In the wake of the New England Patriots surprising win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, the conclusion most pundits have drawn is a simple one: maybe we don't know as much as we think we do. While it's far too soon to count any team out after five weeks – minus maybe the 0-5 New York Jets and a few others – this NFL season has brought with it some surprises no one saw coming.
My preseason picks for each division were as follows:
Division | Preseason pick |
|---|---|
AFC East | Buffalo Bills |
AFC North | Baltimore Ravens |
AFC South | Houston Texans |
AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs |
NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles |
NFC North | Green Bay Packers |
NFC South | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
NFC West | Los Angeles Rams |
Through five weeks, I feel fairly confident in those predictions holding up, minus the Ravens, which have started the season 1-4 and were without Lamar Jackson this past week due to injury. All of those presumed winners are very much in play, though not all are winning their respective divisions as of this writing.
But, as we know by now, the NFL is impossible to predict. There's a good chance I'll look back at this very story in a few weeks and wonder what the heck I was thinking. Such is the way of life in the NFL, but it should be noted that the teams listed below are far from guaranteed to win their respective divisions or make the playoffs outright. That doesn't mean we can't have some fun at their expense, though.
AFC East: New England Patriots
After beating the Bills in their first real test of the season, the Patriots are 3-2 on the season and just a game behind Buffalo for first place with the tiebreaker in hand. Drake Maye has played much like the quarterback New England fans hoped he could be. Maye is ahead of schedule, and he has a competent coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel.
Whether the Patriots win the East or not, it's undeniable that they're headed in the right direction. New England's next step is to add weapons around Maye so that he isn't asked to do too much behind a shoddy offensive line that is still learning to play together. Drafting Will Campbell was a good start, but he alone cannot hold together this offensive front.
The Patriots upcoming schedule has plenty of winnable games, and they could put some pressure on the Bills should they falter again. Buffalo hosts the AFC Champion Chiefs on Nov. 2, for example, in a game that could tip the scales in the division and conference.
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, I'm aware the Steelers hold an edge in the AFC North thanks to all three of their division opponents losing on their bye week. However, the Steelers were not predicted to win the division before the regular season, and most assumed they'd miss the postseason with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Those pundits who thought a Mike Tomlin-coached team wouldn't be in the mix evidently haven't watched the NFL over the last decade-plus.
For better or worse, Tomlin's Steelers always finish over .500, and in what looks to be a weak division through five weeks, the North could be there for the taking. As flawed as Pittsburgh is, they play a brand of offensive football that works perfectly for Rodgers. He gets the ball out quickly, and his targets are able to make plays in space.
If the Ravens are out of the picture – and I have a hard time belieiving that's the case – the Steelers are indeed the team to beat in the North.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
Will the real Jaguars please stand up? This team confuses the hell out of me. Trevor Lawrence is inconsistent at times, and Travis Hunter is nowhere to be found through five weeks. The Jags invested all that draft capital to trade up for Hunter, and he was expected to make an impact right away.
I started by pointing out the Jags faults because, again, this team is 3-1 on the season. If Jacksonville is winning games in spite of their flaws, then just imagine how well they can play once Lawrence, Hunter and the Jags offense really starts humming. With Liam Coen in charge, I have faith in the Jaguars to compete with the likes of the Colts and Texans in one of the more unpredictable divisions in football.
AFC West: Denver Broncos
The Broncos, much like the Jaguars above, haven't played their best football to date. Denver quarterback Bo Nix is in a sophomore slump of sorts, but there's a reason Sean Payton believes in this kid so much. Nix played far better in the second half of the season last year than the first half. If he can replicate that success, there's no telling how far the Broncos can go.
The problem for Denver are the teams standing in their way. The Chargers look formidable, though they can still find a way to lose each and every week. The Chiefs are back, it would seem, and thus should be seen as the favorites to win the West for the 18th time in their history.
What Denver has that the Chargers don't, at least on paper, is arguably the most complete defense in the NFL. It's what makes them so dangerous, and why Nix only has to do the bare minimum to win most weeks when they're playing to their full potential.
NFC East: Washington Commanders
The Commanders made the NFC Championship last season with a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels. That makes it all the more surprising that they're flying under the radar this season. Yet, the Commanders play in the same division as the Super Bowl champion Eagles, who were undefeated until this week when they lost to the Broncos. Philadelphia gave up 18 fourth quarter points to Denver, and Washington gained a game in the standings as a result.
Washington has survived an early-season injury onslaught which saw players like Daniels and Deebo Samuel miss time. However, Dan Quinn's team is built for postseason success. Whether they win the division or are forced to clinch a Wild Card spot, a playoff berth is expected in the nation's capital.
These two teams play twice after Dec. 20, which gives the Commanders a chance to do the unthinkable and unseat Philly as division champs. All they have to do until then is stay in the mix, and right now, they're achieving that goal.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
You just can't count out a Kevin O'Connell coached team. O'Connell's quarterback situation is a mess. JJ McCarthy didn't make the necessary strides when he was healthy, and Carson Wentz has looked...very much like Carson Wentz ever since the Vikings left on their European tour. Against the Steelers, Wentz was turnover-prone, and his comeback attempt fell short in large part thanks to his early-game shortcomings. Wentz was brutal for most of the game against the Browns in London, as well, proving once and for all he isn't the answer or the second coming of Sam Darnold.
Despite all of this, the Vikings are 3-2. Their defense is coached by the unpredictable Brian Flores, and is one of the best in football against the pass. If Minnesota can find some sort of solution at QB – and that could come in the form of McCarthy when he returns from injury – look out.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
I mean, look, I would be shocked if the Falcons took the NFC South from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Speaking of dark horses, the Bucs are emerging as a popular Super Bowl pick in the NFC. They've played that well, and Baker Mayfield is an absolute stud.
That being said, the Falcons are 2-2 on the season. They lost to the Buccaneers by just a field goal, and defeated two other teams on this list in the Vikings and Commanders. While a 30-0 dud against the Panthers could come back to haunt them later this season as they compete for a playoff berth, we'll find out a lot about this team in the next few weeks. Michael Penix Jr. and Co. face the Bills and 49ers in back-to-back weeks after their bye. Good luck with that.
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
The NFC West might be the best division top-to-bottom in the NFL. I picked the Seahawks as a dark horse, and wouldn't be remotely surprised if they prove me right and make the postseason. Seattle's offense has been humming to start the season thanks to Sam Darnold, who graded as one of the best QBs in the NFL per PFF heading into last week's game. While Seattle fell to the Buccaneers by three points on Sunday, this team could surpise some people this season.
Mike Macdonald's defense has to show up at some point. The former Ravens DC can disguise blitz packages with the best of them, and while the Legion of Boom isn't coming back to Seattle anytime soon, they should be able to do enough to keep their offense in the game.
The 49ers lead the West at 4-1, but they have been ravaged by injuries early this season. Eventually, that will catch up with them, and the Seahawks will be ready to pounce.