Purgatory's Risers and Fallers
24. Miami Dolphins
As we get closer to the start of Week 1, there's a slowing growing swell of optimism for the Dolphins. After all, whenever Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy, this team has been an above-average group. That's probably still going to be true of this offense, though I do wonder if we see some decline given some uncertainty with Tyreek Hill at this stage of his career. But frankly, I think this defense might be a certified problem this season, one that the offense can't fully overcome.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars
Is this the first functional situation that we've seen Trevor Lawrence in since he joined the Jaguars? There's undeniably a real question about Liam Coen and what he looks like as a head coach, especially considering he's surrounded by a largely inexperienced staff. At the same time, Jacksonville has assuredly improved the talent on this roster and, if Lawrence is going to live up to his No. 1 pick status, this might be the first real signs we see it now that he's joined by adults in the room.
22. New England Patriots
Mike Vrabel might be able to change a culture like you and I change a t-shirt at 4 p.m. on a sunny July day. The vibes out of New England could not be stronger given what this team has been mired in over recent years. There is a substantially improved offensive group around Drake Maye now, and we could see the Patriots start to take off. What could define their ceiling is how much of a leap they and even the defense are able to make under Vrabel, though, but it's not far-fetched to put the Patriots among the legitimate rising sleepers in the NFL.
21. Dallas Cowboys
In the wake of the Micah Parsons trade, it would seem to me that the best-case scenario for the Dallas Cowboys in the 2025 season is that they are the Bengals from a year ago. A healthy Dak Prescott means that this offense, especially with former OC Brian Schottenheimer now the head coach, should mean this team can score a ton after adding George Pickens. But without Parsons, this defense has fundamental issues that I don't think Matt Eberflus is capable of overcoming. Expect the Cowboys to be in a ton of shootouts that, ultimately, turn into coin-flips.
20. Chicago Bears
Don't be too mad to see the Bears this low on this list. I'm actually fully a believer in Ben Johnson and, by proxy, what Caleb Williams is going to look like in this offense. The revamped offensive line might be an even bigger reason to believe in the Chicago offense. However, I have questions about the defense that persist, especially for a group that, at least from where I'm sitting, looks a little too thin on the depth chart. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but I do believe that could hold Chicago back from a full-on breakout in Johnson's first season.
19. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta winding up at the end of the "Purgatory" tier is fitting, because it absolutely does seem as if the Falcons are well on their way to climbing out of this spot. This is Michael Penix Jr.'s team now, and the upside prospect that brings to this talent rich offense is enticing. With the offseason additions to this defense, there's also now more hope than ever for the defense as well. It's not a guarantee that everything clicks immediately, but the positive signs are too numerous to ignore for the Dirty Birds.