The NFL playoff bracket isn't set just yet; we've still got two full weeks of football to play, and very little is set in stone. But a topsy-turvy Week 16 answered a lot of questions, and brought things in both the AFC and NFC into greater focus.
What if the season ended now and the current standings decided the playoff matchups? Well, we'd get to see what playoff newcomers like the Patriots, Jaguars and Bears have in the tank while watching masters of the craft like Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford go to work. And we'd get much needed answers about what the Eagles, Seahawks, Chargers and 49ers are actually capable of.
How would the playoffs play out if they started today? Let's have a look.
How the AFC bracket would look if the playoffs started after Week 16
Wild Card round
No. 7 Houston Texans (10-5) vs. No. 2 New England Patriots (11-3)
New England's reward for their dream season? A date with arguably the hottest team in football in the Houston Texans, who won their seventh game in a row on Sunday afternoon.
This Demeco Ryans defense is fierce, fast and physical, and could create a ton of problems for Drake Maye and a Patriots receiver group that doesn't scare anybody vertically. New England will have home-field advantage, and Mike Vrabel isn't to be underestimated in the postseason. But I think this could be a uniquely tough matchup for Maye and Co., while CJ Stroud makes just enough plays to remind everyone of his potential and spring a monumental upset.
No. 6 Buffalo Bills (11-4) vs. No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)
Do you believe in the Jags now? Jacksonville stormed into Mile High and had little trouble moving the ball against a Denver defense that's maybe the best in the entire league. This is almost certainly the best ball Trevor Lawrence has ever played, and that accuracy and anticipation is unlocking the ideal version of Liam Coen's offense.
Of course, drawing the reigning MVP in Josh Allen in your playoff opener is no picnic. But at a certain point, we might just have to admit that this Bills team doesn't have the juice; Buffalo slogged past Cleveland on Sunday, showcasing a lack of playmaking around Allen and James Cook and a hardly overwhelming defense. If the Jags are playing like this, give me Lawrence.
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) vs. No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
The Steelers did it again on Sunday, surviving a truly wild finish in Detroit to secure their third win in a row. The AFC North is almost secured, and Pittsburgh should host at least one home playoff game.
And yet ... I'm still not buying it. The defense is gettable unless the pass rush takes over, and there's a profound lack of explosiveness with this offense that I think will come back to bite it eventually. Jesse Minter should have something cooked up for Rodgers in this one, and I simply trust Justin Herbert to get the better quarterback. Lord help me, I'm willing to get hurt again, especially after how convincingly L.A. won the first matchup between these teams.
Divisional round
No. 7 Houston Texans vs. No. 1 Denver Broncos (12-3)
You'll be able to hear the hitting in this one from outer space. These are the two most physical secondaries in football, which boast maybe the two best cover corners as well. Sean Payton against Demeco Ryans will feed families.
Going into Denver and getting a win is no picnic, especially considering the question marks the Texans have on the offensive line. But I have more faith in Stroud than I do in Bo Nix, and if Houston can avoid making the big mistake, I think they have the goods to win this game. The Texans are going to get up in receivers' chests and make Nix make big-time throws, and I'm skeptical of how that'll go.
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers vs. No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars
A rematch of the 2023 collapse, with a spot in the AFC title game on the line? Yes, please.
This game would go a long way toward redefining the legacies of both Herbert and Lawrence. Give me the Jags here, though: Lawrence is playing out of his mind, and the banged-up Chargers offensive line jumps out to me as the worst unit on the field in this hypothetical matchup. This Jacksonville offense is running red-hot, and the defense does just enough to harass Herbert into a crucial mistake.
Championship round
No. 7 Houston Texans vs. No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars
The AFC South rivals split their two regular-season meetings this year, but that's a bit misleading: Jacksonville jumped out to a 29-10 lead through three quarters, only to allow 26 unanswered points in a shocking fourth-quarter collapse. In a rubber match with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, which team would have the edge?
