I bet you thought the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots were going to be atop the AFC at this point in the season, didn’t you. Neither did I. I also didn’t think that I’d have confidence in them either to set themselves up for a solid run in the NFL playoffs. But here we are and as we get ready for the playoffs in about a month-and-a-half, it’s time to do a temperature check on the contenders in both the AFC and NFC.
We all know that playoff experience goes a long way, and neither the Colts nor the Patriots have that as of late. Doesn’t mean they aren’t built to be good postseason teams, just means they could be on a path to surprising some teams if they stay hot. Here’s where you should feel confidence wise about them and the rest of the playoff contenders in the NFL.
How confident AFC, NFC contenders should feel
AFC Contenders
New England Patriots (10-2)
Drake Maye-nia is in full force on the upper east coast and you have to credit Robert Kraft and Mike Vrabel for turning the once afterthought in the AFC East to the top team in the AFC in a matter of months. You should also feel confident about what they can do this postseason too. Not only are the Patriots beating teams, but they’re seemingly coasting through their schedule and prepared for a Washington Commanders-esque run.
Sure, a lot of people are going to bash the Patriots for a weak schedule, but that’s how bad teams get good — the NFL rewards them with easy opponents as the scheduling is based on the previous year’s division standings.
The fact that the Patriots have already beat the Buffalo Bills on the road, and the Buccaneers, it’s a sign that you have to take this team seriously. If they can beat the Bills again and the Baltimore Ravens — who have miraculously risen to the top of the AFC North with five-straight wins — it makes you wonder if this team is better than just beating on bad opponents.
Confidence index: 8/10
Denver Broncos (9-2)
Against all odds the Denver Broncos are atop the AFC West and a game behind the New England Patriots for the top spot in the AFC. Bo Nix hasn’t had to look great thanks to one of the best defenses in the NFL. Defenses can win you a championship, but you need good quarterback play. This is why I wouldn’t be too high on the Broncos as the second-half of the season picks up.
Nix has completed just 62 percent of his passes this season with 18 touchdowns, eight interceptions and just over 2,400 yards. The Broncos offense has been middling all year, so unless they catch fire at the end of the season, expect their defense to carry them as far as they can go. If Nix doesn’t improve his play, that won’t be very far. Don’t go all in if you’re a Broncos fan. You saw how last season ended, that could be the same fate, depending on who they draw in the first round.
Confidence index: 6/10
Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
Daniel Jones has reincarnated his NFL career and actually looks like the first round pick the New York Giants always wanted him to be this season. He’s not playing elite, but he’s doing everything right. In New York, he tried to do too much and it ultimately got him cut. With the Colts, he’s doing everything they need him to be and now they’re on the cusp of having the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
On top of that, they added more reinforcements on defense, improving their secondary, giving them the well-rounded team needed for a playoff run. They don’t have a team with a lot of playoff experience, but they have a talented team and one that might not need experience to get by. I’m not saying the Colts are about to embark on a generational playoff run, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them catch fire.
I will say, the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers was humbling. The Steelers exposed a big weakness with the Colts in that Jones isn’t going to necessarily win you the game still. Jonathan Taylor has been on point this year, but you still have to have a passing game so if the Colts are reduced to throwing the ball, that could trip them up.
Confidence index: 7/10
Buffalo Bills (7-4)
The Buffalo Bills are looking iffy as of now. They started the year 4-0 and have since cooled off, winning just three of the last seven. Adding Brandin Cooks isn’t going to help this mediocre passing game, but it will give them some options in figuring out how to get the most out of the receiving core. Keon Coleman has been trending in the wrong direction, which is why Buffalo went after Cooks.
Until they can find a way to have a consistent passing game, they won’t be the top team in the AFC. This season, especially with the Kansas City Chiefs in a miserable spot, the Bills were expected to be the team to beat. Now they’re not even atop the division.
Josh Allen is still a freak of nature, so don’t count the Bills out, but the last two months of the season proved the Bills can’t be as trusted. I wouldn’t go all in on the Bills to reach the Super Bowl. If there was any year, this is the one, but even when it should be a clear path, they still look like a team that just doesn’t have it fully together for a deep playoff run. I could be wrong and you could argue their playoff experience will be key for them, but I’m just not seeing this Bills team as a championship contender.
Confidence index: 6.5/10
Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
A month ago, the Ravens looked like they were about to throw the towel in, fire John Harbaugh and head toward a dreadful offseason. Now they’re atop the decrepit AFC North and in control of their playoff destiny. I’m not sure if this is a team you should still be scared of or a team that’s hot and will soon fizzle out. Either way, this Ravens team isn’t one you should have a lot of faith in.
Like the Buffalo Bills, the Ravens’ playoff success has been halted before the AFC Championship Game every year except for the 2023 season, they’ve made the playoffs with Lamar Jackson. This year they were supposed to finally get to the Super Bowl and now they’re fighting for a playoff spot. They might be on a five-game win streak, but there’s nothing about this Ravens team that makes you think this is their year.
Confidence index: 5/10
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be Pittsburgh’s savior and now they’re waiting for him to come back from an injury. This season hasn’t looked anything like Steelers fans would have hoped and with Rodgers’ availability in question, it could get worse. The Steelers have lost four of the last six games and look very much like a team that’s about to collapse.
I didn’t trust them when the season started and I definitely don’t trust them now that things are spiraling out of control. Maybe they can turn things around, but I doubt that happens. Now that they don’t have control over the division lead anymore, it could mean their playoff hopes are on its last lifeline, too.
