Any set of NFL power rankings at this point in the offseason is going to make, break and stake its claim on whether or not you believe certain players and moves are actually good.
We aren't sure if Jaelan Phillips will be the top three pass rusher the Carolina Panthers paid him to be. We have no concept of whether Malik Willis is the future of the Miami Dolphins or not. We don’t even know if several major players will be healthy for the start of the season. These power rankings are an effort to codify uncertainty and correct for these issues, evaluating teams based on what I do know. They are not ranked by future promise or overall franchise situation, but simply by how likely I think it is that they win the Super Bowl next year. We good? Good. Let’s roll.
Tier 1: Teams that could actually win the Super Bowl
1. Los Angeles Rams
I am of the opinion that the Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks last year was a coin flip, and also of the opinion that both would have beat the New England Patriots rather handily in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks shed some talent, while the Rams brought in half the Kansas City Chiefs’ secondary, including a nuclear bomb of a trade for Trent McDuffie, a young and legitimately elite cornerback. The Rams gave up a lot of draft capital and are a very expensive team, but in terms of winning the Super Bowl next year? They are healthy, loaded and poised to compete in by far the toughest division in the NFL.
2. Seattle Seahawks
They won the Super Bowl and kind of just destroyed everyone on the way, though they did lose some impact players, most notably Kenneth Walker III — the Super Bowl MVP. But the Seahawks looked like the kind of team that could weather that kind of storm, and were simply a cut above the rest of the league that didn’t improve that much. Their division did get much tougher with the San Francisco 49ers and Rams making major additions, so the Seahawks will have to work to keep their spot atop the heap.
3. Denver Broncos
It’s been a strange offseason for the Broncos, who have signed one singular free agent and traded a first-round pick for Jaylen Waddle. That is #ReallyExpensive, though Waddle has been excellent in spurts without Tyreek Hill and has never played with a good quarterback. I have reason to believe that the Broncos were probably the best team in the AFC last year and could be again, but it’s hard to keep up when you don’t load up. The AFC has improved around them, and they benefited from an easy schedule and a first-round bye, neither of which will come for free.
4. San Francisco 49ers
When healthy this team looks like a rock-solid contender; Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and their new friend Mike Evans. When healthy they could maybe win the NFC West over the two juggernauts above. When healthy they had the inside track to the NFC one seed last year. When healthy, this team can do anything. Yet they have never been healthy, and scar tissue accumulates both physically and metaphorically.
5. Green Bay Packers
There is no good reason why this team can’t be a major player next year. It’s a stacked roster with great players at every premium position. They shed some talent in free agency, otherwise they’d be higher, but are fixing for a hopefully healthy campaign from one of the game’s most disruptive pass rushers: Micah Parsons. They’re in the NFL’s second-hardest division, but I think they’re the class of it — I’m not that scared of Kyler Murray, and I’m less than convinced by the Detroit Lions. More on that later.
6. Buffalo Bills
One of the most polarizing teams this offseason. On one hand, it feels like the Bills got the absolute minimum out of last season when Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson were all out of the postseason, firing Head Coach Sean McDermott to that effect. They made one of the splashier adds of the offseason in DJ Moore, but also have not re-signed most of their veteran free agents — defensive stalwarts Matt Milano and Joey Bosa as well as left guard David Edwards are the most notable. Still, they signed Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to try to fill those holes. This team is, above all, expensive and not getting cheaper. Unless the Bills start hitting some drafts, this could get spooky long-term.
7. New England Patriots
Your defending Super Bowl Runner-Up is back and better than … last year. Will that be good enough? The Patriots made a number of solid additions, from Dre’Mont Jones to Romeo Doubs, and still have serious cap space with the quarterback position figured out. That’s all you can really ask for when you’re working a developmental project, but New England strapped on the nitro boosters and accidentally made the Super Bowl last year, which will accelerate all of our expectations. And this season is going to be a lot tougher than last year — they play a brutal first-place schedule and will be catching nobody by surprise anymore. A backslide feels almost inevitable, but just like any great LinkedIn profile “there is ample opportunity for growth and innovation.”
