Months of conversations with NFL executives and scouts and decision-makers and agents has come down to this: NFL Draft Week.
All those hours of chatter about players and fit and team tendencies and needs and carrying attributes amounts to one crack to try to come close to solving the ultimate NFL riddle. And you do it all knowing so much of this just isn’t going to play out the way anyone thought, because that’s the very nature of the draft.
And this one is definitely different. It's short on blue-chip players, bereft of defensive tackles that truly get people excited and quite short on first-day quarterback talent. Thank goodness Fernando Mendoza pulled the impossible with Indiana, or some in the media would be trying to turn Ty Simpson (Alabama) into a top-10 pick and not just a day-one guy. Overall, I think it could get kooky.
Inside Jason’s draft day expectations
- One team makes multiple trades in the top 10
- A big run on offensive linemen at the top and bottom of the round (and way over the 7.5 sportsbooks are projecting in the top 32)
- An Ohio State prospect slides
- A team trades into the back end of Round 1 for a skill player (not a QB)
For what it’s worth, nothing I’ve cobbled together would shock the multiple general managers and evaluators I’ve been tapping into for years, and we’ve put together some decent mocks in the past. Enjoy the draft!
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Nothing to see here. Let’s see if Tom Brady can mentor him.
2. New York Jets: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
This could be one of a number of defensive players, but we’ll throw a dart in this direction.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami
Since they’re tanking for a QB in the 2027 Draft, they need to build up a perpetually bad OL over multiple offseasons. Could be a certain RB here, too.
4. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State
Robert Saleh will live and die with his D, and he had no pass rushers in San Francisco last year. He badly needs them now in Nashville.
5. New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
Trading Dexter Lawrence for the 10th overall pick doesn’t change anything for us. This chess piece is the “Kyle Hamilton” of John Harbaugh’s new defense.
TRADE: 6. Washington Commanders (from Browns): Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
There will be teams interested in some offensive players if the board goes this way. Pairing Love with Jayden Daniels is exactly what Washington needs.
TRADE: 7. Kansas City Chiefs (from Browns): Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
Andy Reid never picks this high, and he’s rarely needed a starting tackle more. A large Utah guy makes sure he gets an even larger Utah guy.
8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain, Jr., DL, Miami
The arm length stuff is overblown. Cam Jordan is finally gone, and this defender can win inside and on the edge. Hunt match-ups with him.
9. Cleveland Browns: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
Head coach Todd Monken was with Freeling at Georgia. He's a late bloomer, but several GMs told me they think he could be the best LT in the draft in a year or two. Browns have time.
10. New York Giants: Vega Ioane, G, Penn State
New York didn’t do as much to address the OL as I expected. Yeah, they need a corner, but Jaxson Dart needs protection ASAP. This mountain next to Andrew Thomas would be legit.
11. Miami Dolphins: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
New Fins GM came from Green Bay, where they took a lot of heat from Aaron Rodgers about not taking a wide receiver in the first round. Also, I could totally see them going OL here.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
It seems crazy no DB has gone yet, and it might prove to be crazy. Dallas needs help at every level of defense.
13. Los Angeles Rams: Makai Lemon, WR, USC
Perfect fit with the ability to dominate in the slot, win with YAC and also block his backside off. Scouts told me that he was born to play for Sean McVay and is right under their nose.
14. Baltimore Ravens: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
He could play guard for a year, or they may need him to replace Ronnie Stanley, with a massive injury history, much sooner. The Ravens love this program, and this kid has top-five potential.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
The Bucs defense got old and slipped big time. Meanwhile, McCoy had a great workout coming off an ACL tear and fits good here. I feel a run of defensive backs coming on...
16. New York Jets: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
I have a feeling the less-than-ideal 40 time will work against Tate some. The Jets could form quite an interesting Buckeyes receiver tandem with him and Garrett Wilson.
17. Detroit Lions: Caleb Lomu, OL, Utah
So the top-tier of offensive linemen are picked through, and the Lions are wild cards who haven’t had need factor into these selections much. So wouldn’t the ultimate zig-zag be to fudge it a little now for a glaring need at OL with Caleb Lomu? Man could they go safety too though …
18. Minnesota Vikings: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
Everyone is mocking this for a reason. It’s a perfect fit to replace Harrison Smith. Just not sure he’s going to be there.
19. Carolina Panthers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
Freak athlete who might be able to truly unlock their downfield passing game. It's a huge year for Bryce Young, and this owner wants that first overall pick to succeed.
20. Dallas Cowboys: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Perhaps more a box safety than ultimate chess piece, but Downs is a guy some thought Jerry Jones might move up to select at one point, or take at 12.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
If you are stuck with grumpy-ass Aaron Rodgers as your QB at the very end of his career, best get all the size and speed guys you can.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Emmanuel Pregnon, G, Oregon
Interior OL is a massive concern to the run game and pass protection for the Chargers. Pregnon has longer arms than some other options and real explosion to get to multiple levels.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
Eagles need to reload their pass rush some, and it would be just like Howie Roseman to have Faulk fall into his lap.
24. Cleveland Browns: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
This is a hybrid prospect who would be up their alley. The Browns need help everywhere, and they could see Emmanuel McNeil-Warren as getting two players in one.
25. Chicago Bears: Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
Even Ben Johnson can only scheme so much up. The tackle situation is untenable, and it’s not like there are great options on the street (though there are some options).
26. Buffalo Bills: TJ Parker, EDGE, Clemson
There are options at wide receiver, but the chance to get into what remains of the first-round passing tier carries the day.
27. San Franciso 49ers: Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
For all the talk of their pathetic pass rush one year ago, the 49ers are getting some healthy bodies back there. Not enough is made of the plight of their secondary in a division with two bonkers-deep passing games.
28. Houston Texans: Chase Bisontis, OL, Texas A&M
I am all in on teams defaulting to OL in a suspect draft, and I expect double digits to go. The Texans have a terrible line, though some pass rush options would surely merit consideration here too.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami
The fact that he’s already 25 years old gets glossed over some, but especially for someone playing in the trenches, it’s a factor. Chiefs need pass rush help, and this is value.
30. Miami Dolphins: Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson
Terrell lacks true ideal size, but he can be a demon in the slot and has sticky coverage ability. His brother is a Pro Bowler, which doesn’t hurt.
TRADE: 31. Baltimore Ravens (from Patriots): Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt
Who cares about blocking or whether or not he’s really a tight end? Ravens sitting on 11 picks and with a desperate need for more spry deep targets for Lamar make it happen. (It's out of character for them, but they did offer two ones for Maxx Crosby, so times are changing.)
32. Seattle Seahawks: Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
Price didn’t get beat up as much in college as Love, and he fills one of few immediate voids on this roster. Plus, we hear the Hawks love him. He could be special catching the ball in their offense. This pick is very likely to be a trade out, but maybe the Seattle will surprise us.
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