Life was easier when an NFL season was 16 games, because you could break everything into even chunks. Now that it’s 17 games, it just mucks everything up.
It’s easy to put the first chunk of the season in a category: It’s September football. It's essentially an extended preseason (but with stakes), and it’s before the bye weeks start, so every team plays each week.
After that, it gets real. Teams have (hopefully) established their identities, they’re travelling around the world, and at some point in the next four to five weeks, it’ll start to be football weather.
Q2 is looking very different for a pair of NFC North teams
The most important thing with these rankings is their opponents’ cumulative winning percentage. After that, we care about whether the opponents are actually good (i.e., the Cincinnati Bengals’ 2-2 record is different from the Chiefs' 2-2 record). Then we have to take into account if they have a bye week and who comes after it. Then we look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Then we look to see if there are divisional games. Then we look to see the home/away, and if that will actually matter.
This is everything that we’re looking at:
Team | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Op. Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARI | TEN | @IND | GB | BYE | @DAL | 38% |
ATL | BYE | BUF | @SF | MIA | @NE | 63% |
BAL | HOU | LAR | BYE | CHI | @MIA | 44% |
BUF | NE | @ATL | BYE | @CAR | KC | 44% |
CAR | MIA | DAL | @NYJ | BUF | - | 38% |
CHI | BYE | @WSH | NO | @BAL | @CIN | 31% |
CIN | DET | @GB | PIT | NYJ | - | 50% |
CLE | MIN | @PIT | MIA | @NE | - | 50% |
DAL | @NYJ | @CAR | WSH | @DEN | - | 31% |
DEN | @PHI | @NYJ | NYG | DAL | - | 38% |
DET | @CIN | @KC | TB | BYE | MIN | 56% |
GB | BYE | CIN | @ARI | @PIT | CAR | 50% |
HOU | @BAL | - | @SEA | SF | DEN | 56% |
IND | LV | ARI | @LAC | TEN | - | 38% |
JAX | KC | SEA | LAR | BYE | @LV | 56% |
KC | @JAX | DET | LV | WSH | - | 56% |
LAC | WSH | @MIA | IND | MIN | - | 50% |
LAR | SF | @BAL | @JAX | BYE | NO | 44% |
LV | @IND | TEN | @KC | BYE | JAX | 50% |
MIA | @CAR | LAC | @CLE | @ATL | - | 56% |
MIN | @CLE | BYE | PHI | @LAC | @DET | 69% |
NE | @BUF | @NO | @TEN | CLE | - | 31% |
NO | NYG | NE | @CHI | TB | - | 50% |
NYG | @NO | PHI | @DEN | @PHI | - | 63% |
NYJ | DAL | DEN | CAR | @CIN | - | 38% |
PHI | DEN | @NYG | @MIN | NYG | - | 38% |
PIT | BYE | CLE | @CIN | GB | IND | 50% |
SEA | TB | @JAX | HOU | BYE | @WSH | 56% |
SF | @LAR | @TB | ATL | @HOU | - | 56% |
TB | @SEA | SF | @DET | @NO | - | 56% |
TEN | @ARI | @LV | NE | @IND | - | 50% |
WSH | @LAC | CHI | @DAL | @KC | - | 50% |
Hardest NFL schedules for the next 4 weeks
Unfortunately for these teams, they’re not great. It wouldn’t be surprising if we look up in a month and a half and see them with only one or two more wins than they have right now.
Minnesota Vikings
Even with a bye in Week 6, the Vikings have, by far, the hardest next four games of any team. Skip two paragraphs if you want the TL; DR.
They’re following up their Week 4 loss in Dublin with a game in London against the Browns, who are only looking to play spoiler. They get a week off after their holiday across the pond, but jump right back into the fire with a Week 7 game against a juggernaut in the Eagles.
There’s no rest for the wicked, because after that, they get to head to Los Angeles and play the Chargers on a short week. After their 10-day mini-bye, they get to head back north and play the Lions in Detroit.
It’s hell.
New York Giants
Before the season started, the 49ers were supposed to have the easiest schedule in the NFL. Turns out, that changed, and their schedule is actually pretty tough. The Giants, on the other hand, were going to have the hardest schedule… that didn’t change. Their schedule is still brutal, and they’re up a creek without a paddle.
What’s fun about all of this is that they get to play a winless Saints team in Week 5… and then they still have the second hardest schedule in the second quarter of the season.
They get the Eagles on a short week, then they go to Denver to see a Broncos team that looks like they are playing better, and then they get to play the Eagles again.
It’s cool that they got a win against the Chargers in Week 4, because their next four games are brutal.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons' Q2 is either going to be super tough or mostly easy. In an attempt to try to get back to my New Year’s Resolution of trying to think more positively, I’m thinking that the teams they get in Weeks 8 and 9 are going to be good… but I could be dead wrong.
