NFL playoff picture: Who would win the Super Bowl if the season ended after Week 4?

A veteran QB finishes with a storybook ending.
Minnesota Vikings v Pittsburgh Steelers - NFL 2025
Minnesota Vikings v Pittsburgh Steelers - NFL 2025 | Charles McQuillan/GettyImages

Four weeks through the NFL campaign, good teams are starting to pull away from the pack and bad teams — that’s you, Tennessee Titans — are already looking toward how to improve in the offseason.

If the regular season were to end today, who would be raising the Lombardi Trophy? Let’s take a look at how things would shake out in an abbreviated go-round.

How would the AFC bracket look if the playoffs had started on Thursday?

Wild Card round

No. 7 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 2 Los Angeles Chargers

These two teams met once already, with the Bolts downing Andy Reid’s squad 27-21 in Week 1. A loss to the New York Giants last week makes me wonder if Jim Harbaugh’s crew would be able to get past the Chiefs again. I don’t think they would. Chiefs 24, Chargers 17

No. 6 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin’s team played its most complete game during its 24-21 win over the Minnesota Vikings in Dublin. The Bengals, on the other hand, have a struggling offense without injured franchise quarterback Joe Burrow in the fold. The Steelers’ opportunistic defense gives them their first playoff win in what feels like forever. Steelers 31, Bengals 7

No. 5 Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts

Neither of these teams have really beaten anyone notable. Current NFL rushing leader Jonathan Taylor, one of only two tailbacks with 400 yards on the ground thus far, makes the difference here. Colts 28, Jaguars 13

Divisional round

No. 4 Indianapolis Colts at No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers’ defense struggled against the run early on, but seems to have improved with rookie first-round pick Derrick Harmon back in the fold. Taylor still picks up 100 yards on the ground, but Aaron Rodgers’ saaviness pushes Pittsburgh to the doorstep of the Super Bowl. Steelers 20, Colts 13

No. 7 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 1 Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have run into one another in the postseason four times since 2020, including twice in the AFC title game. Mahomes has won all four meetings. This time, though, the Bills’ No. 2-ranked scoring offense (33.3 points per game) finally gets them over the hump. Bills 35, Chiefs 20

Championship round

No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 1 Buffalo Bills

By this point, the Steelers are back fully healthy. Tailback Jaylen Warren, cornerback Joey Porter Jr., outside linebacker Alex Highsmith and defensive back Jalen Ramsey all chip in after missing time. The defense plays how its payroll would suggest and Chris Boswell sends Buffalo home on a last-second field goal. Steelers 27, Bills 24

How would things look on the NFC side?

Wild Card round

No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are dealing with some uncertainty behind center with Brock Purdy aggravating his toe injury. Whether he takes the offense’s reins or Mac Jones does makes no difference. Micah Parsons shows why Green Bay got him. Packers 35, 49ers 13

No. 6 Los Angeles Rams at No. 3 Detroit Lions

The Rams’ wins have come against lesser opponents in Houston, Tennessee and Indianapolis. The Lions don’t seem to have missed a step without Ben Johnson, having averaged 41.3 points over their past three games. Lions 36, Rams 21

No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Seahawks’ defense is giving up 16.8 points per game, tied for the second-fewest in the league. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers showed cracks in its Week 4 loss. Seahawks 24, Buccaneers 15

Divisional round

No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 3 Detroit Lions

The Seahawks’ defense runs into the Lions’ offense here. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are too much for the visitors. Lions 34, Seahawks 14

No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have been waiting to open up their passing game. Philadelphia’s wins are over impressive foes, but their lack of a downfield aerial attack doesn’t help them. Saquon Barkley also runs into a tough rushing defense. Packers 28, Eagles 20

Championship round

No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 3 Detroit Lions

The Lions would need another powerful offensive performance here. They get it on the ground and, finally, reach a Super Bowl by sending the Packers home. Lions 23, Packers 17

Super Bowl LX

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions

Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 18-8 against the Lions all-time. Detroit watched him dominate the NFC North for most of his storied career, and was only able to take hold of the division when he left for New York. By now, the Pittsburgh rushing defense has coalesced, and a talented secondary can match up with the Lions’ pass-catchers.

Rodgers gives Detroit another reason to curse him. Steelers 27, Lions 26

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