Confidence index: 4/10
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)
If there is such a thing as a dangerous 6-5 team, it’s got to be the Kansas City Chiefs. As long as Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback of the Chiefs, I’ll always keep a close eye on them, even amidst their worst season since he took over as starting quarterback. This Chiefs team finally looks beatable and it’s largely because the offense just can’t get it done.
It doesn’t help that Isiah Pacheco has been out most of the season and their run game has taken a hit. That said, if the Chiefs find a way to sneak into the playoffs, they just might go on a tear through the field to get back to the Super Bowl. It’s not likely, but I still have confidence that the Chiefs can be dangerous with the right matchups.
Confidence index: 6.5/10
NFC contenders
Los Angeles Rams (9-2)
The Los Angeles Rams might win a Super Bowl this year. Matthew Stafford is well on his way to an MVP award and the Rams look like a team that might not lose the rest of the season. They sit atop the NFC standings — and that’s because their defense is elite, and their quarterback is playing at an unreal level.
Stafford leads the NFL with 30 passing touchdowns, he has just two interceptions and 2,830 passing yards. The Rams are playing their best right now, and there’s no reason why you shouldn’t feel comfortable with them running the gamut.
Confidence index: 9/10
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
The Eagles have finally reinvigorated their passing game, meaning they look like a real threat. Jalen Hurts is still a running threat, but opening up the passing game is what is going to make them a problem. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rams and the Eagles meet in the NFC championship game.
I don’t know if the Eagles are going to defend their Super Bowl title, but they should be set for a good showing in the playoffs. The NFC is tough, but they shouldn’t see the toughest teams until the second round at the earliest. The only dangerous team in the field that could stump the Eagles in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Either way, the Eagles are leading the NFC East for a reason.
Confidence index: 8/10
Chicago Bears (8-3)
The Bears are the Bears and you can never be too confident. They could go on a crazy run or they could lose a game they have no business losing in the first round. This new version of the Bears looks confident and ready to change their trajectory, but all good things come to an end. The Bears strong run could come to an end and if it does, it will feel like the same old Bears.
Caleb Williams has finally come into his own with Ben Johnson’s system and now the Bears look like real contenders. If they can string along a couple of playoff wins, they just might prove me wrong, but I just don’t see them putting it all together this year. They’re probably a year or so away from being real threats in the NFC.
Confidence index: 5/10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
Tampa Bay has fallen off after a strong start to the season, which could foreshadow their playoff future. The Buccaneers, despite reaching the playoffs each of the last four seasons since Tom Brady led them to a Super Bowl, have just two playoff wins in that span and Baker Mayfield has just one. Getting to the playoffs is the problem for the Buccaneers, it’s winning in the postseason and that’s why I would still feel uneasy.
Coupled with some of the injury problems — Mayfield labrum injury at the forefront — I wouldn’t feel too confident going into the rest of the season. I’m not saying all is lost, but I don’t like their chances against the Eagles, Rams, Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.
Confidence index: 4/10
Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
Seattle is a wild card. They’ve proven they can win but their three losses are to potential playoff teams, which means they might struggle against the better teams. The NFC playoff race is crowded and there’s a thin margin of error. Every team minus the Buccaneers and the Lions have at least seven wins and five of them have at least eight.
Sam Darnold’s reformation has carried over into this season, which is great for Seattle, but you also have to remember how last season ended for Darnold. The Vikings lost the last two games, the final being a playoff game, to end a 14-win season in the wildcard. Darnold has proven he can win in the regular season, but he hasn’t won in the playoffs. I’m not so sure he proves it this year with the field in front of him.
Confidence index: 6/10
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)
The Green Bay Packers have had an odd season where they are strong and leading the NFC North division, but just don’t feel as dominant at their record. Their defense hasn’t been the problem at all. A lot of their inconsistencies have come on the offensive side of the ball and with the amount of pressure on Jordan Love to get it done this year, I just don’t feel confident in him playing well against the top teams in the NFC.
The NFC is loaded this year and to get through the gauntlet of teams and land in the Super Bowl, consistency is key. The Packers don’t have that right now and if they don’t get it, they won’t fare well in the postseason.
Confidence index: 5.5/10
Detroit Lions (6-4)
How things go during the Thanksgiving Day game will determine if the Detroit Lions are ready to get back to the NFC championship game. They’ve faltered over the last month-and-a-half, going 3-3 over the last six games, losing the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles. While those losses aren’t necessarily bad, save for the Vikings one, it’s not a good sign losing to good teams.
The Lions had the best record in the NFL last year and lost in the Divisional round so maybe being the underdog is better for them. Outside of the spotlight, they might just play better. That said, I don’t think this is the year they run the NFC. They had a transition year, losing their top two coordinators, so this was always going to be an interesting season. They’re still competitive, I just don’t know if they’re ready for playoff dominance just yet.
Confidence index: 5/10
San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
The 49ers are an interesting team because they’re good and I think they can make some noise in the playoffs. I just don’t know if I think they’re good enough to beat the top teams in the playoff race, let alone the ones in their division. The Seattle Seahawks have been playing at an elite level just like the Los Angeles Rams.
Losing Fred Warner was a big hit to this defense and they’ve found a way to still stay afloat. Unless the 49ers come back to win the division, I wouldn’t be too sure they’re going to return to the Super Bowl. There’s a chance they make a late season push and that builds momentum, but it’s more likely the Seahawks or Rams finish the year better than them, which only makes a playoff run that much harder.