NFL Mock Draft 2026: Updated draft order and projected Top 10 picks after Week 16

Whether you believe tanking is real, it does happen naturally for some teams in the NFL. But the flip side of that we're seeing when it comes to the 2026 NFL Draft is the teams that are seemingly finding their footing late in the season, ostensibly hurting their draft position. The New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans caught a dose of that in Week 16, coming up with victories in matchups against fellow struggling teams and, thus, moving down the 2026 draft order.

That's not the case for every team projected to pick into the Top 10, of course. The New York Giants and Cleveland Browns kept at their losing ways, as did the New York Jets. And on top of that, teams outside the Top 10 like the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys are right on the bubble and could find their way inside before the end of the regular season. But for now, let's check in on the updated draft order, but also how we project the Top 10 picks will play out — and a trade that feels near certain to be made already — in a quick NFL Mock Draft for 2026.

Updated 2026 NFL Draft order after Week 16

1. New York Giants (2-13)
2. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
3. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
4. New York Jets (3-12)
5. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
6. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
7. Washington Commanders (4-11)
8. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
10. Los Angeles Rams (via ATL (5-9))
11. Miami Dolphins (6-9)
12. Kansas City Chiefs (6-9)
13. Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1)
14. Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
16. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
17. Detroit Lions (8-6)
18. New York Jets (via IND (8-6))
19. Carolina Panthers (9-7)
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
21. Dallas Cowboys (via GB (9-5-1))
22. Houston Texans (9-5)
23. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
24. Cleveland Browns (via JAX (10-4))
25. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
26. Buffalo Bills (11-4)
27. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
28. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
29. Chicago Bears (11-4)
30. New England Patriots (11-3)
31. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
32. Denver Broncos (12-2)

There isn't any change, at least yet, in terms of which teams are picking inside the Top 10 of the 2026 NFL Draft, though there is some shuffling. The Titans are now picking fifth after beating the Chiefs on Sunday in Week 16, while the Saints have fallen to the No. 8 pick, just ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals, who also won on Sunday — and pushed the Miami Dolphins even closer to another Top 10 pick in doing so.

But the Dolphins, Chiefs and Cowboys are perhaps the most fascinating teams outside of the Top 10 picks. These teams have gone through the wringer this season, though in a variety of different ways from one another. However, it's also not hard to imagine a potential bounce-back next season, and if they were able to add a Top 10 draft talent to the roster, that would only further belief that they can make something happen after a down season.

NFL Mock Draft 2026: Projecting the current Top 10 picks

Jets trade up with Giants for Dante Moore over Mendoza

With the current draft order, the Jets are in danger of not getting a quarterback. Not only are the Raiders and Browns both conceivably in position to take a new signal-caller — though Cleveland's decision depends on the in-house feeling about Shedeur Sanders — but the Giants having Jaxson Dart puts them open for business to trade down. The Jets have an excessive amount of draft capital, though, after trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the deadline, so they have no problem finding the capital to strike a deal and move up to No. 1.

Personally, I still have Fernando Mendoza as QB1 in the 2026 draft class. But Dante Moore out of Oregon is hot on his heels in terms of draft stock. More importantly, the Ducks quarterback is a more impressive physical specimen as a prospect. Eventually as we go through the process, I can see that being the deciding factor between him and Mendoza, and the Jets will take the bait after trading up. The upside is higher with Moore, but with his general lack of experience in comparison to Mendoza, so is the risk.

Raiders turn the page with Heisman-winner Fernando Mendoza

It might feel hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel if you're a Raiders fan right now, but if they end up with the No. 2 overall pick and Mendoza still on the board, there's reason to feel hopeful about what the future could hold in Las Vegas.

When the Raiders traded for Geno Smith, though, the hope was to find some steadiness at quarterback. That hasn't happen, nor has the rest of the roster or Pete Carroll proven to be up to the task either. There is still a chance that Carroll is let go as head coach, too, but the biggest factor would be getting Mendoza into the fold because of what he provides as a prospect.