Lord help me, I'm picking the Jags to make their first Big Game in franchise history. I just have that much respect for the way he's playing right now, and the way Coen is calling games. The introduction of Jakobi Meyers has done wonders for this offense, doing all the intermediate dirty work and allowing Brian Thomas Jr. to slide back into more of a vertical role. They're just very, very hard to stop, and I think their defense does enough against a Texans offense whose personnel I still don't fully trust when the chips are down.
How the NFC bracket would look if the playoffs started after Week 16
Wild Card round
No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) vs. No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-4)
What do you say we just do Saturday's instant classic all over again? The Packers seemed to have this game under control before a botched onside kick and some late Caleb Williams magic, but overall I'm fading this Green Bay team: The Micah Parsons injury has really taken a bite out of this defense, and that's asking a lot of Jordan Love even if he's able to come back from the concussion protocol in full health.
These Bears are likely a year ahead of schedule, but Williams is a genuine baller, and Ben Johnson is going to put this team in a position to succeed. With Soldier Field backing them and the Packers fading, I think that's enough.
No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (10-4) vs. No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)
What a blockbuster matchup this would be, the two most recent NFC champions facing off in the Wild Card round. San Francisco just keeps finding ways to win despite a laundry list of injuries, but I think it finally catches up to them here: This Eagles defense is just playing too well right now, and I find it hard to believe that Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and pure grit will be able to put enough points on the board.
Of course, the Eagles have offensive questions of their own. But the Niners are depleted in their front seven as well, and Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts do enough to grind out a win.
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (11-4) vs. No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-7)
I know, I know, the Panthers are just weeks removed from beating L.A. in Carolina, but come on: Does anyone really think Bryce Young is pulling this off in January? Just about everything had to go wrong for the Rams to fall short in Seattle on Thursday night, and the conmbination of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay will too much for an undermanned Panthers defense. I don't think Young has this in him, and Chris Shula will have a better plan for Tetairoa McMillan this time around.
Divisional round
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (12-3)
Who's up for Round 3? The Seahawks evened the score in a game for the ages on Thursday night, but I still don't trust this team when the chips are down: The defense is excellent, but the running game is too scattershot, and Sam Darnold still can't find a way to avoid making back-breaking mistakes.
Seattle is absolutely good enough to win this game. I just think the Rams have the better, deeper team and the (slightly) better head coach, and a vintage Stafford performance will see them through in a matchup that McVay seems to have gotten figured out.
No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 2 Chicago Bears
The narrative just writes itself, doesn't it: The Bears unexpectedly back in the Divisional round, hosting the same Philly team that broke their hearts in the double doink game the last time they reached this point. Unfortunately for Chicago, I could see something similar playing out this time around as well.
I get all the concerns about the Eagles; heck, I share a lot of them, particularly regarding the offense. And I know that Chicago went into the Linc and emerged with a win not all that long ago. But this Philly defense remains very, very good, and the offense seems to have gotten closer to finding a stable identity of late — and picked up some momentum on the ground with Barkley. The Bears have been punching above their weight all year; eventually, that late-game luck will run out.
Championship round
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams vs. No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles
Why not a rematch of last year's NFC title game? You know that Stafford and the Rams would love to get some revenge for how that one ended in the snow, and I think they get it here. McVay has made real strides against the Vic Fangio system since it embarrassed him in the Super Bowl against the Patriots, and the Rams offense has the versatility to stress this defense.
That will put real pressure on Hurts to make big throws with the game on the line, and I don't trust him to get it done. This Eagles attack remains predictable in ways dictated by its quarterback's limitations, and those limitations will be exposed on the biggets stage.
Super Bowl prediction after Week 16
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (11-4) vs. No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)
Just as we all predicted, of course. In a year in which the AFC has been as wide-open as we've ever seen it, there's some poetic justice to the Jaguars representing the conference in the Super Bowl. But for as much as I respect Jacksonville, there's no way I can pick against the Rams here. Stafford is the better quarterback, McVay is the better coach and Los Angeles also has the better defensive front. In some ways, the Rams are the team to which Coen's Jags aspire, but they're not there quite yet.