There are just three weeks left in the NFL regular season and the playoff picture is becoming remarkably clear after the results of Week 15. The Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams became the first two teams to punch postseason tickets and another 9 teams have clinching scenarios this week, with many berths potentially getting secured via a combination of wins and a loss from either the Indianapolis Colts or Detroit Lions.
The flip side to that, however, is that only 17 teams remain alive for the other 12 playoff spots (six in each conference) and one of those teams could be eliminated before they even take the field on Sunday. The lack of drama is certainly a headline in the latest NFL Stock Watch, but we'll start on the positive side of the ledger with what looks like a now-or-never moment for Josh Allen and Buffalo.
NFL Stock Watch: Risers
Buffalo Bills' Super Bowl chances
Arguably the best team of the past five years not to reach a Super Bowl, everything appears to be right in front of the Buffalo Bills. The AFC East is a long shot thanks to some early struggles from the Bills and an easy schedule for New England, but the Bills may feel more confident in their ability to reach Santa Clara in mid-February thanks to who won't be playing in the postseason tournament.
The Kansas City Chiefs, their long-time tormentors, are out of the playoffs as is Joe Burrow and Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson and Baltimore would also be outside the postseason picture if the season ended today, leaving an aging Aaron Rodgers and a quintet of young quarterbacks (Bo Nix, Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud) that own a combined three playoff wins (one from Lawrence and two from Stroud) in their way. There are some stacked defenses in that group, particularly from Houston and Denver, but if the Bills can't get out of this version of the AFC perhaps it is time for some serious soul searching for the organization.
Houston Texans
Few teams in the NFL are hotter right now than Houston, which has won nine of its past 11 games after an 0-3 start to the season. A stifling defense has been the key to the Texans' success, which has seen opponents score only 16.3 points per game against them, easily the best mark in the league.
Houston is still in play for the AFC South and could pull into a tie for the division lead if they beat the hapless Raiders and Jacksonville falls to Denver on Sunday. The winner of the AFC South is likely to be the third seed in the AFC, which could mean the Texans would have an opportunity to feast on a banged up Chargers' offensive line and line up against New England in the Divisional Round, offering a path for them to potentially make their first AFC Championship Game.
Thursday Night Football
The much-maligned Thursday Night Football package has been on a bit of a heater lately. Even if Al Michaels sounds less than enthused during big moments, Amazon's last few games have included Chicago's Black Friday statement over Philadelphia, Detroit's monster win over Dallas to keep their postseason hopes alive and Atlanta's stunning upset of Tampa Bay to put the NFC South back into play.
The Week 16 Thursday night matchup is also critical as the Rams head to Seattle for a rematch with the Seahawks that could give the winner the inside track to the top seed in the NFC. Denver is hosting Kansas City on Christmas night to wrap up Amazon's regular season slate and that game could also see the AFC's top seed get clinched, giving Prime Video a lot of key football down the stretch.
Mike Tomlin
Steelers' fans are seemingly over Mike Tomlin but even they have to admit their head coach is a model of remarkable consistency. Monday night's win over Miami helped Pittsburgh maintain its one-game lead in the AFC North and improve to 8-7 on the year, meaning one more win in the Steelers' final three games ensures they will finish with a record of .500 or better for the 19th consecutive season, breaking a tie with former Steelers' legend Chuck Noll for the longest such streak in NFL history.
It is fair to note that there is an 8-8-1 mark in there after the league expanded to a 17-game schedule and that Pittsburgh has not won a postseason game since reaching the AFC Championship Game in 2016, going one and done in their next five playoff appearances. Barring some stumbles from either Jacksonville or Houston in the AFC South, the Steelers would be the 4 seed if they reach the postseason and likely draw Buffalo in the first round, but Tomlin's regular season streak of success should extend either this week in Detroit or next week against Cleveland.
NFL Stock Watch: Fallers
The drama factor
Things feel remarkably set in the postseason picture right now and the league has gotten unlucky with a lack of competition for their final postseason spots. Miami was knocked out of the playoffs on Monday night and Dallas will be eliminated if Philadelphia wins the NFC East on Saturday, meaning we could enter Sunday with just 16 teams contending for the 12 open postseason slots.
Two division races, the NFC South and AFC North, could go down to Week 18 but the fading Colts could be eliminated as soon as Week 17 while the Detroit Lions need to essentially run the table and get help to get into the postseason. While there could still be jockeying for seeding and division crowns over the final three weeks of the season, the fact that the races for who could get into the playoffs are essentially over is not a good thing for the NFL.
The Chiefs' dynasty
Patrick Mahomes' torn ACL marks the beginning of the end for this iteration of the Chiefs' dynasty, snapping their streak of 10 straight AFC West crowns, 7 consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances and 3 straight Super Bowl appearances with three Lombardi Trophies in the past six years. The run of success is remarkable but there are a lot of older players playing key roles for Kansas City, whose luck finally ran out this year thanks to a 1-7 record in one score games.
The timing of Mahomes' injury could cost him some of next season, which could lead to GM Brett Veach resetting the deck a little bit with Kansas City above the 2026 salary cap by over $30 million entering the offseason. Travis Kelce may retire after the season while the Chiefs could sacrifice pieces like Chris Jones to get younger, meaning Kansas City may need to transition to a new core to begin a second wave of a dynasty like the Tom Brady-led Patriots did in the early 2010s.
Health
Football fans want to see the best players on the field for key moments and Week 15 was not a good one for the health department. Besides the loss of Mahomes, Micah Parsons was also lost for the season for the Green Bay Packers to an ACL injury while receiver Christian Watson was hospitalized with a chest injury. Rams' receiver Davante Adams also aggravated a hamstring injury while Texans' starting running back Woody Marks departed Houston's win over Arizona due to injury.
Seeing postseason races impacted by key injuries is a problem and is the latest warning shot for the NFL, which has been eagerly eying an eventual move to an 18-game regular season schedule to add more cash to its coffers. The nature of the sport and the elite training these athletes go through only enhances the prevalence of major injuries, which is not good if you want to see the best teams win in the end, not just the healthiest.
Miami Dolphins
We mentioned earlier that Miami was knocked out of the postseason, but they belong down in this portion of the list due to the lackadaisical approach to their potential elimination on Monday night. Trailing Pittsburgh by multiple scores on Monday night, the Dolphins operated with zero urgency in the fourth quarter, repeatedly huddling up and draining the play clock as if they were more eager to get out of frigid Acrisure Stadium than keep thier postseason dreams alive.
ESPN analyst Troy Aikman ripped into the Dolphins' approach, which cost them a chance to get back in the game as they did score on two consecutive possessions and forced two three-and-outs after falling behind 28-3 in the fourth quarter. The problem was that the Dolphins burned almost half the quarter scoring their touchdowns, leaving them with just 2:04 to go when they got the ball back on their own 3 yard line needing two scores to tie the game.