Mendoza reminds me of a more athletic iteration of prime Kirk Cousins. He has a plus arm, even if it's not elite, but is an exceptionally smart passer and decision-maker who can also use his legs a bit. That feels like the right type of reset for the Raiders, especially considering a lot of that is what they'd initially hoped Smith could be for the Silver and Black.

Browns, Giants (after trade down) land elite WR talents

Though it's impossible to say precisely what the Browns are going to do when it comes to Shedeur and the quarterback position, they get boxed out in this mock draft projection. But that gives Cleveland the opportunity to give Sander more of a chance to prove himself as they take Jordyn Tyson out of Arizona State.

The ASU product is still my top wide receiver in this class. He's a nicely built big-ish body on the outside who displays fantastic footwork but also explosiveness on the outside as well. The Browns' weapons are lacking in a big way, so getting a true No. 1 to replace the ghost of Jerry Jeudy seems quite wise on Cleveland's part, especially if they want to adequately evaluate Shedeur.

Following Cleveland's pick, though, the Giants should be happy to get WR1B after trading down with Carnell Tate on the board. The X-receiver prototype would be a ton of fun to pair with Malik Nabers to help further develop Jaxson Dart as the hopeful franchise quarterback. While there are other needs in New York, it's been painfully clear how bad their young signal-caller needs the exact help that Tate could provide around him.

Titans, Commanders and Saints all upgrade with studs on the edge

After Moore, Mendoza, Tyson and Tate going off the board, three of the next four picks in this mock draft are edge rushers. While Arvell Reese has surpassed Rueben Bain Jr. on most big boards, I suspect that will change because of his somewhat position-less nature as a hybrid player. And with Bain showing out in the College Football Playoff already for Miami, the Titans would still be thrilled to add him to the mix for a defense that simply in dire need of any type of playmaker, especially at a premium position.

While Reese may get leapt by Bain in the draft, he won't fall too far. He's even more of an ideal fit for Washington, who simply needs youth and juice. Reese has the ability to come off the edge or stand up at linebacker, which is something that some evaluators may end up holding against him. I'm a believer in the value of that, though, especially with his unique frame and athleticism to potentially do both at a high level. Pairing him with Dan Quinn on the Commanders when the defense needs a shot in the arm makes too much sense.

That leaves Texas Tech's David Bailey to fall to the Saints, which is just perfect. New Orleans is another team with an aging defense, but Tyler Shough is continuing to impress late in the season. If the Saints are confident in the offense, getting an edge rusher who can create havoc consistently as Cam Jordan nears the end of his career would be a perfect way to add another young cornerstone.

Cardinals have their pick on the O-line

Because of the run on edge rushers, Arizona is going to be sitting there in the middle of this with their pick of the litter on the offensive line. That could be a gift and a curse, as there is a stark lack of consensus on this offensive line class right now, but it does allow the Cardinals to not have the decision be made for them should things play out as they do in this mock draft projection.

For me, Francis Mauigoa is the surest option for the Cardinals specifically. While quarterback is a bit in-flux for Arizona moving forward, they need to build from the trenches out a bit better. Someone like Trevor Goosby might have more upside, while Kadyn Proctor might be a more impressive physical talent. But the Miami product has plenty of size and is simply the steadier option. That's what the Cards need at this point in their roster building, and while it might not be sexy, the results might be eventually depending on what changes are made at QB.

Bengals and Rams round out Top 10 by addressing the secondary

The Bengals move down in the draft order with another win, but they're also quite clearly in a position to take the best defensive player available. They'd love for one of the edge rushers to fall with the uncertain future of Trey Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart's shaky rookie campaign, but they should also be more than happy with Caleb Downs.

Downs would be a Top 3-5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft if he didn't play at such a non-premium position. His versatility in the secondary as well as his value as a returner make him an immediately useful piece for any NFL defense, and the Bengals are simply in need of anyone who can make an impact positively on that side of the ball.

That leaves us with the Rams, courtesy of the Falcons, to round out the Top 10. There has been plenty of speculation about potentially taking a quarterback with this selection, but I believe they'd trade down if that were the case. Instead, they rebuild the secondary with Mansoor Delane, who starred for an LSU defense that got lost in the shuffle of all of the drama in Baton Rouge this season. He'd be an immediate starter outside for this LA defense, without question.