NFL standings by Super Bowl odds after Week 5: Chiefs and Ravens surprise

After five weeks of the NFL season, one thing is clear – we don't know nearly as much as we thought. While Vegas crowned the Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl hopefuls before the season, each of those five teams has run into their own struggles to start the campaign. Whether it be injuries, a Super Bowl hangover or complacency in the midst of a dynasty, the road to paydirt won't come as easily as initially thought for any one contender.

The theme of this NFL season has been parity, and the latest Super Bowl odds reflect just that. What they do not line up with, however, is the current NFL standings. Vegas doesn't determine which teams make the playoffs or eventually contend for a Super Bowl title. The prognosticators also surely don't care what the outlook is after five weeks. There is a lot of season left, and through over one-quarter of it, the pretenders have had a field day.

The odds in this article are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

AFC East

Vegas isn't buying the New England Patriots just yet. While the Patriots shocked the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football this week, thus moving to within a game of the Super Bowl frontrunners in the AFC East standings, there is still a lot of season left. Buffalo started the season in a Super Bowl or bust mentality. Anything short of that goal would be disappointing for Sean McDermott and Co., and they know it.

The smart money is on Buffalo to emerge in the East and – if all goes well – cement a first-round bye and homefield in the AFC postseason as well. Yet, the Patriots schedule gets much easier the next few weeks. Expect their odds to increase if they can beat the likes of the Saints, Titans, Browns and Falcons the next four games.

AFC North

Yes, Vegas still believes in the Ravens. Baltimore's had a rough go of it to start their season, which much like the Bills is centered on Super Bowl expectations. Lamar Jackson is injured, and the Ravens defense has a lot of work to do if they hope to hold up in the playoffs later this year.

While the Ravens are favored, it's a bit of a surprise to note the overall lack of bettors on the Steelers bandwagon. Yes, Pittsburgh hasn't won a playoff game since 2016, but Aaron Rodgers has done just enough to hand the Steelers and early-season division lead of two games. Vegas hasn't seen enough from this Pittsburgh team, which has been inconsistent defensively as well despite a high-profile trade for Jalen Ramsey.

AFC South

Before the start of the regular season, the Houston Texans were the favorites to win the South and deemed the most likely team in this division to win the AFC. Oh, how times have changed. Thanks to Daniel Jones – since dubbed Indiana Jones – the Colts have dominated much of their competition early this year. The Jacksonville Jaguars knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Both teams are a few good bounces away from being 5-0, and the division as a whole looks better from top to bottom than years past.

The Texans cannot be counted out just yet. Houston has a talented defense, and if CJ Stroud finds a way out of his early-season funk, then perhaps DeMeco Ryans' team can find some life in the second half.

AFC West

Despite their loss on Monday night to Jacksonville in heartbreaking fashion, the Kansas City Chiefs remain one of the favorites to win not just the AFC West, but the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have been here before. KC's doubters love to write them off far too soon – it's only been five weeks, after all – only to backtrack when Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Co. prove them wrong.

Minus the Chiefs, the biggest surprise on this list is the Broncos. Sure, Denver has looked rather beatable to start the year, but they still have Sean Payton and a rapidly-improving offense led by Bo Nix. Just last season, Nix dominated the second half of the schedule. The Broncos made the playoffs, for goodness sake! Denver has a solid defense, but need Nix to get hot to overtake the Chargers and Chiefs in the division.

NFC East

The gap between the Philadelphia Eagles and everybody else shouldn't come as a shock. Philly did win the Super Bowl just last season, after all, and started this year 4-0 before losing to the Broncos in Week 5. Still, the Eagles have looked...a bit boring offensively to start the season. This team is lacking offensive flare without Kellen Moore, and they know it. This is despite featuring Saquon Barkley in their backfield, and Jalen Hurts behind center. Something has to give.

As for the rest of this division, the Washington Commanders should feel slightly disrespected by these odds. Yes, they are just 3-2, but they made the NFC Championship Game last season and were without Jayden Daniels for several games early in their 2025 campaign. Surely, Washington has what it takes to make another run, even if Vegas doesn't think so.

NFC North

I don't know what the oddsmakers see in Jordan Love that I haven't, but in what world are the Packers and Lions on a level playing field? Yes, I understand Green Bay defeated Detroit to open the season. Since then, though, the Lions have been on an absolute tear and have one of the best point differentials in the league. The Packers have lost to the Browns and tied the Cowboys in Micah Parsons the same. These two products are not the same.

As for the Vikings and Bears, we can't expect much more. Minnesota is without JJ McCarthy, and Carson Wentz is injured as of this week. Even when healthy, McCarthy looked subpar, yet somehow Minnesota is 3-2. The Bears are in their first season with Ben Johnson at the helm and only their second since drafting Caleb Williams. This is a slow play.

NFC South

The only team in the NFC South that should be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have a solid roster, a defensive head coach they can trust in Todd Bowles, plus Baker Mayfield and a loaded receiving corps when healthy. Everyone else is playing for second, and if Tampa can secure the No. 2 seed or, even better, the first-round bye, they could set themselves up for a postseason run.

I picked the Falcons as a dark horse in this division, but their schedule is a disaster starting next week. Atlanta plays the Bills, 49ers, Patriots and Colts in four out of five weeks. Their Super Bowls odds should drop dramatically if they're unable to make it out of that stretch alive.

NFC West

The Rams are postseason vets at this point. They know what to expect late in the season, and if the last two years are any indication, it's likely to include a matchup with the Lions at some point. Nonetheless, LA's respectable start has come with a few bumps in a road. Despite preseason injury concerns, Matthew Stafford has looked just fine, thanks in large part to Puka Nacua.

The 49ers, with odds just a bit higher than the Rams to win the Super Bowl, lead the division despite a number of critical injuries, including to starting quarterback Brock Purdy and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. The Seahawks are a work in progress, but have featured one of the better offenses in football through five weeks. So far, signing Sam Darnold looks like a rather large upgrade over Geno Smith, and it gives Seattle a chance every week.