NFL Week 13 picks and predictions, straight-up and ATS: Feasting on Thanksgiving games

NFL Week 13 means many things. The playoffs are just on the horizon and teams are gearing up for their pushes, while others are thinking quite a bit about the draft in six months. But it also means that we've arrived at the Thanksgiving Day games. The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys will occupy their seminal roles for the American holiday while we feast on turkey and whatever your favorite side dish is (stuffing with gravy remains undefeated). But let's hope we're also feasting with our NFL picks and predictions for the week.

It was a strong week for our NFL picks, at least straight-up, but we did get some mildly positive momentum against the spread as well. The Thanksgiving games and some of the slate — shouts to the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams getting soft matchups that feel like gifts — should offer opportunity to keep getting on the right track. With that, let's dive into our NFL picks and predictions for Week 13, making our calls for every game this week and with no teams on bye.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

NFL Week 13 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 107-71 (Last Week: 10-4 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 80-97-1 (Last Week: 7-7 | 2024 record 147-118-1)

Not only do we have the Thanksgiving trifecta of games, but don't forget we actually also get one of the best matchups of the week with the Bears taking on the Eagles for a Black Friday matchup. That should provide some good entertainment while you're heating up leftovers and have shopped to your heart's desire.

There's more beyond the holiday to have us intrigued, though. Texans-Colts feels like a battle for the AFC South with two teams that are swinging in momentum, Bills-Steelers has two teams trying to save their seasons, and that's before you get into matchups like Giants-Patriots or 49ers-Browns that simply feel like they could be trickier for the favorites than they should be.

Toughest NFL Week 13 prediction to make

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Frankly, I don't see how anyone could trust either of these teams. The uncertainty about Aaron Rodgers' availability for this game aside, you have a Steelers team with more points of evidence that the defense is just not the same anymore than to the contrary, and with an offense that is better than expected, but still short of great. But for the Bills, the defense has also been a bit of a disaster while the offense certainly isn't clicking on the same number of cylinders it was early in the season.

For me, though, Buffalo gets the edge, even on the road. Josh Allen should be able to pick this defense apart, especially if the Bills can expect a bit more from James Cook after an extra three days rest following playing on Thursday night last week. Beyond that, when you finally mix in Rodgers' wrist injury into the mix, that's the deciding factor for me.

But again, if you're on either side of this game, you'd have to do a lot of convincing to make me feel good about saying it with my chest — and even then, I still might not get there.

Easiest NFL Week 13 pick on the board

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5)

I tried hard not to just take a shot at J.J. McCarthy when it comes to this game. But in the end, if we're talking about the easiest pick in Week 13, it doesn't get any easier than a matchup between two teams who look completely on opposite ends of the spectrum.

Close and tough loss to the Rams aside, the Seahawks have been dominant. You can toss in the Sam Darnold revenge game narrative if you want to — and that's certainly in play with how well the Seattle offense has been throwing it — but really, it comes down to the defense. Mike Macdonald has his preferred side of the ball playing dominantly, and now they get to feast on a quarterback in McCarthy who hasn't looked like he belongs in a month.

This feels like a nightmare brewing for the Vikings — the red lightning from the Upside Down turning navy and fluorescent green. There's no way Minnesota feels good about starting McCarthy with how awful he's been, but they simply don't have another option at this point. And that conundrum isn't going to go well for them on the road in Seattle.

The pick that probably has you scratching your head

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)

Let me be clear, this isn't a Shedeur Sanders pivot to fully investing in him. Hell, I'm still picking the 49ers to win this game outright. At the same time, one of the primary reasons why the Browns were able to dominate the Raiders so emphatically with Shedeur starts with the defense, which continues to be legitimately one of the best in the NFL. And that's where this matchup with San Francisco could take a turn.

While the Niners dominated the Panthers on Monday night this past week, that wasn't thanks much to their offense. Brock Purdy struggled absolutely mightily in that matchup, just not as much as Bryce Young and with Carolina's defense not being nearly the test that Cleveland's will offer in this Week 13 showdown.

Frankly, this game has all the makings of being quite damn ugly. But that favors the Browns ending up keeping this one close and, while it won't get them the win, they can certainly cover on the strength of the defense, the poor play from Purdy, and maybe (just maybe) Sanders doing just enough to not kill Cleveland in his second career start.