The Falcons are going into a bye week on a good note after they beat the Commanders in Week 4. In Week 6, they get slapped right back down on the griddle with the Bills coming to town.
Then they get their second primetime game of the season and head across the country to San Francisco. That game is three weeks from now, and there’s a chance that their wildly injured roster is going to look a lot better… but even if they’re not, it’s still a frisky team.
They follow that up with a game against the Dolphins and then one in New England. Those are two teams that will either be completely disjointed or solid and rolling. Again, let’s think that those teams will get right and start to roll. If that’s the case, the Falcons are going to be in a tough spot.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ Q2 is mostly about how bad their matchups are. Their Thursday night game in Week 5 against the Rams is gutting. The 49ers have been absolutely wrecked by injuries at a level society hasn’t seen since the Spanish Flu epidemic in 1918, and now they don’t have the horses to run with Sean McVay’s team.
They do get a mini-bye before they head to Tampa Bay in Week 6, but they’re still going to be banged up. It’s hard to imagine that they’ll be able to deal with Todd Bowles' exotic pressures and a pretty solid offense.
If they get healthy by their Week 7 date with the Falcons, they’ll be peachy. If they’re not healthy, they’re going to have a tough job keeping up with Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta offense (if it’s clicking).
They end their Q2 by heading to Houston. The Texans’ offense is dog water, but that defense is still pretty mean. That’s going to be trouble for a 49ers offense that looks much more pathetic than anyone imagined.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders get the fifth spot not just because of the teams, but also because of their travel schedule. They’re heading to Los Angeles to play an angry Chargers in Week 5. They follow that up with a primetime game against the Bears.
Last season, their game against the Bears was the game where Jayden Daniels threw the underthrown Hail Mary that was tipped to Noah Brown for a touchdown as time expired. You have to imagine Chicago is going to be pretty salty about that.
Then they get a divisional game in Dallas, where Daniels is going to have to out-gun Dak Prescott. They end their Q2 with another primetime game, but this time it’s in Kansas City.
We saw how good the Chiefs’ offense looked when it got Xavier Worthy back, and come Week 8, it’ll be KC’s second game with Rasheed Rice. You have to imagine that things will be flowing even better for them at that point.
Easiest NFL schedules for the next 4 weeks
Bad teams can have easy schedules and still lose games. If the sea is smooth sailing, but you don’t have a sail, you’re still not going to go anywhere (looking at you, New England).
Chicago Bears
The Bears' next four games are a cake walk. They go on a bye, then play the Commanders, a winless Saints, the unbelievably disappointing Ravens, and a Bengals team that’s in contention for the No.1 overall draft pick.
The problem is that it’s the Bears, and they’ll probably find a way to screw this whole thing up.
Dallas Cowboys
It’s a very normal and easy schedule for the Cowboys. No island games, not a whole lot of travel or anything like that. It’s just two bad teams, a team that’s on the verge of being bad, and a team that might be okay.
It’s the Jets, the Panthers, the Commanders, and the Broncos. The problem for the Cowboys is that their defense is unbelievably terrible, and they’ll be a good matchup for every other offense… even if the Panthers’ offense is a broken toilet.
That doesn’t mean the schedule is harder; it just means losses are going to be damning for Dallas.
Indianapolis Colts
Two teams are in the running for having a surprising season, and it’s for two completely different reasons: The Ravens are pathetic, and the Colts are juggernauts… and it doesn’t look like the Colts are going to slow down anytime soon.
Their next four games are against the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Chargers, and the Titans. Sprinkling the Chargers in the middle there is tough, but that’ll be a good test after a couple weeks of relative cupcakes.
Philadelphia Eagles
In the first four weeks, the Eagles played the Cowboys, the Chiefs, the Rams, and the Buccaneers… and they made it through without a loss.
The second quarter of The Birds' season is significantly easier than that. They get the Broncos, the Giants, the Vikings, and then the Giants again. All of those teams are still trying to figure out who they are, are dealing with injuries, or, in the Giants' case, are straight-up bad.
It’s not important in this conversation, but they get a nice breather with their Week 9 bye before they head into a Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Bears stretch.
New England Patriots
After their Week 5 game against the Bills, the Patriots have a ruthlessly easy slate of teams: The Saints, the Titans, and the Browns. That’s three teams that have a total of one win right now.
The problem is that they have three consecutive road games. That’s a big problem because teams have a lot of trouble winning that third road game (they win less than 40 percent of the time).
If it weren’t for an easily avoidable scheduling blunder that the NFL makes multiple times a season, the Pats would have the second or third easiest next four games.