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars basically just got worse in free agency, losing running back Travis Etienne and linebacker Devin Lloyd, but this roster is still poised for success along the lines of solid fundamentals: quarterback, pass rush, offensive playmakers. The offensive line is still a work in progress, but if Trevor Lawrence can continue clicking with young receivers, Etienne should be replaceable. I'm pretty okay believing in Trevor Lawrence after last season; it was a notable and visible improvement.
9. Los Angeles Chargers
Mike McDaniel isn’t a player, but the play caller is one of the most significant additions of free agency. The Chargers were ravaged by injuries last year, with Justin Herbert playing behind an offensive line that became a meme because of its PFF grades. This defense was legitimately stacked, though, and while they lost menacing defensive end Odafe Oweh, there is still lots to work with. Left tackle Rashawn Slater returning from injury alone might be worth a few wins, and with McDaniel crafting an offense with explosive weapons everywhere? I’m pretty in.
10. Chicago Bears
“Thou shalt be careful with last year’s Cinderella NFL team lest thou court mocking and jeers” (Confucius). The Bears got every break until the very end, losing in overtime to this list’s number one team in the second round of the playoffs. With no major adds in Free Agency and the loss of impact players Kevin Byard and DJ Moore, we have one simple question to answer: is this just the 2024 Commanders again? They won their division which begets a harder schedule and they got gobsmackingly lucky last year to get to 11 wins. Much like the Patriots, this reeks of regression. But also much like the Patriots, this team is full of young players who could push things in the other direction. Maybe we should combine the teams into the New Chicagengland Patribears. No?
11. Baltimore Ravens
I swapped the Ravens in and out of this tier no fewer than 15 times before settling on this spot, giving in to my “they still have Lamar Jackson” instincts like any great NFL fan. They were poised to mortgage their future on this window when they traded two first-round picks for Maxx Crosby … but then voided it and signed Trey Hendrickson instead for zero first-round picks. What a deal! I have one question they will have to answer: is the offensive talent around Lamar good enough? I don’t think so, with Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry the only ones approaching “good” status and, while I know this sounds impossible, Henry is not going to be elite forever. When an offensive player falls off, it happens quick (ask Travis Kelce, Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins). Losing best-center-in-the-league Tyler Linderbaum is also massive, so I’m going to need to see this offense to believe it.
Tier 2: Teams that could win the Super Bowl under very specific conditions
12. Dallas Cowboys
Last year was a sad story with the Cowboys being probably the most fun team to watch … yet their season was over before it even started. I’m sure whatever George Pickens drama is loading will be epic with the receiver set to play under the tag, and there are lots of questions about how this team is being managed. But Dak Prescott is, and remains, a great quarterback in a league that lacks them. The defense got better (after it got way worse) on the backs of a couple of signings and some major defensive tackle trades (plural, one of which made their team worse i.e. Micah Parsons but we're moving on) last year. The defense is going to need to be a lot better, though, if this team is going to move itself into the next group. You could certainly accuse this of being too high, but the Cowboys roster is good in a division that is not. I think they’re poised for a bounce-back year.
13. Philadelphia Eagles
No NFL team has ever gone 11-6 with worse vibes than the Eagles had last year; since winning the Super Bowl, they have done basically nothing but hemorrhage talent and deal with trade rumors about A.J. Brown. To keep it simple, there’s still plenty to work with here, but the 2024 ring came from young players they will now have to pay; I have no idea how this team actually gets better in the near term — they will just have to play better.
14. Detroit Lions
The Lions signed a lot of players in free agency, but are any of them good players? This team still has a boatload of blue-chip beasts from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jahmyr Gibbs and Aiden Hutchinson as well as an excellent offensive line. But sooner or later, this team will have to make an effort to improve upon the quarterback position. They would be fools to see Jared Goff as the next Sam Darnold story.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A flirtation with being really good ended in calamity for Tampa, utterly falling apart down the stretch and losing a heartbreaking three-way tie with the Panthers and Falcons for their heartbreakingly bad division (they were all 8-9). I was tempted to separate the Bucs and the next two teams into their own little group but decided to include them here instead. I don’t think Mike Evans is that big a loss given how many receivers they had last year and that Evans looks like all those thousand-yard seasons may be wearing on his body. Hypebeasts will tell you the Panthers should be above them, but Carolina made some splashy adds to an extremely thin roster; the Bucs still have talent across the board that I’d rather bet on. They aren't better than a few teams below them, but their division is a disaster. They could win it and not be particularly good. Such is life.
