Almost Contenders
13. San Francisco 49ers
Despite my ever-persistent skepticism about Brock Purdy, he's paid and this 49ers team is going through some changes as a result. The simple fact of the matter is that San Francisco has had to sacrifice some pieces to pay their quarterback. Yet, Christian McCaffrey should be healthy, the wide receiver corps is deep enough to start the year without Brandon Aiyuk, and the defense should still be quite good. It's not a certainty that the Niners are back in contention, but it feels safe to say they're closer to that point than not.
12. Minnesota Vikings
As a card-carrying member of the J.J. McCarthy Believers, I'm going to continue to think that the Vikings aren't about to fall off in any meaningful way, despite the change at quarterback. Kevin O'Connell might simply be the best coach in the NFL and the reviews out of Minnesota for McCarthy this offseason have been stellar. We know the weapons are there, the offensive line is back healthy, and the defense might be the only question — good thing they have Brian Flores! There have been changes, but sleeping on the Vikings seems wildly foolish to me.
11. Arizona Cardinals
Serious question: Has anyone actually talked about the Cardinals in the offseason and preseason? That's hyperbolic, but it feels like Arizona is sliding entirely under the radar as we approach Week 1. They shouldn't. Things started to coalesce for Jonathan Gannon's team last season and the talent level has now improved substantially. We've not seen a roster this fully formed in some time, and I don't think it's unrealistic to have the Cardinals as a legitimate threat to win the NFC West this season. They still have to prove it, sure, but the pieces are in place.
10. Detroit Lions
We might never get a better test case for how much coaching matters than this year's Lions. Was the magic in Detroit emanating from Dan Campbell all along, or is it going to start to show cracks now that Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn aren't around any longer? I, unfortunately, probably lean a bit more to the latter, especially after the preseason gave me what I think is reasonable cause for concern. It's impossible still to argue with the talent that's on this roster and what that is always capable of, but the truth of the matter is that the Lions might be taking a notable step back.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Liam Coen might be gone, but I don't the Buccaneers are going anywhere. Navigating roadblocks like the Tristan Wirfs injury will be important in what could be an improved NFC South this season, but the Bucs still feel like they're ultimately still in great hands. Baker Mayfield and this offense should keep humming and betting on a Todd Bowles defense remains an enticing proposition. Much like the Lions, there's a risk for some coaching turnover, but I'm more confident in the infrastructure with Tampa Bay than I am in Detroit simply because the changes to the staff aren't quite as wholesale.
8. Washington Commanders
Anyone who would argue that Jayden Daniels isn't simply incredible is just a hater of the highest order. Moreover, while Deebo Samuel's end in San Francisco wasn't all too pretty, his fit with Kliff Kingsbury's offense feels as natural as could be, and that unit should keep making waves. That's especially true with the O-line improvements. Even with Dan Quinn, though, does thi team actually have the horses to compete meaningfully atop the NFC again, or was last year still somewhat of an outlier? That's the only question I need answered to fully buy in on the Commanders.