Week 11 didn’t solve much in the NFL playoff race, but it certainly reshaped it. After a 1–5 start, the Baltimore Ravens have clawed themselves back into the AFC North hunt. Despite facing a rugged Browns' defense that harassed Lamar Jackson all afternoon, a key trick play helped the Ravens come out on top and earn their fourth straight win.
Things aren't going quite as well in Kansas City, with the Chiefs currently outside the playoff picture. In Detroit, the Lions are in a pickle as well. With the standings tightening and several contenders trending in opposite directions, here’s how Week 11 reshaped the NFL playoff picture and which teams are rising, slipping or in real trouble heading into Week 12.
The Ravens are suddenly back in the AFC playoff picture
The Ravens were emphatic during their 1-5 start that they still had a chance to turn their season around, and they have backed up those words with strong play. A return to health for many key players has sparked Baltimore's turnaround, getting them back to .500 and one game back of the slumping Pittsburgh Steelers in the division.
Having four division games left provides the Ravens a huge runway to get back into the postseason, with their next four games (hosting the Jets, two games with Cincinnati and the first Steelers' matchup) offering a good runway to keep their momentum going. Sweeping all four would improbably have Baltimore at 9-5 and in control of the division by Week 16, which is a credit to the players in the room for not giving up when the going got tough.
Dallas’ defensive overhaul gives the Cowboys new life in the NFC
Jerry Jones made heavy investments in Dallas' defense at the trade deadline, surrendering multiple high draft picks to get Quinnen Williams from the Jets and sending another late round pick to Cincinnati for Logan Wilson. Those additions, along with a return to health for several secondary pieces, made the much-maligned Cowboys' defense look brilliant in a stifling win against the Raiders on Monday night.
Williams made an immediate impact in his Cowboys' debut, racking up 1.5 sacks and helping stuff the run. Geno Smith was sacked four times and threw a pick in the contest, offering some hope that the new faces can provide enough support to help Dallas' elite offense make a postseason push in the NFC despite a 4-5-1 mark through 10 games.
Houston is quietly climbing into Wild Card position
Another AFC team that was left for dead after an 0-3 start, Houston has quietly gone 5-2 since to climb back into the wild card hunt. Defense has been the name of the game for the Texans, whose elite unit has smothered opposing offenses and helped them earn key victories against Jacksonville, San Francisco and Baltimore to bolster their postseason hopes.
While the Texans are still awaiting C.J. Stroud's return from a concussion, they are getting enough playmaking from Davis Mills to stay afloat and host a Buffalo team whose defense has been shredded of late on Thursday night. Stealing that game would allow Houston to get above .500 with two matchups remaining against the Colts and another against Jacksonville, offering a path to the playoffs that appeared non-existent a month ago.
The 2024 QB class is shaping the Playoff race more than anyone expected
While Jayden Daniels made headlines last year for leading an impressive turnaround for the Commanders, the 2024 quarterback class has stepped up in a big way this year with three of its first-round picks (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Bo Nix) carrying their teams to division leads. Their emergence has reshaped the playoff picture, with each leading surprise division races.
Nix and Maye are dueling for the top seed in the AFC, with Maye inserting himself into the MVP race thanks to his strong play. Williams' steady improvement has helped Chicago surprisingly gain the top spot in the competitive NFC North.
While J.J. McCarthy is experiencing growing pains in Minnesota and Michael Penix is dealing with more injuries in Atlanta, it looks as if four of the six teams that invested in first-round quarterbacks last year hit on their picks. That success rate has aided team-building efforts, since having a good QB on a rookie contract allows front offices to invest more resources into the rest of the roster and create the path to quickly turn things around in a parity-driven league.
Detroit’s offense is falling apart alongside the Lions’ Playoff hopes
Detroit is slipping out of NFC playoff control. While Campbell drew praise around the league for taking over play calling duties in Week 10, his status as an offensive guru took a hit in Detroit's Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Lions couldn't get anything going in the passing game, with Jared Goff completing only 14-of-37 passes as Philadelphia took away Detroit's vaunted running game, holding them to 74 yards on 21 carries.
The loss dropped Detroit out of the playoff picture for now and they have a tough schedule ahead after this week's get-right game against the Giants, with Green Bay, Dallas, a trip to Los Angeles to face the Rams and Pittsburgh coming up. There are some tough defenses in that stretch and a potentially improved unit in Dallas, so Campbell will need to get deeper into his bag to ensure the Lions generate enough offense to return to the postseason.
New York’s culture woes keep the Giants stuck
The Giants aren’t in the playoff hunt, but the deeper issue is how far the culture has slipped during another lost season. Firing a head coach is a sign that the culture isn't right in New York, and things aren't looking great for the Giants right now. Interim Mike Kafka had to make a statement by benching top pick Abdul Carter after he missed a walk through, with the rookie admitting he deserved the punishment but disputing reports he was asleep in the team facility.
Rookie Cam Skattebo, who is on IR after suffering a season-ending injury, is also coming under fire for taking part in a staged WWE appearance involving physical contact. While the staged nature of pro wrestling meant that Skattebo wasn't at risk of further physical harm, it is definitely a case of bad optics, and the Giants cannot be happy with the distractions at this point.
Kansas City is slipping out of the Playoff picture
Despite being one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, Kansas City has a very good chance to miss the playoffs after an underwhelming 5-5 start to the season. Sunday's loss in Denver dropped the Chiefs to 2-4 in AFC games, with all four of the losses coming to teams above them in the standings, including a head-to-head defeat in Jacksonville that could prove critical in tiebreaker scenarios.
Things aren't going to get easier for the Chiefs, who host the Colts on Sunday before a short-week trip to a dangerous Dallas team on Thanksgiving. The good news for Patrick Mahomes and company is that games against postseason contenders give them a chance to control their own destiny, but they can't afford too many more losses if they hope to avoid a shocking postseason miss.
Atlanta has fallen out of the NFC race
It feels like ages ago when Atlanta upset Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 5 and Bijan Robinson was earning MVP buzz. The Falcons haven't won since, dropping five consecutive games to all but bury themselves in the playoff race after getting swept by Carolina on Sunday in an overtime defeat. With their fifth straight loss, Atlanta has essentially fallen out of the playoff race.
The fact that Atlanta continues to underwhelm despite its collection of highly drafted offensive talent is a bad look for head coach Raheem Morris, who could be on the way out the door if the Falcons can't show some signs of life down the stretch. Quarterback Michael Penix may be out for the season with a new knee injury, and Atlanta doesn't even control its own first round pick, sending what looks like a Top 10 selection to the Rams for the right to draft edge rusher James Pearce in April. It wouldn't be shocking if Morris gets scapegoated for the Falcons' failures soon.