NFL Week 3 picks and predictions, straight-up and ATS: Packers roll, Cowboys upset-minded

Just two weeks into the 2025 season, the NFL has already given us a healthy mix of things that we should've always expected and things that I don't believe anyone could've. The fact that teams like the Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are looking like juggernauts shouldn't shock anyone. It also shouldn't come as a surprise that a Dallas Cowboys team that traded Micah Parsons is having some defensive issues. But you have to be surprised that a team like the Indianapolis Colts is one of the hottest in the league while the Denver Broncos appear entirely out of sorts. That makes for mystery and excitement as we get into our NFL Week 3 picks.

I'm going to shoot you straight here — last week's NFL picks were an abomination, an eyesore, and not at all what we were looking for here. Sure, we were fine straight-up, but we got entirely too cute against the spread, and it bit us hard to drop us below .500 for the season ATS already. There's still plenty of time to recover, but this is the lesson, especially early in the year, to not try and get too creative or galaxy-brained when making these predictions.

Let's hope that's what we've landed on, because now we're into our NFL Week 3 picks with predictions for every game straight-up and against the spread.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 21-11 (Last Week: 10-6) | ATS Record: 14-18 (Last Week: 4-12)

NFL Week 3 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

It's a fascinating NFL Week 3 slate upon us. Sure, there are some matchups that appear to be quite lopsided based on what we think we know at this point. However, there are also some tight matchups with some outside-looking-in teams that could make a big statement. Whether you're talking about the Steelers on the road in New England, the Cowboys on the road at the Bears, or several others, this should be one heck of a fun week to dig our teeth into starting on Thursday night.

Toughest NFL Week 2 prediction to make

Steelers at Patriots (+1.5)

One of the most difficult spots to be in is where you have two teams facing off early in the season who have been, quite simply, hard to get a read on. The Patriots lost a tight one in Week 1 to the Raiders, who looked bad on Monday night, then got into an edge-of-your-seat shootout with the Dolphins that they won. Meanwhile, the Steelers outlasted the Jets to open the year, but then fell apart against the Seahawks.

So, what gives when these two teams now meet in Foxborough? For me, even if I think that Pittsburgh might have more top-to-bottom roster talent, I believe that Drake Maye and the Patriots are actually the better-coached team right now. They seem to be establishing an offensive identity and, though the defense isn't all that promising right now, they have enough talent to disrupt a predictable offense, even with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

Plus, with the home-field advantage, that gives me a slight lean to New England as well. But I'd be lying if I told you I felt the most confident in that.

Easiest NFL Week 1 pick on the board

Packers (-8.5) at Browns

On the flip side in terms of confidence, there are few numbers you could put on the Packers as favorites in this game, even on the road, that I wouldn't be rushing to the window to put my ticket in for Green Bay.

Through the first two weeks of the season, I've tabbed Jordan Love and the Packers as the team to beat in the NFC. So, when I see them getting three points less than the Ravens did last week — a game in which Baltimore went on to win by 24 points, it should be said — it's easy for me to parlay that into what Green Bay could do. Not only do I believe that the Browns defense can't hold up for 60 minutes against Love and this Packers offense, but the Green Bay defense should continue to get its flowers and make life arduous for Joe Flacco and Cleveland.

I'll stand by the idea that Cleveland isn't as bad as some people will make them out to be throughout this season. At the same time, that's going to be more evident when they face the middle-tier teams in the league. Those contests can be made interesting with this iteration of the Browns playing solidly. Against the upper echelon of the league, however, the talent gap is going to be evident every single time.

The pick that probably has you scratching your head

Cardinals (+1.5) at 49ers

What am I to honestly make of the fact that the 49ers and Cardinals have played two close games to this point against teams that, frankly, they probably shouldn't have? Well, I'm ending up on the Arizona side of this matchup, despite the fact that San Francisco is both home and the favorite in this matchup. You don't have to agree with me, but I think I'm onto something here.

For the Cardinals side of the equation, the way that their close wins have played out can still inspire some optimism depending on how you choose to look at it. They played horribly against the Saints in Week 1 and still came out on top, which can be the mark of a good team. Meanwhile, in the win over Carolina, they dominated that game, but took their foot off the gas a little too soon, and almost got clipped by it. But what that does tell me is that the makings of a truly Top 10 team in the league is here, they just need to figure it out.

As for the Niners, the reason for their close games feels different. Mac Jones actually played wonderfully in relief of injured Brock Purdy again, so I'm actually not including him in this equation. At the same time, this 49ers roster has been ravaged already by injuries, and it feels as if Kyle Shanahan is doing everything he can to patch things up to grind out wins. That's worked thus far, but against a team with the upside of Arizona, especially in a divisional matchup, I worry it might be too much to overcome.