The Divisional Round is in the books and three of the top four seeds entering the postseason are still standing. That fact may come as a surprise considering how topsy turvy the 2025 season has been, but one thing that has become clear is that fortune is (again) smiling on the New England Patriots.
Most fans of the other 31 teams would argue that Patriots' backers deserved to struggle through a prolonged rebuild to karmically even out their lordship of the league for nearly two decades. The rebuild is over in New England as Mike Vrabel and MVP candidate Drake Maye stand 60 minutes from a Super Bowl, reaping in even more good luck that seems incredulous now.
As we gear up for the final Stock Watch of the season, we'll start with a look at New England's rising tide to the big game, which got a considerable boost when the Denver Broncos lost their starting quarterback after Saturday's victory over Buffalo.
NFL Stock Watch - Rising
New England Patriots
To be fair to the Patriots, it is very hard to win games in the NFL and they haven't won 16 of their 19 games this season by accident. There are some facts that are indisputable, however, including the fact that the combined .391 winning percentage of their opponents is by far the lowest in the league.
The postseason also delivered a favorable draw for the Patriots, who took care of a banged-up Chargers' team and a skittish C.J. Stroud to get to the AFC Championship Game against Denver, who has to start Jarrett Stidham after Bo Nix fractured a bone in his ankle during overtime on Saturday. The spread for the game shifted almost a touchdown in New England's favor compared to the look-ahead line, which had the Broncos favored by a point and a half at home, which won't stop the allegations that the Patriots have rediscovered some sort of dark magic to re-assert themselves as an AFC superpower.
Defensive Head Coaches
The trend in the NFL of late has been to hire an offensive-minded head coach, preferably someone off the coaching trees of Sean McVay and/or Kyle Shanahan, to guide a quarterback to the top. With 10 teams changing coaches in the NFL this hiring cycle it looked as if things would skew further to the offensive side of the ball, but teams have reacted accordingly to the fact that there are few hot-shot offensive coordinator candidates to choose from in this cycle.
The only offensive hire so far has been Kevin Stefanski moving from Cleveland to Atlanta, while Tennessee and Miami both hired defensive coordinators to lead their teams in Robert Saleh (getting a well-deserved second shot at a head gig) and Jeff Hafley respectively. Jesse Minter and Brian Flores are among the hottest names in this cycle as well, which could shift the balance of power back towards the middle of the offense/defense spectrum.
Sean McVay
The recent coaching changes in Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Buffalo draw attention to the tremendous system Sean McVay has built with the Los Angeles Rams. McVay is tied with Shanahan for the second-longest head coaching tenure in the league, trailing only Andy Reid in Kansas City, and helped the Rams survive a brutally cold game on Sunday night to reach the NFC Championship Game for the third time under his leadership.
The matchup with the Seahawks on Sunday also marks the first time that McVay has seen a repeat opponent in the postseason, which is an incredible streak when you consider the fact that Los Angeles has played 15 playoff games since 2017. The Rams nearly swept the Seahawks this season and if they can win the rubber game on Sunday McVay will have a chance to cement his legacy as a future Hall of Famer with a second Lombardi Trophy.
Sam Darnold
A late week addition to the injury report caused the doubters to swirl around Sam Darnold, theorizing that the oblique injury Seattle said he was dealing with was a preliminary excuse if Darnold came up small in January again. Darnold proved the doubters wrong with a solid performance against San Francisco, completing 12-of-17 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks' blowout win.
The Seahawks weren't afraid to take big shots with Darnold, who averaged 7.3 yards per attempt in the game, which helped open up running lanes for Kenneth Walker's strong performance. With Zach Charbonnet done for the year after suffering a torn ACL, Seattle will need to put more on Darnold's plate if they hope to win their rubber match with the Rams to reach Super Bowl LX.
NFL Stock Watch - Falling
Buffalo Bills
Aside from squandering a golden opportunity to reach the Super Bowl with Josh Allen, the Bills pulled a bizarre half measure for resetting their team. It is easy to understand why Sean McDermott was let go after nine years, particularly when Buffalo has come up short in the postseason repeatedly, but it is hard to justify why GM Brandon Beane not only stayed but got a promotion to President of Football Operations.
Beane has not done well as a drafter of late and has overseen the depletion of Allen's receiving corps, leaving him throwing to a collection of secondary targets, draft busts and veterans who are past their prime. With the Patriots on the rise and the AFC as deep as ever, failing to completely reset their organization to best support Allen is asking for future disappointment.
Job Security
McDermott's departure from Buffalo marked the third head coach this offseason to be let go after staying with his team for at least nine seasons, which shows how even the most stable organizations can feel the heat of the "what have you done for me lately" disease that is plaguing the league. 10 teams are going to enter 2026 with new head coaches and the odds are high that at least seven of those teams will be looking for a new coach again at this time in three years.
A good comparison to be made here is to the 2022 hiring cycle, where eight coaches were hired and only two remain in place: Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles (who has come under fire for the Buccaneers' late season collapse) and Minnesota's Kevin O'Connell. It takes time to build a program in the NFL that is capable of contending, especially if a new coach inherits a rebuild, but impatient owners have become accustomed to simply throwing the coach overboard when their fans wonder why turnarounds don't happen immediately.
C.J. Stroud
Fewer quarterbacks hurt their future earning potential more this season than C.J. Stroud, who was a rising star in the league after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2023. A sophomore slump hurt Stroud a bit last season and there were certainly warning signs during the regular season as backup Davis Mills was able to operate the Texans' offense quite efficiently when Stroud missed time due to a concussion.
Ball security was a major issue for Stroud in the postseason as he fumbled five times (losing two) in the Wild Card round and threw four back-breaking interceptions in the first half on Sunday against New England. While Houston appears committed to Stroud and should exercise his fifth-year option, he will need to play better next season if he wants a huge contract extension.
Christian McCaffrey
This placement here is not an indictment on Christian McCaffrey's performance as he almost singlehandedly kept the 49ers' offense afloat as skill position players went down left and right. The neck stinger McCaffrey suffered in the second half of Sunday night's loss to Seattle served as an ill-timed reminder of the fragility of running backs who do it all like McCaffrey does, especially given his checkered injury history.
McCaffrey racked up an absurd 450 combined touches counting the postseason, which is a hefty workload for a player set to turn 30 in June. Much ado was made about Saquon Barkley's dip in production after his 482 touch campaign a year ago so the 49ers need to think long and hard about an insurance policy for their star runner given the increased likelihood McCaffrey either misses time or is less effective given the amount of punishment his body has taken over the past six months.