16. Houston Texans
I am recusing myself from discussing C.J. Stroud because I just don’t know. In spots, he looks elite. In others (like these playoffs) he looks abominable. He’s not that mobile and makes terrible pocket decisions — kind of a death sentence when the Myles Garretts of the world are crashing down on your embarrassment of an offensive line. Still, the Texans added Braden Smith and some other decent offensive pieces and didn’t get worse on defense. The real existential threat here is the Stroud extension conversation; we have seen what these big contracts for sub-par quarterbacks can do to a franchise. Just ask team #32.
17. Kansas City Chiefs
This one is out of respect. They were plastered in the next group until I decided that uncertainty in waiting for Patrick Mahomes isn’t the same thing as uncertainty in waiting for Daniel Jones. Mahomes standing upright means you’re a contender, it just does; I have no idea when that will be and I have no idea if the Chiefs will be any good after losing basically their entire team but also bringing in the Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III to slightly fix the vibes. The vibes are strange. But I wouldn’t necessarily say they’re bad.
Tier 3: Teams that could win the Super Bowl if everything works all at once
18. Indianapolis Colts
This team is teetering on the edge of something; might be disaster, might be glory, might be painful mediocrity. They spent big on Alec Piece and invested in Daniel Jones for the future. The latter’s injury will define this team going into next year, and like most of the teams in this category … I don’t have much else to speculate on. It could sort itself out more quickly than we all think. Will it? We’ll see.
19. Minnesota Vikings
Say it with me now: “Is Kyler Murray a starting quarterback in the NFL?” (audience: “MAYBE!”) “Is he worth $1.3 million for one year?” (audience: “SURE!”) There’s not really a downside to bringing in Murray when the Arizona Cardinals will be paying his entire salary. Does that make them a Super Bowl threat? Probably not, though, like with all these teams, there are things to like all over the roster. J.J. McCarthy was an investment that is starting to look like Enron stock in 2001. Did any of the value ever even exist?
20. Carolina Panthers
This will be the hipster team of the 2026 season if it isn’t already — Bryce Young is a peak speculative concept that sometimes makes incredible athletic throws and moves well in and outside the pocket. Other times, he looks like he is not physically capable of being on the field with hulking titans trying to swallow him like he’s Jonah and they’re the whale. They paid Jaelan Phillips a ton of money to fill their biggest hole, and people will be in on this team to win the division, mark my words. I need way more proof of concept before I go there.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Not a hipster team so much as a retiree former hipster who still talks about the Summer of ‘69 like it was a separate transcendental plane of human experience. I know Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are good — there’s just nothing else. The Bengals looked in the mirror when they had to pay all three of them an entire third of their salary cap and decided they’d rather die with their squad than live without them. We might be in the dying part of that story.
Tier 4: Teams that cannot win the Super Bowl
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
Vibes? Bad. Hall of Fame Coach? Gone. Quarterback? Either a quadragenarian or nobody at all. I won’t bemoan the Steelers’ sad state of affairs because it’s just not very interesting, though I think ending the Mike Tomlin era was good for the overall direction of the franchise. They actually had a decent offseason with Jamel Dean and Rico Dowdle coming in, but what, Aaron Rodgers (who is about as communicative a partner as your second-semester senior lab partner who already got into Cornell) is going to come back and win the Super Bowl? As if.
23. Washington Commanders
This is such a weird situation because usually “young and good quarterback” = good franchise direction, but Jayden Daniels managed to parachute into an old team that didn’t really improve in his second year. They did some work this offseason getting the defense up to speed (literally, did you see Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner try to cover space last year?) but last season was so bad we’re going to need serious proof of concept before we believe again.
