It's about to be a beautiful week of football with storylines abound now that we're three weeks in the 2025 season. New Green Bay Packers star Micah Parsons will be on the road in Dallas to face his former team, the Cowboys, while the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs are set for a showdown between AFC contenders, but one that is actually between 1-2 teams after slow starts. There's that and so, so much more to unpack as we dive into our NFL picks for Week 4.
We've obviously had our share of surprises so far as we come into Week 4. Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts have been the talk of the NFL thus far. But how do we make our predictions as they now have to go on the road to face a good Los Angeles Rams team? More importantly, though, we also have to look for the spots where things get weird. For instance, which matchup this week is going to be like the Cleveland Browns upsetting the Packers last Sunday? It's always in the cards, and we have to know where to look.
The good news is that we bounced back last week for winning records both straight-up and against the spread. There's still work to do ATS when it comes to our predictions, but it's progress that has us moving in the right direction. But let's keep it going now as we get into our NFL picks for every Week 4 game with predictions straight-up and ATS across the board.
2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 32-16 (Last Week: 11-5) | ATS Record: 23-25 (Last Week: 9-7)
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NFL Week 4 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 4 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Seahawks at Cardinals (TNF) | Cardinals | Cardinals +1.5 |
Vikings at Steelers (Dublin) | Vikings | Vikings -2.5 |
Eagles at Buccaneers | Eagles | Buccaneers +3.5 |
Saints at Bills | Bills | Bills -16.5 |
Browns at Lions | Lions | Lions -8.5 |
Titans at Texans | Texans | Titans +7.5 |
Chargers at Giants | Chargers | Chargers -6.5 |
Commanders at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons +1.5 |
Panthers at Patriots | Patriots | Patriots -5.5 |
Colts at Rams | Rams | Colts +3.5 |
Jaguars at 49ers | 49ers | 49ers -3.5 |
Ravens at Chiefs | Ravens | Ravens -2.5 |
Bears at Raiders | Bears | Bears +1.5 |
Packers at Cowboys (SNF) | Packers | Packers -6.5 |
Jets at Dolphins (MNF) | Jets | Jets +2.5 |
Bengals at Broncos (MNF) | Broncos | Bengals +7.5 |
It's a loaded slate this week with Parsons playing the Cowboys for the first time, the Ravens-Chiefs showdown between stumbling AFC contenders, but also the first international game of the season as the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers will be playing in Dublin early on Sunday morning in the U.S. with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff.
But there are others to catch your attention as well. The Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Rams facing off might sneakily be one of the games of Week 4, the same of which is true of Eagles-Buccaneers. And there will surely be plenty of eyes on MetLife Stadium as Jaxson Dart makes his NFL debut for the Giants, but does so while taking on a stout Chargers defense.
More than anything, though, we're just hoping that the winners are flowing with our picks — but we need to highlight a few games and predictions that might jump off the page this week.
Toughest NFL Week 4 prediction to make
Ravens (-2.5) at Chiefs
There probably aren't many football fans who had both the Ravens and Chiefs coming into their marquee Week 4 matchup with both teams sitting at 1-2, but here we are. That complicates things in itself, but most reasonable people still believe that these are two likely AFC contenders, and this game sits as a potential early-season turning point for both squads. That doesn't make picking the game any easier, though.
On the Kansas City side of the equation, we did see some life from the Chiefs offense this past week in primetime against the Giants. While it's the Giants, the defense is clearly that team's biggest strength, so that's worth something, especially while the defense in KC has remained solid. For Baltimore, though, it's just been inconsistent. There have been eye-popping plays on both sides of the ball, but late-game mistakes, head-scratching play-calling, and ill-timed breakdowns have bitten them in their two losses.
Ultimately, I come down to the fact that I think Baltimore has a gear they can reach, particularly with Lamar Jackson and the offense, that the Chiefs can't match. That doesn't make me feel too confident given that such a gear hasn't protected them to this point, but it was my deciding factor in this Week 4 matchup specifically.
Easiest NFL Week 4 pick on the board
Packers (-6.5) at Cowboys
While the fanfare and narratives are going to be strong for Parsons making his return to Dallas and facing his former team, let's not pretend like the Packers aren't an absolute mismatch right now for the Cowboys.
If there's anything that the last two weeks have confirmed, it's that the Cowboys defense might legitimately be the worst in the NFL at this point. Caleb Williams looked like an All-Pro this past week, and Russell Wilson threw for a career-high 450 yards the week prior. There's nothing that we've seen from Matt Eberflus' side of the ball that suggests that they'll be able to offer any real resistance to Jordan Love, especially in Matt LaFleur's scheme and with Green Bay's familiarity when it comes to Eberflus from his tenure with the Bears.
Beyond that, though, the Cowboys' best chance of competing with the state of their defense is to simply get into a shootout. While I do believe Dak Prescott is capable of that, I worry about it with an offensive line that's been good, not great matched up with Parsons and with CeeDee Lamb likely out for this game. That doesn't exactly scream a recipe for success entering this matchup. When you then consider that the Packers have simply owned Dallas in recent years, this one not only feels like a Green Bay win, it feels like one that could quite quickly get out of hand.
The pick that probably has you scratching your head
Bengals (+7.5) at Broncos
Considering that Cincinnati just got its doors blown off by the Carson Wentz-led Vikings, you're probably looking at this pick against the spread and wondering how in the hell I could possibly trust the Bengals. And frankly, I almost agree with you, because nothing that we saw from Jake Browning suggests that this team should be capable of going on the road and making a game of it.
However, there are two things at play here. First is the simple fact that the Broncos aren't nearly the team that many thought they were going to be coming into the season. Bo Nix and the offense have failed to level up to this point, and there's at least a chance that the Bengals can keep that trend moving on. Beyond that, though, things really snowballed for Cincy in last week's loss, including multiple pick-sixes. That's the variance of the NFL, and even if I'm not high on this team's upside, the luck should regress toward the mean this week with defensive touchdowns.
I still think the Broncos are the better team and, at home, should win. But it really wouldn't surprise me if the Bengals keep it within a touchdown — especially considering the Saints only lost by eight points in Week 1.