Patrick Mahomes' case for best NFL quarterback isn't based on actual stats anymore

Patrick Mahomes used to dominate quarterback stats. Now, it's all about vibes.
Feb 9, 2025; Patrick Mahomes walks off the field at the Caesars Superdome after Super Bowl LIX. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Feb 9, 2025; Patrick Mahomes walks off the field at the Caesars Superdome after Super Bowl LIX. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

As he chases the "ghost of number 12" (shoutout to LeBron), Patrick Mahomes can rest easy that the rest of the NFL is starting to fear him how they feared Tom Brady.

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler recently released the company's annual composite Top 10 QB's for 2025 list, and for the third year in a row, Mahomes sits comfortably on top of the league's quarterback mountain. What is significant, however, is that No. 15 had a steep fall in voting share, down to a measly (for him) 60 percent of first place votes from all but one for the 2024 rankings.

And for good reason, too. After basically lapping the field in nearly every major QB stat since he first started in 2018, Mahomes' 2025 produced a slew of major all time lows since he took over for Kansas City full time, including TDs, TD%, Total Yds, and Yards/Completion (you can see a full breakdown of his year-to-year box scores on Pro Football Reference). And according to Stat Muse, relative to the league's other starting QB's, Mahomes just barely squeaked into the top third on multiple metrics including yards per game, completion percentage, and both total touchdowns and yards.

Here's why those stats don't matter for Patrick Mahomes

The rest of the NFL must be looking at the Chiefs like a cartoon dog looks at a whole ham hock going into the 2026 season. As unstoppable as they seem historically, Kansas City still won five games by a field goal or less (tack on five more if you stretch the parameters to single possession wins), and got absolutely railroaded by Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Combine that with Mahomes' suddenly mortal numbers, and it's easy to see how the Bills or Ravens or whoever is up next is frothing at the mouth.

But this season does deserve to be observed with proper context. Fowler's rankings sums up how truly dire the Chiefs' situation was, and how, without Mahomes there, it would have been reasonable to assume that they wouldn't have even sniffed the Super Bowl.

"OL in decline, particularly at tackle, WR group completely cleaned out by injury, [Travis] Kelce not near the same player," an anonymous scout told Fowler for his piece. "I thought he had more command of time/score/situation and better fundamentals from within the pocket than ever. He's a one-man army. And no NFL coach wants to deal with him. Complete dawg. No one like him. Maybe [Joe] Burrow, but Burrow isn't as dangerous as a player."

Dangerous is the right word. Even in a down year, Mahomes' situational football was still near inarguably the best in the NFL. Fowler noted that he still led the league in third down QBR (90.4) and passes resulting in first downs (53.1 percent).

And let's not forget that stats never really told the whole story about the NFL's GOAT, either. Take Tom Brady's 2010 MVP season: FF Today placed his major counting stats also at the tail end of the league's top 10 quarterbacks. And yes, the glaring exception to that example were his league leading 36 touchdowns, but the point stands: hard counting stats do not a GOAT make. Otherwise, Peyton Manning would wear the horns.

It is tempting to take Patrick Mahomes down a peg. The Chiefs' success is getting annoying at this point, and it is so frustrating to witness a golden era of quarterbacks who would be replete with rings and MVP trophies in any other era getting smothered by one man (sorry, Philip Rivers).

But Patrick Mahomes stays in the driver's seat, at least for now. And if the Chiefs stay at least one more player healthy than they did last season, he's bound to have a massive "shut up" year.