks. 

No. 25 Dillon Thieneman, S, Chicago Bears

For a litany of reasons, the NFL is bad at evaluating safeties as prospects. It's pretty rare to see one drafted in the first round, let alone two. Fortunately for Dillon Thieneman, that means the bar is relatively low … Unfortunately, that also means that guys like him have not lived up to their draft spot.

We’re talking about Daxton Hill, Johnathan Abram, Terrell Edmunds, and Malik Hooker. 

The Bears need Thieneman to work, and he’s in a weird spot because a season where he plays 67% of the snaps and misses 12.7% of his tackles would probably be considered a total failure … even if it’s just average for guys in his situation. 

No. 26 Keylan Rutledge, G, Houston Texans

Keylan Rutledge is going to be a significant part of the Texans’ offensive line. Is that going to be at center or guard? Time will tell. Is that going to be significantly good or significantly bad? Time will tell, but hopefully the former. 

As far as other late first-round guards/centers go, we’re looking at Graham Barton, Cole Strange, and Joshua Garnett. That’s not a huge sample of dudes.

The Texans have a little bit of depth on the offensive line, and you would hope that those guys are better than a bad rookie. So if Rutledge can be on the field and meet (or beat) this goal, both he and the Texans are going to be in a good spot. 

No. 27 Chris Johnson, CB, Miami Dolphins

There’s nothing inherently exciting about drafting a cornerback late in the first round, but it happens an awful lot. There’s Maxwell Hairston, Nate Wiggins, Deonte Banks, Kaiir Elam, Greg Newsome, Noah Igbinoghene, DeAndre Baker, Mike Hughes, Tre’Davious White, and Artie Burns. Luckily for Chris Johnson, that means the bar isn’t nearly as high as it is for Mansoor Delane. 

The good thing about having this many guys to set the bar is that if Johnson can be above average, it’s going to be a good test on whether or not he’ll be a long-term real deal for the Dolphins. If not? Eh, it's the Dolphins' secondary … They’re a handful of years away from being ready to compete. 

No. 28 Caleb Lomu, OT, New England Patriots

The Patriots drafted tackles with their first-round picks two years in a row. It was Will Campbell in 2025, and it was Caleb Lomu in 2026. It sounds like the plan is for him to be a swing tackle this season and develop. That means that we’re not going to compare him to anyone because it's just fruitless. 

A successful season for him is that he won’t be buried on the depth chart. He needs to be the sixth offensive lineman if they run heavy personnel, and he needs to be the swing tackle when they need him. It’s all about him being the next man up and not the guy you forgot about. 

No. 29 Peter Woods, DT, Kansas City Chiefs

Peter Woods was the best all-around defensive tackle prospect in the 2026 draft class. Some guys were better against the run, and some were better against the pass; Woods is really good at both … but he’s a (relatively) small fella. Regardless, we’re going to compare him to the last defensive tackles drafted in the first round, but only if they were drafted in the bottom quarter of the first round.

That’s Tyleik Williams, Darius Robinson, Bryan Bresee, Devonte Wyatt, Jerry Tillery, Taven Bryan, Vernon Butler

That’s not exactly the who’s who of players, which should certainly help make Woods look good in comparison. But the Chiefs are going to need a lot more from him. Their defensive line was super mediocre last year and never really threatened offenses. 

Chris Jones can do a lot, but not everything. A good rookie season from Woods might end up being pretty important to that whole thing jiving and thriving again. 

No. 30 Omar Cooper Jr., WR, New York Jets

Omar Cooper Jr. and KC Concepcion are in the same boat; They’re coming onto a team that already has an established WR1, and they also are in quarterback hell. That means we’re looking at Jahan Dotson and Will Fuller again.

Omar Cooper Jr. should be the second banana with the Jets in 2026. Garrett Wilson has been the WR1 on that team, and unless anything changes, he should stay the WR1.

But with Geno Smith as a quarterback? And then you’re asking him to target a WR2 77 times? That seems like a big ask …  even if Smith is a little bit better than he was in 2025. 

However, if Cooper can hit these numbers and develop on that offense, vibes are going to skyrocket around the Jets this time next year. 

No. 31 Keldric Faulk, DE, Tennessee Titans

The last few months in Titans-world have been all about getting Robert Saleh’s fingerprints on the defense. Trading back into the first round to get a mammoth, play-anywhere-on-the-line guy like Keldric Faulk is exactly what you would think he would do. 

When we’re looking for guys in Faulk’s situation, we’re looking at the last defensive ends drafted in the first round, but only if they’re a late-round pick. That’s James Pearce Jr., Felix Anudike-Uzomah, George Karlaftis, Odafe Oweh, L.J. Collier, T.J. Watt, 

A five-sack season from the 30th overall pick and your second first-round pick would be spectacular. Then you add in the part where he’s going to be playing with Jeffrey Simmons, and it really seems like that number should be a floor rather than a goal. 

No. 32 Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks

We could set Jadarian Price’s goal as the last running back drafted in the first round, but we’re going to set it as the second running back drafted in the first round, and only if they were drafted in the second half of that first round. 

Those guys are Omarion Hampton, Travis Etienne, and Rashaad Penny … Also, these are stats from Etienne’s second season because he missed his entire rookie season.  

The Seahawks are going to need a lot more out of Price than that. Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in January, so it's going to be Price splitting time with Emmanuel Wilson and George Holani. 

700 yards and four touchdowns from Price might be good for where he was drafted, but that team is going to be hurting if that’s all they get from him. 

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