24. New York Giants
They hired John Harbaugh and brought in solid talent on the fringes but simply have too many holes to fill to call this a success yet. I thought Jaxson Dart had the traits of a legitimately special quarterback last year, but they are going to need time and patience to get this roster back to where it can compete.
25. New Orleans Saints
Opinions on Tyler Shough? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? I have no idea guys, I didn’t see enough from the rookie quarterback to go one way or another, but I was shocked by the late push for him to win offensive rookie of the year; it’s one thing to just freelance when your team is trying to lose, another entirely when you have to game manage and system up some wins. This team is 25th on my list and 24th in cap space — that is no way to run a team, and it will still be a while before the team can get out from under all their dead cap and start paying good players.
26. Atlanta Falcons
I did this whole shtick in my winners and losers column, but I just cannot take a team that signs Tua Tagovailoa as their starter seriously. You could say they aren’t really paying him so it’s fine, but this is a whole different beast than Kyler Murray, who was never the detrimental player Tua is. Under no circumstances can the Falcons win anything with Tagovailoa, and it’s a shame for a roster that is actually decent everywhere else. If I'm wrong about this, I will be happy to be wrong.
Tier 5: Teams that cannotwin much of anything
27. Las Vegas Raiders
Well it certainly won’t get worse for the Las Vegas Raiders who probably did as bad as was humanly possible last year after “upgrading” coach and quarterback to Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, two people they promptly fired. This team is being run like a lemonade stand without even a clear pink-or-regular lemonade inventory strategy, and while they made or will make a few great adds (Linderbaum, number one pick Fernando Mendoza), let’s see something before we believe in all this.
28. Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward hype seemed to spontaneously grow out of my floorboards this offseason, as I was not seeing the same promise everyone else seemed to clock after a 3-14 season where Ward was loose with the football and mainly impressed with flashy throws that are not what makes a good quarterback long term. Brian Daboll was infinitely maligned as a coach in New York, and the assumptions that he will somehow unlock Ward rest on flimsy assumptions of Josh Allen and Daniel Jones’ developments that I would challenge anyone to actually prove in court. They spent a lot of money this offseason, but still lack a thing we call “playmakers.” I just don’t see who moves the needle for this team unless Ward is suddenly big time.
29. New York Jets
In one of the most hilarious moments of the NFL year, the Jets brought back Geno Smith to be their starting quarterback next season, who began his career with said Jets over a decade ago. They decided to bring in some veterans to actually get some infrastructure around whomever they draft for the next few years, but wow this team was terrible last year. I’m shocked they’re inside the Top 30.
30. Arizona Cardinals
We’re now just getting to teams that are making no effort to conceal their goals for next year, beginning with the inconsequential Arizona Cardinals who are telling Jacoby Brissett to kind of just … go out there and have fun while they figure out how to fix probably the most broken quarterback situation in the league. Even Cardinals writers aren’t talking themselves into this plan, and Ty Simpson out of Alabama might be one solution, but almost no evaluator has him as the third overall pick. It seems likely that the Cardinals, like the Jets, see next year’s QB class as their time to shine, and it’s tank tank tank till then.
31. Cleveland Browns
The Browns rightly focused this offseason on making sure their offensive line can work for whoever happens to be playing quarterback for them next year, but they have made no concerted effort to go “all-in” or even “half-in” or really even “in-at-all” on Shedeur Sanders, their presumptive starter this year who was simply not good in his first short season. Like the two teams ahead of them, it’s probably the 2027 draft for our friends in Cleveland. Getting out of the Deshaun Watson mega-fiasco has been and will continue to be this team’s financial and managerial priority for at least the next year.
32. Miami Dolphins
You want a blueprint on how to be terrible? Introducing the 2026 Miami Dolphins, who are currently the only NFL team above the cap and have arguably the worst roster in the entire NFL. Five players: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey and Minkah Fitzpatrick account for roughly half of their salary cap next year, with all five sharing the common trait of NOT BEING ON THE TEAM ANYMORE. The Tua contract was an apocalypse, and now it’s the end times. No number of Malik Willises will fix that, at least not this year.