As the NFL's regular season dies down to a close, what was once one of the widest MVP fields has largely shrunk down to just two names. Only Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford remain, and both are strong candidates.
Some have argued that Stafford's three-interception performance on Monday Night Football against Atlanta already decided the NFL MVP race. Of course, there are still plenty of people that believe that the Rams' signal-caller is the more deserving candidate. And no doubt, both quarterbacks have a case to make. However, there's one stat that might give Maye the advantage, one that many fans might not expect.
Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have both played at MVP levels
Maye is the upstart whose meteoric rise coincided with what suddenly looks to be an early end for Buffalo dominance in the AFC East. Maye's captaincy of the Patriots mixed with the deceleration of Josh Allen's Bills has been one of the biggest storylines in football, and outside of that, New England's new hero has just been lighting it up (4,203 yards, 262.7 yards/game, 30 touchdowns, 71.7% CMP through 16 games).
In fact, Maye's completion percentage, quarterback rating, and depth of target all lead the league, and most of his other counting stats are near the top of the field as well.
Stafford has been slinging it himself, to the tune of 42 touchdowns over 16 games, 12 more than the runner-up. He's also right there with Maye at the top of the leaderboard in most counting stats, and actually outpaces the sophomore in passing yards per game (278) and touchdown percentage (7.5%). And on top of that, Stafford's own narrative sets him apart. Who would have thought a quarterback nearing the age of 40 with his pre-season back issues could lead a team, even as high-powered as the Rams, to the top of the NFC for multiple weeks, and in the toughest division in the league, no less?
Two equally compelling narratives and arguments. The question is how to differentiate them. Is there anything that could set either of these quarterbacks apart from the other?
The key stat that could determine the MVP race
Strength of schedule has largely been the Achilles' hell to Maye's MVP case. Based on preseason rankings, theirs was actually the second-weakest in the league, ahead of only San Francisco. In fact, they didn't match up a truly playoff-worthy side until the Bills in Week 5, and then against the Bills once more in Week 15 (no, the early-season Panthers and late-season Bengals don't count).
That relative strength of schedule is the only true coolant on Maye's MVP case, the only thing that kept the media at bay after Matthew Stafford and the Rams fell to the Seahawks in Week 16, narrow as it was.
However, as of Week 17, Stafford and Maye have faced the same opponent six times. And in those matchups, while both certainly produced at comparable levels, Stafford's mistakes sting like an arrow in the knee. Two losses to Maye's none, six interception to Maye's three, and a 14-13 touchdown advantage much more narrow than his season-long touchdown total gap would imply.
Moreover, one of those losses came at the damning hands of the Atlanta Falcons, who existed in Week 17 only for pride and the opportunity to play spoiler. As close as they made it, Atlanta still held Stafford and the Rams scoreless for an entire half.
Not only does that loss (and the mistake-filled performance Stafford put up against Carolina) damn the Rams' MVP hopeful, but in a direct matchup, potentially lifts Maye up past the one flaw in his case. Time will tell if voters will take the losses, and their respective stats into account, but all that matters is that a difference has been laid bare between the two, a hitch in the tug-of-war between the top NFL's top MVP candidates. And it just might make all the difference.